Two stagnant programs, four with division title aspirations. The MAC East title race could be one of FBS’ more intriguing if: Kent State makes a few more stops, Miami overcomes a brutal road slate and Ohio is as strong as last season’s tiny sample suggested.
There’s also a chance that Buffalo is just too good for the field. Lance Leipold’s Bulls won the East in 2018 and 2020 and were four points shy of the division title in 2019 as well; SP+ deems them favorites once again. Still, more than half of this division is on a strong trajectory.
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series has thus far covered the Conference USA East and West.
Jump to a team: Bowling Green | Akron | Kent State | Miami (Ohio) | Ohio | Buffalo
Although brief, Scot Loeffler’s second season in charge offered no more promise than his first. After an 0-5 campaign, he’s now 3-14 overall.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 125th
Projected record: 3-9 (2-6)
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Likely wins*: Murray State (73% win probability)
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Relative toss-ups: Akron (51%), South Alabama (41%)
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Likely losses: EMU (34%), at NIU (29%), at Kent State (28%), at Miami (Ohio) (28%), Ohio (22%), Toledo (17%), at Buffalo (11%), at Tennessee (4%), at Minnesota (2%)
* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative toss-ups are the games in between.
What we learned about BGSU in 2020
Loeffler loves tight ends. Tight ends caught 30 passes last year, while wide receivers caught 28. Loeffler has signed as many TEs as WRs in the past two years. It would be fun to say this is a potential source of innovation, but it’s hard to make that case when (a) BGSU ranked 120th in passing success rate and (b) four of last year’s top six targets, including the top two TEs, are gone. Loeffler appears to be starting over offensively for the third time in three years.
The pass defense has promise. The Falcons prevented big plays well, and if you ever fell behind schedule, they blitzed reasonably well. Corner Caleb Biggers is a sure tackler, safety Jordan Anderson is aggressive, and linebackers Kholbe Coleman and Darren Anders are among the better blitzers in the league. If there’s any reason for optimism in 2021, it comes from Brian VanGorder’s defense.
What we didn’t learn about BGSU in 2020
Whether there’s any actual reason for optimism. Among Loeffler’s three wins are 2019 victories over FCS’ Morgan State and a winless Akron, and his 14 losses have all come by at least 18 points (including 31-3 to Akron in 2020). The offense has been hopeless, and a decent pass defense only matters if opponents are forced to pass.
Bowling Green’s history in one chart
1. BGSU hit the ground running in Division I, going 31-6-1 from 1962-65 and only suffering one losing season in its first 15 seasons.
2. The “Cradle of Coaches” moniker belongs to Miami (Ohio), but BGSU has employed a pre-West Virginia Don Nehlen, pre-Utah Urban Meyer, pre-Wake Forest Dave Clawson and pre-Syracuse Dino Babers. Nehlen enjoyed a nice, extended run before leaving for Morgantown.
3. The Falcons stalled out in the late 1990s, but Meyer lit a spark in the 2001-02 seasons to go 17-6, then they went 20-6 in Gregg Brandon’s first two seasons.
4. Josh Harris: a QB before his time. In the Meyer-Brandon spread in 2002-03, he threw for 6,238 yards and 46 touchdowns and rushed for 1,567 yards and 33 more scores.
5. Things have grown dire. First under Mike Jinks, then Loefler, the Falcons have averaged two wins per season since 2017. BGSU has ranked in the SP+ bottom five for three straight years.
If nothing else, the brief 2020 season allowed Akron to get a weight off its back: Tom Arth’s Zips walloped BGSU to end a 21-game losing streak. A 1-5 record: better than 0-6.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 122nd
Projected record: 4-8 (2-6)
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Likely wins*: Bryant (95% win probability)
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Relative toss-ups: Temple (49%), at Bowling Green (49%), Kent State (43%)
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Likely losses: at Miami (Ohio) (32%), Ohio (26%), Buffalo (21%), Ball State (18%), at WMU (15%), at Toledo (13%), at Auburn (2%), at Ohio State (0.4%)
With five opponents projected 110th or worse in SP+, the Zips have an opportunity to win three or four games. Of course, they also have one clear, probable win, but progress is not guaranteed.
What we learned about Akron in 2020
Teon Dollard has some pop. The juco transfer didn’t see much open field, but he took advantage of what he got — he had seven rushes of 20-plus yards and was on pace for 1,300-plus yards at 5.9 per carry over a 12-game season. He might be the first legitimate offensive playmaker Arth has landed to date, and he’ll likely carry a heavy load in 2021.
Defensive coordinator Matt Feeney is an aggressive dude. Akron ranked 38th in blitzes per dropback, and linebackers Bubba Arslanian, Brandon Bischof and Michael Scott all generated decent pressure.
Unfortunately, the run defense was so dreadful that opponents didn’t have to pass if they didn’t want to; when they did, quarterbacks found open men pretty quickly, pressure or not. Whatever its intentions, Akron ranked 124th in success rate allowed and 125th in explosive play rate allowed. Opponents not named Bowling Green averaged 49 points per game and 8.2 yards per play.
What we didn’t learn about Akron in 2020
Will Arth ever find enough difference-makers? Dollard is one. The blitzers are decent. Corner Randy Cochran Jr. holds his own. Defensive tackle Eric Bentley has his disruptive moments. But the passing game was dreadful, the defense got lit up on any play it couldn’t disrupt, and unless juco transfer QB DJ Irons is the real deal, it doesn’t appear there are any immediate saviors on the horizon.
Akron’s history in one chart
1. In retrospect, the fact that former Notre Dame head coach Gerry Faust hovered around .500 for seven years is a hell of an accomplishment.
2. Hall-of-famer Jason Taylor at Akron (1993-96): 41 TFLs, 21 sacks, three INTs, 5.5 points per game for the basketball team … and three (football) wins per season.
3. The 2005 Zips found a late rhythm, winning four of five after a 3-4 start, reaching their first bowl and upsetting NIU in the last minute, 31-30, in an epic MAC Championship.
4. Terry Bowden pushed the proverbial boulder further up the hill than most, going 8-5 in 2015 and scoring an unlikely 2017 MAC East title. Then the boulder rolled back down the hill.
5. Arth was plucked from Chattanooga in 2019; progress has been fleeting thus far (as his 1-17 record would suggest).
Sean Lewis’ Golden Flashes have won seven of their past eight games (three of four in 2020), but a brutal schedule — and brutal defense — might hold them back in 2021.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 111th
Projected record: 4-8 (3-5)
Likely wins*: VMI (92% win probability), BGSU (72%)
Relative toss-ups: NIU (57%), at Akron (57%), Miami (Ohio) (56%)
Likely losses: Buffalo (31%), at Ohio (27%), at WMU (23%), at CMU (22%), at Maryland (5%), at Texas A&M (2%), at Iowa (2%)
SP+ is underselling the Golden Flashes — updated August projections will include a much higher returning production total — but good gracious, this schedule is ridiculous: three top-35 teams in nonconference, then trips to WMU, Ohio and CMU in MAC play. Bowl eligibility will be an accomplishment.
What we learned about Kent State in 2020
The offense is ridiculous. This mach-speed attack ranked first in FBS in points per drive (4.0), second in success rate (57%) and fourth in yards per play (7.4) in 2020. Dustin Crum completed 74% of his passes, his RBs averaged 6.2 yards per carry and three linemen earned all-conference mentions. It appears they’re heading into 2021 with all but one member of the two-deep.
Receiver Isaiah McKoy, the lone departure, was awesome, but you can usually account for a single departure. Lewis added Virginia running back PK Kier and Syracuse slot man Nykeim Johnson as well. After rising to 44th in offensive SP+ in 2020, the top 30 or so is in play.
What we didn’t learn about Kent State in 2020
The defense is ridiculous — in a different way. Ranking first in offensive points per drive is negated a bit when your defense ranks 119th.
The Flashes have ranked 121st, 119th and 118th, in defensive SP+, respectively, under Lewis. The secondary tackled pretty well, but the run defense was an abject disaster. (Most direct evidence: Buffalo’s Jaret Patterson rushing for 409 yards and eight TDs against them.)
Just about every 2020 contributor is back, as are two 2019 starters who were injured. Defensive back transfers Antwaine Richardson (Maryland) and Nico Bolden (New Mexico) are intriguing, too. The unit should improve, but it’s still a long way from good.
Kent State’s history in one chart
1. The Don James era was the program’s high point. The Flashes fielded players like Jack Lambert, Nick Saban and Gary Pinkel and peaked at 9-2 in 1973.
2. A slow, steady decline bottomed out in the 1990s. From 1989-2000, Kent averaged a ghastly 1.4 wins per season
3. Although still not good in the early-2000s, the Flashes had star power: James Harrison, future NFL receiver Julian Edelman at quarterback and future tight end great Antonio Gates — on the basketball team.
4. Darrell Hazell’s squad started 11-1, but lost a heartbreaker to NIU in the MAC Championship to miss out on an Orange Bowl bid. First winning season in 11 years.
5. After a post-Hazell collapse, Lewis is building something exciting. They’ll have to make some stops, though.
The 2019 MAC champs didn’t get much of a chance to defend their crown. The Redhawks’ season began on Nov. 4 and ended 24 days later with a 2-1 record.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 110th
Projected record: 5-7 (3-5)
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Likely wins*: Long Island (99% win probability), BGSU (72%), Akron (68%)
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Relative toss-ups: at Kent State (44%), at EMU (40%)
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Likely losses: CMU (32%), Buffalo (31%), at Ohio (27%), at Ball State (19%), at Army (19%), at Minnesota (5%), at Cincinnati (2%)
A No. 110 projection might be underselling this team — experience levels are high — but the Redhawks face a brutal road slate.
What we learned about Miami in 2020
We might have a QB battle. With quarterback Brett Gabbert injured in the first game, AJ Mayer went 16-for-24 with three TDs to upset Ball State. He struggled against Buffalo, and Gabbert took over against Akron in the finale, but it appears Miami has two QBs capable of piloting an offense loaded with experience.
And I mean loaded. Miami adds Northwestern running back Isaiah Bowser and brings back two 2019 rushers (Jaylon Bester and Tyre Shelton) who sat out in 2020. The receiving corps boasts star Jack Sorenson, and virtually everyone else is solid. The line must replace a couple of strong pieces, but it is utterly massive — seven returnees average at 6-foot-6, 313 pounds and had more than 20 snaps each.
What we didn’t learn about Miami in 2020
Virtually anything else. Gabbert threw 35 passes last year. Bester and Shelton rushed for 1,328 yards in 2019 and zero in 2020. It’s impossible to get a proper read on a team in three games, especially when some of the best players aren’t playing. But the Redhawks will now bring back most of last year’s two-deep, which already included most of 2019’s better players.
Miami returns 10 starters from a defense that was great against the run and sketchy against the pass — a year after being good against the pass and sketchy against the run. A lot of players have succeeded at least a little bit; could everything come together in 2021?
Miami’s history in one chart
1. Bo Schembechler led Miami to success in the mid-1960s, a decade after Woody Hayes did the same. Sid Gillman … Ara Parseghian … there’s a reason why Miami is called the Cradle of Coaches.
2. The peak came under Bill Mallory. From 1973-75, Miami won three MAC titles, finished in the AP top 15 twice and went 32-1-1 with seven wins over Big Ten and SEC teams.
3. The quality-hire streak finally ran aground in the 1980s, but beginning with Randy Walker’s hire in 1990, the Redhawks began to rise again.
4. Ben Roethlisberger in 2003: 4,486 passing yards, 37 touchdowns. Miami lost to Iowa, then won 13 in a row and finished 10th in the AP poll.
5. Under Chuck Martin, Miami went 17-20 with good-on-paper teams from 2016-18 thanks to an endless string of close losses. The Redhawks have been worse on paper since, but they’ve won their past eight one-score games.
Done in a blink: Frank Solich’s Bobcats flashed one of the best run games in the country, lost a heartbreaker to Central Michigan, beat bad Akron and BGSU teams, and that was that.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 89th
Projected record: 7-5 (5-3)
Likely wins*: Duquesne (98% win probability), at BGSU (78%), at Akron (74%), Kent State (73%), Miami (Ohio) (73%)
Relative toss-ups: Syracuse (60%), at EMU (38%), Toledo (49%), CMU (49%), at Buffalo (37%), at Northwestern (35%)
Likely losses: at Louisiana (9%)
Ohio brings back almost its entire offensive two-deep and seven defensive starters, and the schedule offers only one truly likely loss.
What we learned about Ohio in 2020
Kurtis Rourke is a Rourke. After averaging nearly 2,500 passing yards and 900 rushing yards per season as a three-year starting quarterback, Nathan Rourke handed the starting quarterback job primarily to his little brother Kurtis. Kurtis didn’t run quite as frequently or efficiently, but he combined solid mobility with a 68% completion rate. Ohio ran the ball a ton, avoided negative plays on the ground, generated big plays and thrived in the red zone. It was still an Ohio offense, in other words.
Rourke and UNLV transfer Armani Rogers, a devastating runner and iffy passer, could continue to split snaps this fall. With De’Montre Tuggle, big-play slot man Isiah Cox and four starting O-linemen back, this attack will be dangerous again.
What we didn’t learn about Ohio in 2020
Whether a dominant pass defense was driven by improvement or opponent. Ohio improved from 88th to third nationally in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A*) allowed, and sophomore safety Jett Elad emerged as a major playmaker. That sounds great, right? But having two-thirds of your snaps come against Akron and BGSU is a recipe for defensive success.
Losing corner Ilyaas Motley hurts, but most of the secondary returns, as does an ace blitzer in Keye Thompson. What can they do against offenses with a pulse?
* ANY/A: a yards-per-attempt figure that includes sacks, awards 20 yards for touchdowns and subtracts 45 yards for interceptions.
Ohio’s history in one chart
1. Just call Ohio the UCF of the 1960s. In a seven-year span, the Bobcats went 8-3 in 1962, 0-10 in 1965 and 10-1 in 1968. All under head coach Bill Hess, too!
2. Led by QB Cleve Bryant, the 1968 team started 10-0 and took down a prolific Cincinnati in a 60-48 classic. Who said MACtion started in the 2000s?
3. A slow decline picked up speed in the 1980s. Ohio suffered 13 losing seasons in a row and won a total of nine games in Bryant’s five seasons as head coach.
4. The rebound came under Jim Grobe, who perfected a funky, misdirection-heavy offense and went 8-3 in 1997 and 7-4 in 2000 before leaving for Wake Forest.
5. Solich, Nebraska’s former head coach, came aboard in 2005. He went 9-5 in his second year and has suffered only one losing season since. The only box he hasn’t checked: winning a MAC title.
Buffalo’s Lance Leipold has also somehow not managed to win the MAC’s big prize just yet. But if the Bulls keep rising, it’s only a matter of time.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 77th
Projected record: 8-4 (5-3)
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Likely wins*: Wagner (99% win probability), BGSU (89%), at Akron (79%), NIU (79%), at ODU (75%), at Kent State (69%), at Miami (Ohio) (69%)
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Relative toss-ups: Ohio (63%), WMU (58%), at Ball State (41%)
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Likely losses: Coastal Carolina (28%), at Nebraska (14%)
After a 6-1 campaign — the only loss: an upset to Ball State in the MAC Championship — the Bulls face two top-40 foes in September and head to BSU for the regular season finale. Tough? Yes. Massive opportunity? Also, yes.
What we learned about UB in 2020
The Leipold build continues apace. After winning six Division III national titles at Wisconsin-Whitewater, Leipold took the leap to FBS, and after a few years of building a foundation, the Bulls have ignited. In the past three seasons, they’ve jumped from 105th in SP+ to 48th.
Last year’s squad was Leipold’s most balanced yet — 49th on offense, 47th on defense. Backs Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks combined for 1,813 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns (and no, that didn’t all come against Kent State), while the Bulls’ defense generated pressure without blitzing, thanks to ends Malcolm Koonce and Eric Black.
Patterson, Koonce and top receiver Antonio Nunn are gone, but 16 starters return, including quarterback Kyle Vantrease and star linebacker James Patterson, Jaret’s brother. Marks is ready for a star turn, and it appears 2019 star DE Taylor Riggins is back after missing 2020 to injury.
What we didn’t learn about UB in 2020
The passing game’s ceiling. Vantrease was steady in his second year as starter, but when the Bulls had to pass, it only went so well. Buffalo ranked 17th in standard downs success rate but 44th, with minimal big-play presence, on passing downs.
The MAC title game turned on third downs — Vantrease was just 3-for-6 for 23 yards and had a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown. UB should be excellent, but can the Bulls pass when they need to, especially without Nunn?
Buffalo’s history in one chart
1. UB finished .500 or better in its first eight years in the top division, playing the Holy Crosses and Colgates of the world. (Defensive line coach from 1961-65: Buddy Ryan!)
2. Students voted to stop paying the fees that funded the program in 1970. Football was discontinued until the Bulls returned as a Division III school in the late 1970s.
3. After a dreadful start to life back in FBS, Buffalo began to show signs of life under Turner Gill. They rode a close-game winning streak to the 2008 MAC title and their first bowl.
5. Leipold took over in 2015, and a slow build (13-23 in his first three years) has turned into full ignition (24-10 in the past three), so just how high can the Bulls rise?