In a spring training game last weekend, Trevor Bauer pitched the first inning with one eye closed. That he did it against the Padres, the Dodgers’ new archrival in the National League West, suggests it was perhaps a bit of gamesmanship, although Bauer attempted a different explanation after the game. “I like making myself uncomfortable and throwing different stuff my way and trying to find a solution for it,” he said. “That’s how you improve. Find a way to make yourself uncomfortable, then get comfortable with it and do it again.”
Of course, in true Bauer fashion, he also deadpanned that “I figured if they can’t score off of me with one eye open, it’s going to be difficult to score off me with two eyes open.”
One thing we do know is that all eyes will be on Bauer heading into 2021. Coming off his Cy Young season with Cincinnati, Bauer signed a complicated three-year contract with the Dodgers that will pay him at least $38 million in 2021 and up to $47 million in 2022 if he opts out after that season. When you’re the reigning Cy Young winner, joining the reigning World Series champions, and now one of the highest-paid players in the sport with an active — and at times controversial — presence on social media, you better deliver the goods. You can argue that no player in 2021 has more pressure to perform than Bauer.
He’s not the only Cy Young contender to change teams this offseason, however. Four days after Christmas, the Padres officially acquired 2020 Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish from the Cubs and 2018 American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell from the Rays in one of the most impressive single-day hauls in MLB history, sending expectations soaring in San Diego. Pressure on those two to perform is thus acute as well.
Like Bauer, Snell oozes confidence. He didn’t back down from criticizing manager Kevin Cash after Cash controversially removed him in the sixth inning of Game 6 of the World Series with the Rays leading 1-0. At the beginning of spring training, he adroitly played up the rivalry with the Dodgers, joking, “When Boston traded Mookie [Betts], I was super excited, thanking Boston. So now I’ve got to face Mookie even more. I’m taking my thank-you back.”
Darvish’s move to San Diego will be fascinating to watch. After he signed his $126 million free-agent contract with the Cubs in 2018, he struggled to get acclimated that first season and battled injuries, finishing 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in eight starts. He turned things around midway through the 2019 season and has gone 12-7 with a 2.40 ERA since the 2019 All-Star break. Only Jacob deGrom, Jack Flaherty and Gerrit Cole have a better ERA since then, and no starter has a better strikeout-to-walk ratio than Darvish’s uber-impressive 211-to-21 (in 157.2 innings).
A couple of days after the trade to the Padres, Darvish told reporters he was “shocked” by the trade, although he quickly clarified that he was shocked in a good way. “I actually wanted to throw against the Padres last season, just to see how good I was,” he said through his interpreter. “So I’m very happy to join a team that’s as strong as the Padres.”
It’s hard to imagine Bauer or Snell saying something along those lines. The Padres smartly acquired Victor Caratini, Darvish’s personal catcher, in the trade, which should help ease his transition.
Bauer also has perhaps the added pressure of pitching for his hometown team. He grew up going to games at Dodger Stadium and pitched at UCLA. When he was introduced after signing in February, he said on his Zoom call that going with the Dodgers wasn’t so much about returning to Los Angeles as it was going to a team that can win it all. “I want to win a World Series,” he said. “I’ve come in second both in college and the big leagues. I’m tired of it.”
I decided to examine how aces in new places have done in their first seasons with a new club. Going back over the past 15 seasons, I found 15 pitchers whom I subjectively labeled an “ace” who changed teams. I didn’t include pitchers traded during a season and I didn’t include Gerrit Cole or Hyun-Jin Ryu from last offseason, due to the shortened 2020 season.
Here is the average of how those 15 pitchers fared:
Old team: 16-9, 2.98 ERA, 221 IP, 194 H, 47 BB, 217 SO, 5.4 WAR
New team: 15-8, 3.13 ERA, 204 IP, 180 H, 46 BB, 201 SO, 4.9 WAR
Take out Darvish’s 2018 and the average WAR goes up to 5.3 — nearly matching the collective value of the previous season. I was a little surprised the totals were so similar. Take any group of players who had great seasons and you would expect at least some slight regression, or with a group of pitchers, more injuries.
Of course, the Padres didn’t acquire Darvish and Snell for just one season, as both are signed through 2023. Based on the structure of the contract, the Dodgers probably have Bauer for two seasons (if he opts in for 2023, it’s likely because he got injured). While our group of aces fared well in their first seasons, they did suffer some injuries later on.
We also have to keep in mind the weird nature of the 2020 season. Bauer had a 1.73 ERA, but over just 11 starts (only one of which came against a good offensive club). It’s not realistic to expect a sub-2.00 ERA from him. Then again, he moves to a pitcher’s park with a great defense behind him. Heck, maybe the Dodgers will even let him occasionally pitch on three days of rest as Bauer would like to do.
Darvish has just one season in his career where he made 30 starts with a sub-3.00 ERA and that was eight years ago. As good as he’s been since the 2019 All-Star break, I’m not looking for an ERA close to the 2.01 mark he posted in 2020. The Padres have to hope he settles in right away — they have two series against the Dodgers in April.
Snell is probably the biggest question mark of the three, mostly due to overall health concerns and how the Rays handled him with kid gloves the past two seasons (he averaged just 4.6 innings per start). Snell has the best pure stuff of any left-handed starter in the game, but he has to prove he can sustain it over 180 innings as he did in 2018.
Still, if history is a lesson, the pressure of the big contract or big trade doesn’t appear to be a huge factor. I think all three will perform at a high level if they stay healthy — and maybe, like CC Sabathia in 2009 or Patrick Corbin in 2019, win a World Series in their first season with their new team.
Here are the snapshots of the 15 pitchers in the study:
2019 — Patrick Corbin (signed with Nationals)
Other than an uptick in walk rate, Corbin had an identical season to 2018, when he finished fifth in the Cy Young. His WAR was actually 1.6 higher since he faced a tougher slate of opponents in 2019, and he capped the season with three scoreless innings of relief in Game 7 of the World Series.
2018 — Yu Darvish (signed with Cubs)
Darvish was a borderline ace here, posting a 3.86 ERA for the Rangers and Dodgers in 2017, but he fanned 209 in 186.2 innings and had a 3.42 career ERA plus dominant stuff. As mentioned, his first season with the Cubs was a disaster.
2017 — Chris Sale (traded to Red Sox)
Sale had a dominant season, fanning 308 batters, leading the AL in innings pitched and finishing second in the Cy Young voting.
2016 — David Price (signed with Red Sox)
Price won 17 games and was a workhorse with 230 innings, but his ERA rose from a league-leading 2.45 to 3.99 and his WAR fell from 6.3 to 2.9.
2016 — Zack Greinke (signed with Diamondbacks)
After going 19-3 with 1.66 ERA for the Dodgers in 2015 — and finishing runner-up in the Cy Young voting to Jake Arrieta — Greinke got off to a terrible start with seven runs allowed on Opening Day and later in the season had a nine-run game. He also missed July with an oblique strain and finished with a 4.37 ERA, his only ERA above 4.00 between 2011 and 2019.
2016 — Johnny Cueto (signed with Giants)
The rest of his big contract with the Giants hasn’t gone so well due to injuries, but Cueto had a great first season there, going 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA.
2015 — Max Scherzer (signed with Nationals)
One of the best free-agent signings of all time, Scherzer went 14-12 with 2.79 ERA, 276 strikeouts and 6.9 WAR, the highest in his career up to that point (he would beat that in 2017 and 2018).
2015 — Jon Lester (signed with Cubs)
Lester had a 2.46 ERA with the Red Sox and A’s in 2014 (although he allowed 16 unearned runs, so that’s a little misleading). He went 11-12 with a 3.34 ERA in 2015 with essentially identical peripherals and was even better in 2016, when he finished second in the Cy Young voting.
2013 — Zack Greinke (signed with Dodgers)
In the pre-Andrew Friedman era, the Dodgers signed Greinke and won their first NL West title since 2009. They haven’t finished out of first place since. Greinke went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA.
2013 — R.A. Dickey (traded to Blue Jays)
Dickey had posted a 2.95 ERA in three seasons with the Mets and won the Cy Young Award in 2012, so he was a legitimate ace when the Mets traded him for a package that included Noah Syndergaard. The knuckleball didn’t dance quite as much in Toronto and he had a 4.21 ERA in 2013 as his WAR fell from 5.7 to 1.9.
2011 — Cliff Lee (signed with Phillies)
In his second stint with the Phillies, Lee is tied with the next guy on this list for the best season via WAR, going 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA over 232.2 innings, worth 8.5 WAR. He finished third in the Cy Young voting behind Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay (it was a good season for starting pitchers).
2010 — Roy Halladay (traded to Phillies)
Halladay also had a 8.5-WAR season after coming over from the Blue Jays, going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and, unlike Lee, winning the Cy Young Award. He also pitched 250 innings, which now sounds like a Herculean total, although it happened not that long ago.
2010 — Cliff Lee (traded to the Mariners)
A decade later, this remains one of the most mind-boggling trades of the century. The Phillies had acquired Lee in 2009 from Cleveland and reached the World Series, then inexplicably traded him to Seattle. The Mariners were awful, so they ended up trading Lee to the Rangers. He posted a 3.18 ERA and 5.1 WAR in 212 innings (over just 28 starts). The Phillies lost the 2010 National League Championship Series to the Giants without Lee and then lost the 2011 division series to an inferior Cardinals team with a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt. And then just like that, the franchise was done. The Phillies haven’t finished over .500 since.
2009 — CC Sabathia (signed with Yankees)
One of the more famous free-agent signings of the past 15 years since he helped the Yankees win the World Series his first season there, Sabathia went 19-8 with a 3.37 ERA, 6.2 WAR and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting.
2008 — Johan Santana (traded to Mets)
Mets fans act like the Santana contract was a disaster, but he actually had three good seasons before he got injured. He was particularly great his first season there when he had an NL-leading 2.53 ERA and 7.1 WAR, finishing third in the Cy Young voting.