At some point, maybe in January, probably not until February, the owners and players will agree on how to divvy up the billions of dollars of baseball revenue. For now, we wait for the return of what will be the abbreviated hot stove season, but we can still talk baseball.
While there was a flurry of signings in the days leading up to the lockout, contending teams still have major holes to fill and several top free agents are out there. From Kiley McDaniel’s offseason list, the best remaining from the top 20 are Carlos Correa (No. 1), Freddie Freeman (3), Trevor Story (4), Kris Bryant (8), Clayton Kershaw (12), Nick Castellanos (13), Carlos Rodon (14), Michael Conforto (15) and Seiya Suzuki (17).
Trade targets are little more unknown, but the two teams most likely to deal away significant players are the Reds (pitchers Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle could be available) and the A’s (Matt Olson and Matt Chapman plus starting pitching). The Orioles might shop John Means.
Let’s look at the 10 most interesting holes to fill on contending teams:
Biggest needs: Shortstop, center field
Potential targets: Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Andrelton Simmons, Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Kiermaier, Brett Gardner, Seiya Suzuki
It was eerily quiet in the Bronx prelockout, as the Yankees’ biggest move was signing Jose Peraza, who is not exactly the straw that stirs the drink, to a minor league contract. Are the Yankees really waiting to see what the new luxury tax threshold might be? Perhaps, or maybe they are just waiting to pounce, with Correa and Story still out there. Or maybe the player they really want is Freddie Freeman to play first base and give them a much-needed left-handed hitter. They could then sign a stopgap at shortstop like Simmons, use the Correa money to re-sign Aaron Judge and hope top prospect Anthony Volpe is ready for 2023. Center field doesn’t get the attention as the hole at shortstop, but it’s also a problem. Aaron Hicks is the default center fielder for now — somehow, he’s still under contract for four more seasons — but he has played just 145 games the past three seasons and at 32 is now at the age when most center fielders move to a corner. Frankly, Joey Gallo is probably a better option, while the best of the remaining free-agent options is a return engagement with the 38-year-old Gardner. Making a trade has to be a possibility, but Reynolds, coming off an All-Star season with the Pirates in which he finished 11th in the MVP voting, would be super expensive. Kiermaier can be had, but the Rays might not want to trade him to a division rival.
I keep going back to Gallo, who did play center field for the Rangers in 2019 before winning Gold Gloves as a right fielder the past two seasons. If he can play center, that opens the door for the Yankees to sign a corner outfielder. They are reportedly interested in Suzuki, who hit .317/.433/.636 with 38 home runs in Japan for Hiroshima in 2021.
What they should do: Spend! As much as Correa is the perfect fit, Volpe might be the real deal. So sign Freeman and Suzuki to boost an offense that was a miserable 10th in the AL in runs. Then sign Simmons to stabilize the defense at shortstop.
Biggest need: First base
Potential targets: Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Anthony Rizzo
We just put Freeman on the Yankees. Should Braves fans be a little nervous that a deal with Freeman wasn’t signed, sealed and delivered before the lockout? Yes, absolutely. At this point, while many in the baseball industry do expect Freeman to still return to Atlanta, it’s not inevitable. Not with just the Yankees interested, but perhaps also the Dodgers, Blue Jays and others. Keep in mind the only $100 million contracts Liberty Media has ever handed out were extensions to a much younger Freeman and that sweetheart deal with Ronald Acuna Jr. This franchise has shown zero inclination to give out nine-figure deals to older free agents. It also never had to re-sign a face of the franchise.
So, don’t rule out Freeman leaving and the Braves making a blockbuster deal to acquire Olson from the A’s. It’s really the perfect alternative as Olson has essentially become the AL version of Freeman after cutting down on his strikeouts in 2021. Olson actually outhit Freeman in 2021 (153 OPS+ to 133). The Braves’ farm system is middle of the pack, but they do have major league players who might interest the A’s in guys like Cristian Pache and Kyle Wright (it will take more than that to get Olson). For what it’s worth, Olson is from the Atlanta suburb of Lilburn, so the fans would warm up quickly to him — as long as he hits.
What they should do: Sign Freeman. Perhaps the idea of a player spending his entire career with one team is a relic from the era of wool uniforms, but it’s still a nice idea.
Biggest need: Starting pitching depth
Potential targets: Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Rodon, Luis Castillo, Sean Manaea
Some people collect apothecary jars or vacation magnets or Happy Meal toys; the Dodgers like to collect starting pitching depth. And yet by the NLCS they were down to Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, a dead-armed Max Scherzer and bullpen games. Moral of the story: You can never have enough starting pitching. Rinse. Repeat.
Right now the Dodgers have Buehler, Urias, Andrew Heaney, Tony Gonsolin, David Price, and a rehabbing Dustin May … and Trevor Bauer. As Alden Gonzalez recently outlined, the belief around the Dodgers at the end of the season was that Bauer would not return for 2022. Still, the potential $47 million they owe him ($32 million in salary plus another $15 million if Bauer utilizes his opt-out clause for 2023) complicates that decision, at least in financial ways, unless some sort of “go away” deal can be worked out.
Kershaw and Rodon both ended 2021 with health concerns, while prospects Andre Jackson and Ryan Pepiot would be the deeper options. Making another addition — including re-signing Kershaw — might come down to how much faith the Dodgers have in Gonsolin and Price, two guys they were afraid to start in the postseason (Price wasn’t even on the NLCS roster).
What they should do: Sign Kershaw. Of course, even in the wool uniform days, all-time greats moved on: Ty Cobb to the A’s, Babe Ruth to the Braves, Yogi Berra with the Mets. Still, it’s hard to picture Kershaw in anything but Dodger Blue.
Biggest need: Bat to replace Marcus Semien
Potential targets: Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Seiya Suzuki, Matt Chapman, Kyle Seager, Josh Harrison, Freddie Freeman
The Blue Jays have a lot of moving parts — they would like to trade one of the four catchers on their 40-man roster (not prospect Gabriel Moreno), they’ve been rumored to be shopping Randal Grichuk, and they likely will add another starter to fill out the rotation. The biggest priority, however, should be replacing Semien. They have flexibility here:
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They could sign one of the shortstops and move Bo Bichette, who ranked in just the sixth percentile among shortstops in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, to second base.
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They could go after a third baseman — Chapman in a trade, Seager as a free agent — and let Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio handle second base. Seager would provide a lefty bat in Toronto’s righty-heavy lineup.
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They could sign Harrison to play second base.
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Or maybe they go in a completely different direction. The Blue Jays have reportedly been interested in Freeman and Suzuki, which does suggest they’re looking for another big bat. Freeman feels like an awkward fit with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base, but maybe the Jays would move the slimmed down Guerrero back to third (it seems way too early in his career to make him a permanent DH).
What they should do: Sign Correa. Toronto’s current payroll via Cot’s Contracts is $159 million. They should be operating closer to the Yankees and Red Sox. Dumping Grichuk’s $10.3 million would help in that area. Realistically, with George Springer, Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman on $100 million-plus deals and Guerrero and Bichette coming up in the future, Correa might be too pricey for the Blue Jays’ comfort level. In that case, Seager can plug in at third base for a year and they can use their farm system depth to acquire one of the Cincinnati or Oakland starters.
Biggest need: Impact player
Potential targets: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant
Why, yes, dear readers, we are considering the Tigers contenders. They went 77-85 last season, added Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, play in a weak division and have two potential impact rookies in outfielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson to help an offense that ranked 11th in the AL in runs. What do they still need? On one hand, they need their young starters — Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning — to improve. In theory, that should happen, although it’s no guarantee.
Still, it seems logical to believe that if the Tigers can contend — and by contend, we’re assuming the current 10-team playoff system continues as opposed to some bloated 14-team format that makes two-thirds of the teams in the majors legitimate “contenders” — it will be because the young pitchers will be better. If they struggle, adding Ted Williams won’t be enough.
Plus, this gets us to a difficult question the Detroit front office must finally confront: Miguel Cabrera. I get it: the Tigers owe Cabrera $64 million the next two seasons (and then an $8 million buyout). Cabrera’s last good season, however, was 2016 … six seasons ago. Tigers DHs hit .192/.255/.282 last year. Cabrera was nowhere near that bad overall, but he did hit much worse as a DH than when he played first base and the non-Cabrera DHs hit .147. Castellanos or Schwarber can soak up DH at-bats, play some outfield when Cabrera plays and give the Tigers the cleanup hitter they need. Bryant is the better defender if they want to go that route.
What they should do: Sign Schwarber. Why do so many AL teams punt on DH? Schwarber’s lefty power bat will help balance out righties Torkelson and Baez to go with switch-hitters Jeimer Candelario and Robbie Grossman (and Greene bats lefty as well).
Biggest needs: Big bat, starting pitcher
Potential targets: Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Freddie Freeman, Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber, Bryan Reynolds, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Anderson
Like the Tigers, the Mariners need another hitter — in fact, they matched Detroit with 697 runs in 2021. The Mariners made a splash with Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and upgraded at second base with Adam Frazier (Mariners second basemen were 27th in the majors in OPS), but Frazier is not the BIG bat they need, plus they’ve parted with Kyle Seager and his 35 home runs. Jerry Dipoto keeps hinting at more to come for the Mariners, and they’re sitting on a $100 million payroll that has room to grow (they ran $170 million payrolls from 2016 to 2018 before rebuilding).
With the team committed to J.P. Crawford at shortstop, Carlos Correa doesn’t seem to work, so Bryant and Story make the most sense to play third base. They could also use Schwarber as a pure DH, although Dipoto prefers to run players through that position. The fascinating longshot here is Freeman. The Mariners have been surprise winners for free agents in the past — think Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz — so don’t dismiss the idea.
What they should do: Us Mariners fans can dream of Freeman (Ty France would make a nice DH), but we’ll settle for Bryant. And then use some of the talent from one of baseball’s best farm system to acquire Castillo (no, not Julio Rodriguez, don’t be silly). After all, 2001 was a long, long time ago.
Biggest needs: Center field, left field, shortstop, third base
Potential targets: Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Kris Bryant, Kyle Seager, Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Villar, Kevin Pillar, Brett Gardner, Odubel Herrera, Kyle Schwarber, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson
With Andrew McCutchen and Herrera in free agency and Didi Gregorius and Alec Bohm coming off rough seasons — the Phillies ranked 28th in the majors in WAR at shortstop and 27th at third base — Dave Dombrowski needed to do his offseason shopping at Costco: Buy in bulk. Instead the Phillies spent the prelockout time at Dollar General, making a few minor transactions while gaping holes in the lineup remain unfilled. The problem is the payroll is already at $177 million. There is room to go higher as they’ve been over $200 million the past two seasons, but as much as they need a big-ticket player like Correa or Bryant or even Schwarber (bad defense … a Phillies tradition!), Dombrowski might need to spread the money around. Aside from the Yankees, you can make the argument that no front office will be under more pressure to do something than the Phillies. After all, Dombrowski was brought in to win now — that’s what he does. The Phillies didn’t win in 2021.
What they should do: I can’t imagine another season with Gregorius and Bohm playing defense side by side. They do have shortstop prospect Bryson Stott, but he needs time in Triple-A. Bryant is the perfect fit here as you could at least give Bohm another shot at third and play Bryant in the outfield. If Bohm struggles, move Bryant to third. So, umm, Bryant and … can Schwarber play center field?
Biggest need: Starting pitching depth
Potential targets: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt
The Rays signed Corey Kluber to add a veteran presence to a rotation that will otherwise rely on sophomore ace Shane McClanahan and three youngsters who have never pitched 100 innings in a major league season: Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen and Luis Patino. Those are some fun arms to dream on, especially after Rasmussen posted a 1.93 ERA in 10 starts with the Rays (although he averaged barely four innings per start). With Tyler Glasnow likely to miss most of the season and Kluber an injury risk, another veteran innings eater could help. Scratch that. That’s what the Rays did last year with Rich Hill and Michael Wacha to mixed results. They should think bigger for 2022 and they have the deep farm system to make a trade.
What they should do: I listed all six starters on the Reds and A’s. Castillo is the guy to top the list. He’s under team control for two more seasons and will make an estimated $8 million in arbitration — heck, if they can trade Kiermaier and his $12.1 million salary, they can end up with a lower payroll while improving the team (Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips and Josh Lowe are all capable of playing a plus center field).
Biggest need: Bullpen? Defense? Outfield?
Potential targets: Andrew Chafin, Collin McHugh, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Adam Ottavino, Tony Watson, Jake Diekman, Carlos Correa, Seiya Suzuki
The Jackie Bradley Jr.-Hunter Renfroe swap was surprising, although from Boston’s perspective it was as much about liking prospect Alex Binelas as hoping for Bradley to bounce back from hitting .163 with the Brewers. After losing Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers, the Sox signed James Paxton (coming off Tommy John surgery), Michael Wacha and the ageless Rich Hill to fill out a rotation that will benefit from a full season of Chris Sale. As we saw in the postseason, however, Alex Cora didn’t have much trust in his bullpen, so we listed a bunch of relievers above.
I wonder if chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has something even bigger in mind, however. The Red Sox allowed the highest batting average on balls in play in the majors, including ranking last in batting average allowed on grounders. Does that mean Correa is in play? They could slide Xander Bogaerts over to third and Rafael Devers over to first to improve the defense (and hedge against Bogaerts exercising his opt-out clause after 2022). Or maybe trading Renfroe was a way to clear a path for Suzuki to play right field.
What they should do: At the minimum, they need a good lefty reliever and Chafin was the best in 2021 this side of Josh Hader. But, man, Correa really is a good fit. That might ensure the departure of Bogaerts, but that could happen anyway and Correa is the better long-term fit at short.
Biggest need: Shortstop
Potential targets: Carlos Correa, Trevor Story
Are the Angels contenders? Well, they are if they can get close to 300 games out of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. And 30 starts from Noah Syndergaard. And a breakout from Reid Detmers. And improved results from Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh. And more superhero stuff from Shohei Ohtani. OK, you get the idea. Anyway, sure, the Angels could use more pitching help — Ohtani’s 4.1 WAR was the best by an Angels pitcher since Garrett Richards in 2014, and Ohtani threw just 130 innings — but they also have a huge hole at shortstop.
Angels shortstops finished last in the majors in WAR, hitting .254/.295/.371 and ranking last with minus-19 Defensive Runs Saved (Jose Iglesias rated very poorly at minus-20 DRS). They acquired Tyler Wade from the Yankees, but he’s a nice utility player, not an everyday starter. Logically, it’s hard to envision the Angels, in the early stages of Trout’s $426.5 million contract and Rendon making $36 million in 2022 and then $38 million through 2026, handing out another megadeal. Not to mention that Ohtani will be eligible for free agency after 2023. Yet, the Angels are about $24 million under the current luxury tax (which should at least go up a little bit) and Justin Upton‘s $28 million comes off the books after 2022. There is some wiggle room.
What they should do: Sign Story. Look, you never know with Arte Moreno, but it’s hard to imagine the Angels paying Trout, Rendon and Correa. Story is the more realistic fit, assuming his shoulder checks out. Even then, the Angels might instead put more money into the starting rotation. How about enticing Clayton Kershaw to head south on I-5 for about 30 miles?
(Dodgers fans … Dodgers fans, are you still there?)