For club executives, the question of whether to manipulate the service time of young players has been like the steroid quandary was for players in the 1990s. Teams have the option of making decisions based entirely in good faith. Some clubs have operated this way. Fernando Tatis Jr. was on the Padres’ Opening Day roster in 2019, for example.
But teams that take this path also run the risk of sacrificing a competitive advantage that most of their opponents have. Other teams get to maintain control over their best young players for longer, gleaning financial benefit along the way. This is what ex-Mariners CEO Kevin Mather talked about out loud in a way that a lot of his peers never did, before he had to resign. For a lot of teams, service-time manipulation has been standard operating procedure.
If there was a time when even small-market teams might feel like they could bypass those bad-faith decisions, it could be in 2021 — the last season before the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Some club officials assume that one way or another, noncompetitive behaviors — like service-time manipulation or tanking — might be addressed. There is a lot of sentiment, even on the management side, that this stuff needs to be cleaned up.
Teams could make decisions based on the anticipation that the rules might change in the next CBA, so holding a worthy player in the minors in 2021 might not really pay off for 2022 and beyond. And because of Mather’s comments and the players’ increasing use of social media to punch back against MLB, there might be even more scrutiny if a top prospect is inexplicably stuck in Triple-A or Double-A.
With all of that in mind, here’s how some of the best prospects could be handled:
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox’s masher has only 245 plate appearances in the minors after being picked third overall in the 2019 draft. But the team seems open-minded about the possibility of opening the season with Vaughn in the big leagues, sharing time at first base and designated hitter with Jose Abreu. Vaughn will turn 23 on April 3. Typically, teams fret about young players adjusting to a DH role. But the White Sox love Vaughn’s makeup, how unflappable and adaptable he is. The White Sox also know that as Abreu moves through the back half of his career, he probably would benefit from more days at DH. It’s possible that like Yordan Alvarez, Vaughn will be perfectly at ease as a DH.
Something else worth watching: The White Sox have been very aggressive in getting their core youngsters under contract — Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez. Vaughn seems like a natural candidate for a multiyear deal.
J.J. Bleday, Miami Marlins
That Derek Jeter is among what is a diminishing number of former players running baseball ops departments probably works for the Marlins’ prospects, because Jeter is on the record about how he doesn’t like service-time machinations. Rather, Miami’s roster choices are seemingly almost entirely merit-based, so it’ll be interesting to see how they handle Bleday. The fourth overall pick in 2019, Bleday played 38 games in High A that season and no games last year. Plus, the Marlins have some depth among outfielders. Bleday’s chances for forcing his way into the big league lineup probably could be augmented if MLB and the players’ association find a way for implementation of the universal DH in 2021.
Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners
That Kelenic suffered a knee strain last week takes pressure off the Mariners to quickly promote him to the big leagues. After he recovers, Seattle can start him in the minors to continue his development — he has played just 21 games above Double-A — and wait for him to force his way to the big leagues.
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
The superstar prospect is expected to start the year in the minor leagues after losing a year of development in 2020. But he is highly advanced and a great athlete. If he dominates early, it might be possible that he pushes his way to the big leagues during the 2021 season. With Willy Adames established at shortstop for Tampa Bay, Franco might be more likely to break in at another spot, like third base.
Austin Martin, Toronto Blue Jays
With the addition of George Springer and Marcus Semien, there is not necessarily an open spot for Martin, the fifth overall pick in last year’s draft. Other than a handful of exhibition at-bats, he still hasn’t played in an official professional game. But the Jays took him because his skills as a hitter are so advanced. Toronto might be open to promoting him to the big leagues depending on its needs there. The Jays will continue to move him around to different positions, maintaining flexibility in how they use him.
Marco Luciano, San Francisco Giants
He’s just 19 years old, but draws comparisons to some of the more physical shortstops in baseball, from Xander Bogaerts to Carlos Correa. There is a question about whether or not he’ll be able to stay at shortstop — the same kind of question that was asked for years about Cal Ripken, Corey Seager and Correa. Luciano’s path to the big leagues could be slowed, however, by the loss of development time in 2020. While he is generating a lot of excitement in the Giants’ camp this spring, he has not played above rookie ball. If you gave truth serum to the folks running baseball operations in San Francisco, there probably wouldn’t be a lot of expectation that the team will contend in 2021. Rather, it’s a transition year, in which possible trades of Brandon Belt and others might be explored. No matter how great Luciano looks this spring, the Giants can reasonably hope he gets more time in the minors before getting the call.
If things were different at the beginning for Bryant …
Kris Bryant‘s career began amid speculation — an assumption, really — that the Chicago Cubs delayed his promotion to the big leagues to give themselves an extra season to control his career. His agent, Scott Boras, made the media rounds that spring to loudly protest. Eventually, the union filed a grievance on his behalf — one it lost.
Bryant’s career began with a lie — the team acting in bad faith, as many teams have in the past decade with the initial promotion of their best prospects. Later, the Cubs tried and failed to reach an agreement on a long-term deal. And over the most recent winter, some rival executives were surprised that the Cubs even tendered a contract to Bryant.
Bryant, 29, recently talked about his baseball experience: “It really got to me sometimes. The stuff I was hearing. The first trade rumors that started to pop up [in 2018] really got to me. I find myself [thinking], ‘Man, is this even fun anymore? Why did I start playing this game?’ Because it was fun. … There’s a lot of other stuff involved. You make a ton of money and fame and all this. You have to get yourself back to why I started playing.”
This is the business that Bryant chose, and he has always had control of the input on his side. But it’s natural to wonder if Bryant’s career might have played out differently if he wasn’t immediately pounded by that first avalanche reminder that pro baseball is complicated and the teams don’t always have the player’s best interest at heart.
No limitations on Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani arrived in the big leagues with so much advanced notice that he can’t really surprise anyone. But he looks different — stronger by 15 pounds, more physical.
“He doesn’t look like the tall, lanky giraffe you’ve seen in the past,” said one evaluator.
Ohtani drove a home run over the batter’s eye in center field the other day. When he threw live batting practice, his fastball was clocked at 100 mph. In the past, the Angels’ front office worked intently to keep him healthy, monitoring him through what is essentially an unprecedented workload. Now, though, it’s as if the careful blueprint has been set aside. Ohtani works out with the other pitchers, playing catch with Andrew Heaney. After he finishes his pitcher’s fielding practice and side work, he joins the hitters.
There is no prescribed schedule in place; rather, he’ll be monitored like his peers are monitored. If he’s tired, if he needs a rest, manager Joe Maddon will back off. If Ohtani feels good, then he’ll continue to pitch — as a starter pitching — and hit, and Maddon will keep running him out there. He won’t be limited to one start a week on the mound, and there might be times when he’s in the lineup the day after he pitches.
It’s still not entirely clear whether it’s practical to expect that Ohtani can consistently serve as a two-way player in the big leagues, or if he needs to pitch exclusively, or hit exclusively. This year, it seems as if he’s going to go full-speed ahead in all that he does after an offseason of diligent training. Maybe he’ll determine for himself whether he can realize the dream of making an impact as a pitcher and a hitter.
“He is big X-factor,” said one evaluator who has seen him in camp. “He’s got as much of a chance as anybody to have a high impact this year.”
Managing those arms
There is no precedent for the puzzle that pitching coaches, managers and front offices face this year in building regimens for starters and relievers. They have to figure out the most appropriate inning and pitch counts, the best times to rest pitchers, the best ways to keep them healthy. Brewers manager Craig Counsell noted that the workload questions linger for older and younger pitchers, for relievers as well as starters.
“We know that we’re going to have innings crunches at points of the year,” he said. “Every team will have pitchers pitch for them that they probably didn’t expect because of this [situation]. You’ll have to prepare a bigger group. I think there will be rest time for pitchers at points in the season. But I don’t think anybody knows how it’s going to turn out.”
“We’ve looked at the schedule, and noticed and highlighted times when we have to be cautious. We will take note of those times.”
The Brewers are among the teams that have talked to their pitchers about transparency — about being honest about how they are feeling. Teams will monitor pitch data and look for red flags, but teams will need feedback from the pitchers.
“If we have lead time, we can prepare for [what’s possible],” Counsell said. “If [the feedback] is too late, then instead of rest, it’s a shutdown.”
The Albies adjustment
Ozzie Albies is much stronger and more dangerous from the right side of the plate, as he demonstrated in the small sample of the postseason last year. As a right-handed hitter, he went 6-for-10 with two homers; as a left-handed hitter, he batted .189 in 42 plate appearances, with opposing managers often working to avoid matchups of Albies against left-handers. But the Braves believe Albies is getting better as a left-handed hitter, through improved patience.
Timing not great for a Syndergaard extension
Sandy Alderson discussed the possibility of a contract-extension conversation with Noah Syndergaard. Still, with all the variables that are in place an agreement early in the season might be out of reach. Syndergaard is 28 years old, and if he has a big comeback season after recovering from Tommy John surgery, then he could garner significant dollars in free agency next winter. If his recovery has some speed bumps — and that is fairly common for pitchers in their first year after elbow reconstruction — then the Mets might be hesitant about being aggressive with an offer. The timing is less than ideal for both sides.
It helps to like your teammates
Anthony Rendon said the other day that earlier in his career he really didn’t buy into the concept of clubhouse chemistry. Now, though, the Angels’ third baseman has come to understand just how much time players and staffers spend together, and that to enjoy that time is important. Along those lines, he told a story about the gregarious Kurt Suzuki — who in his 15h season is a teammate of Rendon for a third time now — and how the longtime catcher helped him in Rendon’s first months in the big leagues. Suzuki would arrange for a cab or car service to the ballpark and invite Rendon to join him. When Rendon tried to offer to share the cost, Suzuki waved him off and told him that there would be a day when it would be Rendon’s turn to pay it forward for some other young player.
Bob Uecker never gets old
Longtime Brewers announcer Bob Uecker is back broadcasting Milwaukee games — at age 87. Counsell remarked that it doesn’t seem like Uecker ages.
“He’s got the secrets, man,” Counsell said. “What’s remarkable about him is that at his age, everything is good with him. His physical condition. It’s just incredible. … He is living the right life.”
Noteworthy
Center fielder Aaron Hicks, in his second year since having Tommy John surgery, has impressed staffers in Yankees camp. The reemergence of the switch-hitter could be important for a team that is so heavily stacked in right-handed hitters. … Center fielder Riley Greene, 20, is opening eyes in the Tigers’ camp. … On Friday’s podcast, Bryce Harper talked about the most exciting player in baseball — and the player with the most swag. … On Thursday, Jesse Rogers discussed how far-ranging a possible Cubs’ midseason selloff might be. … On Wednesday, Len Kasper talked about his departure from the Cubs and previewed the dangerous Chicago White Sox. … On Tuesday, Mandy Bell of MLB.com previewed the Cleveland Indians and the focus of Shane Bieber. Also, Jessica Mendoza talked about Javier Baez and his lack of process and Sarah Langs discussed what a possible Francisco Lindor contract might look like.