The Edmonton Oilers have changed coaches. Again.
Dave Tippett is out. Jay Woodcroft is in. But is it all too little, too late to salvage a season gone drastically off the rails?
Since Dec. 3, Edmonton is 7-13-3, has been outscored 85-60, and the team once expected to compete for a Pacific Division title is several points back of even a wild-card spot.
Can anything be done to fix what has gone wrong? What realistic changes can general manager Ken Holland still expect to make as the March 21 trade deadline looms? And how much will fall on the group already assembled to start saving itself?
We answer those questions and offer some predictions about what could be next for the Oilers.
What will the Oilers do ahead of the trade deadline?
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter/writer: What should Edmonton do? Trade for a goalie. But from where? And with whom? A top-end rental won’t come cheap. So here’s where general manager Ken Holland has to be strategic. We see teams get a “new coach bump” all the time (Derek King in Chicago, for example). The Oilers play 18 games before the trade deadline, giving Holland at least a little time to assess what this current team looks like with a fresh voice directing this. What can Woodcroft do out of the gate that guides management’s trade philosophy? Edmonton clearly can score goals, although it hasn’t done enough of that lately. So can Woodcroft pick up this group and perhaps get more out of goalie Mikko Koskinen, who was the subject of public criticism from Tippett? Is there a tangible goalie tandem already in place that just needs a reset? These are things the Oilers will learn in short order. And Holland’s deadline decisions should be made accordingly.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter/writer: The first thing they should do is take Ken Holland’s advice and stash their 2022 first-round draft pick in a safe. Maybe they miss the playoffs and end up with an advantageous lottery pick. Maybe they simply wait until the offseason to make a move that improves this roster. I don’t think that move presents itself now. If it does, then I agree with Kristen: Trade for a goalie. Both Koskinen and Mike Smith have played at a below-replacement level. That play has cost this team wins. The Oilers have checked in on a number of goalies, from Martin Jones (who could help) to Joonas Korpisalo (who probably can’t). Failing that, maybe give Woodcroft’s old AHL goalie Stuart Skinner a run between the pipes?
What needs to happen for the Oilers to make the playoffs? Will they do it?
Shilton: Connor McDavid described the Oilers this week as “out of sync all over.” A coaching change can only go so far in fixing that. There’s also work to be done by the players in the room addressing the larger concerns weighing the team down. To make the playoffs, there has to be a buy-in and belief that it’s still possible for this group, as it stands now. Establishing that trust is paramount. From there, Edmonton has to stop the bleeding. Since Dec. 3, the Oilers have averaged nearly four goals against per game, and their penalty kill is No. 32 in the NHL. Start patching the holes where you can. Woodcroft will have to think outside the box and try new combinations, particularly on defense, where finding the optimal partner for Darnell Nurse is key. There is so much talent in Edmonton beyond just McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but clearly they haven’t been making the most of it. If the Oilers can figure out how to do that again — and fast — I wouldn’t bet against them surging into a wild-card spot in the Western Conference.
Wyshynski: Through all of this chaos, the Oilers still have a 39.7% chance of making the playoffs. You’d rather be them than the Winnipeg Jets, Vancouver Canucks and San Jose Sharks at the moment. So that’s more than a little hope. One of the things I’m intrigued by is what I’d call, for lack of a better term, the “AHL effect.” Woodcroft has coached a number of players on the roster this season with the Bakersfield Condors: Winger Tyler Benson, defenseman Evan Bouchard, defenseman Philip Broberg, center Ryan McLeod, defenseman Markus Niemelainen and Skinner. Perhaps there will be more reinforcements. It’s an old NHL trope that an AHL coach can reach the rank and file better than the coach he replaced, and in the process increase their playing time. I remember seeing it with Bruce Boudreau in Washington and Bruce Cassidy in Boston. Maybe they’ll see it again in Edmonton.
In the long term, what does this team need to do around McDavid and Draisaitl to be successful?
Shilton: Not to be a broken record, but Edmonton needs a long-term solution in net. The Oilers took a flier on third-round choice Ilya Konovalov in 2019 and selected Oliver Rodrigue with a second-round pick in 2018. Neither will be NHL starters anytime soon. Holland’s first priority should be finding Edmonton’s goalie for the next 3-4 seasons. The only problem is Edmonton is already near the cap ceiling and there’s little reprieve coming there by way of a major cap increase. Moving/eliminating Zack Kassian‘s $3.2 million a year contract (through 2023-24!) would help in that respect. Really, Edmonton has made its first big step toward a better future in parting ways with Tippett. He’s not totally to blame for the Oilers’ issues, but this was their best shot right now at finding the best version of this team. Holland has to be able to figure that out before he can piece together what the team should look like going forward.
Wyshynski: Make a change at the top. Look, I understand that this isn’t ideal for stability. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has now played for eight coaches and five general managers since entering the league in 2011-12. That’s a lot! Bringing in another general manager means bringing in another coach, too, and that’s rough. But Holland has unfortunately made a convincing case for his removal. He had a specious offseason, from sitting out the goalie carousel to that Duncan Keith trade, and that has come home to roost in the regular season. I wish things had worked out differently. I’m a big fan of second chapters. It would have been great to see Holland pull off a Jim Rutherford, building another champion. But while coaching was the issue this season, so was construction.