In the days leading up to Friday’s podcast interview of Dr. Anthony Fauci, I canvassed team officials about what questions they might ask the infectious disease expert, and one staffer seemed to be looking for some help with the context leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
When does Dr. Fauci foresee a time, the staffer asked, when fans are again packed into ballparks in crowds of 30,000 or 40,000 squeezing past one another shoulder to shoulder on their way to concession stands on the concourses?
The answer to that question, the team employee added as an aside, might go a long way to determining how aggressive contenders are in adding payroll this summer. If there are more fans in the stands, there will be more income, and perhaps for some front offices, the financial restraints placed by owners will be loosened or removed after a winter in which so many teams have slashed payrolls.
Dr. Fauci was cautious in his response to that question. Similarly, there will be some owners who are just as careful about committing big dollars to midseason additions after more than a year of diminished revenues. Some owners might be more aggressive, knowing that one way or another, there will be a new collective bargaining agreement after the current CBA expires in December. Historically, revenues and spending climb after a deal between the owners and players is signed.
For those teams that look to augment their rosters before July 31, here is a list of players who may well be available:
1. Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants
San Francisco extended a one-year, $18.9 million qualifying offer to the right-hander over the winter, a deal that makes sense for both sides. Gausman will be well-paid in 2021, and the Giants — not expected to contend with the Dodgers and the Padres for the NL West title — have a valued starting pitcher who could be flipped for assets in the trade market. San Francisco, in fact, could be heavy in trade targets this summer.
2. (and 3). Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
The two veteran infielders, heavily adorned in championship rings, are entering the final season of their multiyear contracts. If they perform effectively, the Giants could either dump the last dollars in their deals, or, more likely, San Francisco could pick up some salary and get prospects in return. For any contender looking for shortstop help, the left-handed-hitting Crawford could be attractive (hello, Yankees). If Belt continues to more effectively handle fastballs the way that he did last year, there will be suitors for a hitter with a long history of patience and power; his slash line in 2020 was .309/.425/.591, with that slugging percentage the best of his career, by far.
(By the way: I asked around about the possibility of catcher Buster Posey accepting a trade to a contender in the midst of what might be his final season, in an effort to win one more championship, and the early perception of Posey is that he might prefer to reach the finish line with the Giants. The fact that he cited family considerations in opting out of last season might have been an indication about how he might feel about waiving his no-trade clause).
4. Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
Colorado’s handling of the All-Star shortstop continues to be perplexing to other teams, who have assumed that the Rockies’ ownership would eventually give the OK to market Story for prospects before he walks away as a free agent. When Colorado executed its widely panned trade of third baseman Nolan Arenado, the explanation of owner Dick Monfort — for the frantic inclusion of $50 million in return for a package of prospects from the Cardinals — was that the team didn’t want to see Arenado walk away as a free agent in the fall of 2021 and get only a draft pick in return.
So why would Story be handled any differently? (To date, there is no indication Story and the Rockies will forge a long-term agreement).
5. A mass of relievers
With free agents taking huge salary hits this winter, no group has been more impacted than the bullpen guys, many of whom have had to settle for one-year contracts. What that means, of course, is that they will be moved freely this summer. Among the dozens and dozens of relievers who signed contracts in this offseason, only nine reached multi-year agreements. So you would assume many of those same relievers (Archie Bradley? Sean Doolittle? Joakim Soria?) signed to one-year deals — and maybe some on two-year contracts — will be swapped in June and July.
6. Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto’s front office was excited to add the respected infielder to its blossoming core of young players for 2021, but Semien is on a one-year deal. The Blue Jays believe they’ll compete again. If they don’t — and their chances could be impacted if the expanded playoff format isn’t adopted for 2021 — then Semien may become a trade chip.
7. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
Of the team’s handful of impending free agents, including first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Baez, Bryant is probably the least likely to sign a long-term deal. The Cubs have been willing to talk about dealing him for a couple of years now. At some point, they’re likely going to get a deal done with another team.
8. Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies
The NL East is arguably the best division in baseball; all five teams are actually trying to win in 2021. Philadelphia has an enormous challenge. With David Dombrowski in his first year running the team’s baseball operations, he is in good position politically to wave the white flag in July if the Phillies lag behind the Braves, Mets, Nationals and Marlins; after all, for the most part, this is not his team. It was built by someone else. With his plate discipline and experience, McCutchen, if healthy, would be attractive to contenders.
9. Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
It made sense for Archer to go back to Tampa Bay in an effort to rehabilitate his career. For the Rays, he is a pliable asset because he’s on a one-year, $6.5 million deal, regardless of whether they are in contention.
10. James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
Everything written about Archer applies to Paxton — an experienced starting pitcher returning to his old team on a one-year deal.
11. (and 12). Jake Arrieta and Zach Davies, Chicago Cubs
Remember how the Cubs got Arrieta initially? The Cubs had signed right-hander Scott Feldman, and once they fell out of contention in 2013, Feldman was flipped to the Orioles for Arrieta, who figured out how to make his unusual mechanics work and became a Cy Young contender. If the Cubs fall behind in the NL Central, they could make a similar move with Arrieta and Davies, both pitching on one-year deals in 2021.
13. Joc Pederson, Chicago Cubs
There are a lot of Cubs on this list, but it makes sense, because Chicago and the Giants are the two clubs best-positioned to pivot into midseason sellers. Pederson, like Arrieta, Davies and Bryant, will be eligible for free agency in the fall, making it easier to move them if the Cubs struggle.
14. Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants
He’s pitching on a one-year, $3 million deal, a salary that could make him attractive if he’s productive and healthy.
Market depends on number of playoff spots
The question of how many teams are aggressive buyers is also going to be tied to whether Major League Baseball and the Players Association agree to a system of expanded playoffs for 2021. The more postseason spots available, the more hope there is for fringy contenders — like last summer, when the Cincinnati Reds jumped in and made late deals for the likes of Archie Bradley and Brian Goodwin. It stands to reason that with fewer playoff spots available, teams will be more likely to be sellers leading up to the trade deadline, and at a lot of positions, it’ll be a buyer’s market.
Evaluators around baseball look at the National League playoff picture as being particularly well-defined if the old playoff format remains in place. The Dodgers and Padres appear significantly better than any other teams in the NL West; the NL East has the Braves, Mets, Nationals, Phillies and Marlins.
“It’d be a shock if you don’t get two (playoff) teams out of the West, and two out of the East,” said one staffer. “Somebody wins the NL Central. (The lack of competitiveness) might actually make it easier for teams to decide to sell.”
Examining San Diego, by look at Detroit
In the last decade of Mike Ilitch’s life, the Detroit Tigers owner seemed to have made up his mind that he was going to do whatever he could to give the team the best chance to win a world championship. In that time, he greenlit the trade for Miguel Cabrera as well as the massive contract extension which, incredibly, still has five years and $154 million remaining. Becoming a go-to landing spot for agent Scott Boras and his clients, Ilitch agreed to sign sluggers Magglio Ordonez and Prince Fielder. IIlitch OK’d one of them most expensive deals for a DH, Victor Martinez’s four-year, $68 million contract. (More than what left fielder/DH Marcell Ozuna signed for this winter, with the Braves.)
Year after year, Ilitch fostered one of the highest payrolls in baseball. All the while, executives with other teams assumed that once he did not run the team, the payroll would come down dramatically. Which is exactly what has happened after he passed away in 2017 and his son, Chris, began to run the organization more traditionally and less like a personal baseball championship project. The Tigers now operate with a budget more typical of a mid-market/small-market team.
The Tigers payrolls, according to Cot’s, with the clear delineation of before and after Mike Ilitch’s passing:
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2013: $149 million
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2014: $164 million
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2015: $173 million
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2016: $199 million
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2017: $200 million
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2018: $125 million
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2019: $115 million
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2020: 60-game season
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2021: About $85 million
In Mike Ilitch’s last decade, the Tigers were very entertaining, making the playoffs four straight years and the World Series in 2012, when they were swept by the San Francisco Giants.
This is a roundabout way of diving into the question of the sustainability of the San Diego Padres‘ spending in recent winters, which rival officials believe goes beyond the resource potential of the market. Peter Seidler, the team’s 61-year-old owner, has survived two bouts with cancer. In the eyes of folks with other longtime executives, he is taking the same aim as Ilitch did, determining that he wants a winning baseball team. Seidler spent $144 million on first baseman Eric Hosmer, jumped into the bidding late for Manny Machado and invested $300 million in the third baseman, and recently, he signed off on landmark $340-million signing of Fernando Tatis, Jr. — the third largest contract in baseball history.
“I don’t why they didn’t just give him 20 years,” one rival official said with some sarcasm, taken aback by the long-term risk assumed by the Padres.
Additionally, San Diego traded for pricey starter Yu Darvish, lefty Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, in the team’s ongoing push to overtake the Dodgers at the top of the NL West.
Is this all sustainable? Probably not. There probably will be a time when the Padres’ payroll will be cut to fit its market. But for San Diego fans, there’s no reason to worry about that now. The Padres have a fun and exciting team, now that Seidler has taken a step that previous owners like Ray Kroc, Tom Werner and John Moores would not take — and they probably will win a lot of games in years to come.
The size of the open market
The number of free agents continues to grow year to year, as more and more players are recycled back into the market every fall. As spring training begins, only about two dozen players have signed multi-year deals — meaning that about 200 players are aligned to go back into the open market again next year, with that volume once again gnawing on the leverage of the mid-level players. Every so often, one official noted, you see a deal like Fernando Tatis Jr.’s, or that of George Springer, and the industry will focus on that one massive contract.
“But it’s like a shell game — if you get distracted by the misdirection (of the big, big deals), you’re not seeing what’s happening to all of these other players.”
What else is happening
On the podcast, Dr. Fauci described what he would say to any player asking about the coronavirus vaccines; he also presented a forecast of when there might be fans in the stands, and how he did not want to risk the ire of Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer. On the same podcast, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts talked about Fernando Tatis Jr. and compared the Dodgers-Padres rivalry with others he has been involved in over his career. Rays manager Kevin Cash discussed the messaging to his players following the departure of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez discussed the sustainability of the Padres’ payroll increases in recent years.
Noteworthy
At the time that the Mets first signed Tim Tebow, I told radio host Paul Finebaum that Tebow was closer to being the Philly Phanatic than he was a legitimate prospect for the big leagues. The challenge of learning how to hit professional pitching for someone in his late 20s was always going to be an extremely difficult challenge for him, and it was immediately apparent that he lacked the bat speed necessary to be a major-leaguer. But through his time in the Mets’ organization, Tebow never expected or asked for special treatment and put in significant work. By all accounts, he was an excellent teammate — mostly to much younger peers — and wholly embraced the attention he got from fans. He drew eyes to the sport in his four years in the game, posing for pictures and signing autographs, enhancing the experience of paying customers. The notion that he was blocking anyone else’s path to the big leagues was always wildly overblown — only a small percentage of players drafted ultimately reach the big leagues, and Tebow was surrounded by many who would not make it out of the minors. He lived out his dream of trying to reach the big leagues, and by the time he announced last week that he is retiring, Tebow had given far more back to the game than he got. Tim Tebow was great for baseball. … As the winter moved along, the cash made available by the Cubs’ ownership appeared to increase, creating the kind of space needed to sign Arrieta and Pederson. … Speaking of sustainability: Trevor Bauer fired back at the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard on social media the other day, exchanges that drew a lot of attention — and bemused reactions from other organizations. Since Andrew Friedman took over the Dodgers’ baseball operations, the team has veered away from volatility in the clubhouse; they have become buttoned-down, more like Chase Utley than Yasiel Puig. So there is great curiosity within other organizations about how Bauer’s social-media machinations and push for branding will play among the likes of Clayton Kershaw and Justin Turner.