The Week 12 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend following Thanksgiving. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information research provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full post-holiday Week 12 slate, including Jalen Hurts vs. Aaron Rodgers, the Rams trying to get back on track against the Chiefs and Tom Brady taking on the Browns’ defense. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and the Colts on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: TB -3 (42.5)
What to watch for: Bucs QB Tom Brady is 7-1 against the Browns in his career, with his only defeat coming in 2010. Brady has also thrown 13 touchdown passes with just four interceptions against Cleveland, which enters this game with the second-worst scoring defense (26.9 points allowed per game) in the league this season. — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: This is the week the Bucs’ No. 32-ranked ground game will hit a season-high of 175 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. The Browns have struggled stopping the run all year, surrendering 299 fantasy points to opposing running backs through 10 weeks — second-most in the NFL. Their 16 rushing touchdowns surrendered are also third-worst in the NFL, and over the past four games, they’ve surrendered an average of 140.5 rushing yards per game. They are most vulnerable up the middle, which caters towards offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich’s playcalling quite well. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Brady is 15-5 (.750) in his career off the bye week, tied with Troy Aikman (9-3) for the fourth-best win percentage off a bye since it was instituted in 1990 (among 28 QBs with 10-plus starts). He trails only Donovan McNabb (11-1, .917), John Elway (8-2, .800) and Peyton Manning (13-4, .765).
What to know for fantasy: Donovan Peoples-Jones is coming off of a season best 17.1 fantasy points against the Bills and has now surpassed 11 fantasy points in five straight contests. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: The past four times the Bucs have gotten extended rest, their game has gone under the total by an average of 8.0 points per game. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Browns 23
Walder’s pick: Browns 24, Buccaneers 22
FPI prediction: TB, 51.0% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns wasting another prime year of Garrett, other stars as losses mount
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CIN -3 (43.5)
What to watch for: Tennessee insists this week against the Bengals isn’t a revenge game even though Cincinnati snatched a golden opportunity away from the top-seeded Titans in last year’s AFC divisional playoff game. The Titans will have a fully healthy Derrick Henry this time around, so Cincinnati’s focus will be on stopping the NFL’s leading rusher, which should open up opportunities for quarterback Ryan Tannehill to get some redemption after last year’s three-interception postseason performance. Tannehill is coming off of his best passing day of the season, having posted 333 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over the Packers. — Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: Ryan Tannehill will throw for 275 yards in a loss. The Bengals, who are slight road favorites, are keen on taking Henry away. That leaves it up to Tannehill if the Titans want to exact payback for last year’s AFC divisional playoff loss in Nashville. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in seven straight games, the third-longest streak in franchise history. The other two came in 1993 (11 games) and 1967 (9), when the franchise was called the Houston Oilers.
Joe Fortenbaugh likes the Titans chances against the Bengals and suggests to play them on the money line.
What to know for fantasy: Treylon Burks piled up 111 yards last Thursday night at Lambeau Field, more than double his previous career high. Expectations need to be measured, but he has seen 14 targets since returning to action in Week 10. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Bengals opened the season 0-2 against the spread with five straight unders and have been 7-1 ATS and 4-0-1 to overs since. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 20, Titans 17
Walder’s pick: Bengals 24, Titans 23
FPI prediction: CIN, 60.5% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Without Chase and Mixon, Bengals show why they’re one of NFL’s hottest offenses … Titans’ Henry first in NFL to 1,000 yards, throws for TD to boot … Mixon suffers concussion vs. Steelers … Titans OC arrested on DUI charge after returning from Packers win
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NYJ -6 (38.5)
What to watch for: The QB showdown between struggling 2021 first-round quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Justin Fields will not happen; Wilson got benched because of performance and Fields is day-to-day with a left shoulder injury. Who would be excited about Mike White (or Joe Flacco) versus Trevor Siemian, an ex-Jet? Quarterback decision aside, this is a huge game for the Jets (6-4), who still have a chance to make the playoffs. Their offense should be able to get going against the 29th-ranked rush defense. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: Putting an injured Fields in harm’s way of the vicious Jets defense would be malpractice. New York came away from Week 11 with six sacks and eight quarterback hits, and that pass rush is going to feast on Siemian and Chicago’s leaky pass protection. Siemian will get sacked four times and throw two interceptions while the Jets hold the Bears to less than 20 points for the first time in six games. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Jets have registered at least five sacks in three straight games, their longest streak since the 1970 merger. Bears QBs have been sacked 40 times this season, tied with the Colts for the most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: The growth of Fields is great to see, but be careful in assuming it benefits the skill players around him. Darnell Mooney has score 13-plus fantasy points just once during this run of high-end production from Fields and has more than six targets just twice this season. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Jets have seen four of five home games go under the total. In fact, in all five of those games, the losing team failed to eclipse 17 points. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jets 20, Bears 14
Walder’s pick: Jets 23, Bears 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 70.7% (by an average of 6.3 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -4 (43.5)
What to watch for: Lamar Jackson has run for 100-plus yards 12 times in his career, including twice this season. His career high is 152 yards against Cincinnati in 2019. Why is that important? Because the Jaguars allowed Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to rush for 107 yards earlier this season, the first time a Giants QB has rushed for 100 yards since 1946 (per Elias Sports Bureau). It could be another big day for Jackson on the ground, especially since the Jaguars get little pressure off the edge, which should give Jackson plenty of opportunities to get outside and take off. — Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: The Ravens won’t take a double-digit lead in a game for the first time this season. Baltimore is just the sixth team in NFL history to go ahead by 10 or more points in each of its first 10 games of a season. But the Jaguars are a more competitive team than their 3-7 record indicates, as they have a plus-11 point differential. Jacksonville’s average margin of defeat is only 6.8 points. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: The Ravens are averaging 6.1 yards per rush on the road, the highest in NFL. They’ve had four straight road games with 180-plus rush yards, one shy of tying the longest streak in the Super Bowl era (1985-86 Falcons and 1976-77 Steelers).
What to know for fantasy: On a per game basis, Jackson was QB1 through three weeks but is QB15 since. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Ravens have seen six of their past seven games go under the total, a trend that was never more clear than in last week’s 13-3 win over the Panthers, which had a 41.5-point over/under. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 27, Jaguars 20
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 20, Ravens 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 57.5% (by an average of 2.3 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: MIA -14 (47)
What to watch for: The Texans own the worst run defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are fresh off their best rushing performance of the season, running for 195 yards against the Browns in Week 10. Houston also ranks 26th in yards allowed per pass, which feels like a massive mismatch against a Miami offense that leads the league in that category. Barring a total lapse following their Week 11 bye, there’s little on paper to suggest the double-digit-point favorite Dolphins won’t win this game. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: The Texans’ new starting quarterback, Kyle Allen, will produce a passer rating over 100. The switch should give the Texans’ offense a boost. Allen’s career passer rating is 84.9, but the Dolphins allow quarterbacks to produce a passer rating of 99.5, third-highest in the NFL. The Dolphins only pressure quarterbacks on 24.4% of their drop backs, fifth fewest in the NFL. That’s why the majority of passers have thrived against the Dolphins’ defense. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Tua Tagovailoa has three straight games with three or more touchdown passes, tied with Lamar Jackson for the longest streak in the NFL this season. The only Dolphins QB to throw more than three touchdown passes in four consecutive games is Dan Marino.
Tyler Fulghum explains why he expects the Dolphins to overmatch the Texans in Week 12.
Betting nugget: The Dolphins haven’t been favored by 11 or more points since 2003 Week 1 (-14), also against the Texans (Miami lost 21-20). Detroit is the only team with a longer active drought of not being favored by 11-plus points (1996). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 31, Texans 16
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 30, Texans 10
FPI prediction: MIA, 85.7% (by an average of 12.7 points)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: WSH -4 (40.5)
What to watch for: This will be a terrific matchup of Atlanta’s high-powered rush offense vs. Washington’s excellent run defense. The Falcons rank third in rushing yards per game and are sixth in yards per carry. Meanwhile, Washington ranks sixth in rushing yards per game allowed and ninth in yards per carry. Washington’s defensive front has been terrific, led by tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. In the past five games, only one team — Indianapolis — has rushed for more than 94 yards against the Commanders. — John Keim
Bold prediction: The Falcons will build on their low-blitz, high-pressure game against the Bears by adding another four sacks against Washington. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke might be mobile, but he’s not elite when it comes to running, Atlanta has some confidence in a pass rush that had not been doing well with pressure or sacks this season. Now, that confidence might be there and the Falcons will take advantage and make life difficult for Washington’s quarterbacks. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: The Falcons would be .500 with a win; they haven’t been .500 or better this late into a season since 2017, which was the last time they made playoffs and had a winning record.
What to know for fantasy: The tight end position is as ugly as it has been in recent memory, thus making the widely available Logan Thomas (five catches for 65 yards last week at Houston) a viable option in this matchup with a poor pass defense. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: Four of five Washington home games this season have finished within six points of the spread (most recently was a push in Week 9 as a three-point underdog to Minnesota). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 17
Walder’s pick: Falcons 20, Commanders 19
FPI prediction: WSH, 60.6% (by an average of 3.0 points)
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DEN -1.5 (36)
What to watch for: This game could be a nightmare for those that like high-scoring contests. Or good quarterback play. Or much offense at all. The Broncos rank last in the league in scoring with 14.7 points per game and the Panthers are 25th with 18.9, including their 3-point effort in their Week 11 loss to Baltimore. In terms of the quarterback position, Denver’s Russell Wilson ranks 28th with a Total QBR of 32.3 and has to be thankful for Carolina’s collective QBR of 20.8. — David Newton
Bold prediction: Though logic would dictate otherwise — starting running back Javonte Williams is on injured reserve and backup Melvin Gordon III was waived this week — the Broncos will join the 30 club and be the seventh team this season to run the ball at least 30 times against the Panthers, who give up 137.0 rushing yards per game. The Panthers have a high pressure rate in their pass rush, and the only way for the Broncos to try to keep Wilson out of harm’s way behind a patchwork offensive line will be to hand the ball off and utilize play-action to throw. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: There are 36 QBs with at least 10 starts the past two seasons. Sam Darnold‘s 39.5 Total QBR ranks 33rd and Baker Mayfield‘s 32.3 QBR ranks last. And Mayfield’s 17.8 Total QBR this season would rank 520th out of 521 qualifying seasons since QBR began in 2006 (only Jimmy Clausen in 2010 for the Panthers was worse).
What to know for fantasy: Latavius Murray has rushed for a score in three of his past four games and now has enhanced volume expectations with Gordon waived and Chase Edmonds banged up. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered three home games this season, and the total has gone under in each of those instances. It’s a low number this week, and it might not be low enough! Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 13, Panthers 10
Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Panthers 16
FPI prediction: DEN, 53.1% (by an average of 1.1 points)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -3 (48)
What to watch for: The Cardinals are in a state of utter disarray at the moment. Facing another good quarterback in Justin Herbert won’t help settle the situation. The Cardinals can’t get their offense moving, and their defense hasn’t forced a quarterback to have a completion percentage under 61.1%. With all the issues Arizona is facing already, having to play a playoff contender on a short week isn’t an ideal situation. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen has returned from a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined nearly all season. In his first full game last Sunday, he caught five passes for 94 yards. Watch for Allen to eclipse the 100-receving yard mark against a Cardinals defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL and allows an average of 245 passing yards per game. — Lindsey Thiry
What to know for fantasy: Both Mike Williams and Allen were active last week, but neither was quite right. Those limitations left the door open for Joshua Palmer to have his best game of the season with 30.6 fantasy points (his fifth game this season with at least 13 fantasy points). See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: Arizona enters this week on short rest, and that means one of two outcomes: cover and over, or no cover and under. That might sound simple, but it’s held for each of their past six games played on a short work week. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 30, Cardinals 20
Walder’s pick: Chargers 34, Cardinals 24
FPI prediction: ARI, 62.6% (by an average of 3.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers sign Dicker the kicker as Hopkins heads to IR … Cardinals assistant coach Kugler fired for groping woman, sources say … Murray meets boy he inspired during cancer treatment
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: SEA -4 (47.5)
What to watch for: One area where the Seahawks appear to have a distinct advantage in this matchup is their offensive line — playing at home — versus the Raiders’ disappointing pass rush. Las Vegas has gotten nine sacks out of Maxx Crosby but ranks dead last as a team with 12, as no one else has more than one. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank sixth in ESPN’s pass block win rate. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Davante Adams, who has been on a three-game tear to the tune of 26 catches for 413 yards and five touchdowns, will set a Raiders franchise record with his fourth straight game with at least 100 yards receiving and a TD. While Seahawks rookie CB Tariq Woolen is second in the NFL with five interceptions, Seattle is just No. 21 in the NFL in pass defense. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Adams is the sixth player in NFL history with six or more seasons with at least 10 TD catches, joining Hall of Famers Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens and Cris Carter.
Doug Kezirian explains why he is laying points with the Seahawks in their matchup with the Raiders.
What to know for fantasy: Don’t let the bye week allow you to forget that Geno Smith leads the league in completion percentage, especially not when he gets to face the worst defense in terms of opponent completion percentage this season. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: Seattle’s average cover margin in its six ATS victories is 11.3 points. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 34, Raiders 23
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 26, Raiders 20
FPI prediction: LV, 51.4% (by an average of 0.6 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: KC -15 (42)
What to watch for: With one notable exception, the Chiefs dominate their NFC opponents. The Chiefs won their past 13 regular-season games against NFC teams dating to a 2019 loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, a game in which Patrick Mahomes did not play because of injury. The Chiefs are 2-0 this year against the NFC, beating the Cardinals and 49ers by a combined 44 points. The Chiefs did lose Super Bowl LV to the Bucs in the middle of this streak, though. Meanwhile, the Rams are 0-1 this season against AFC opponents, having lost to the Bills. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Kyren Williams will lead the running backs in touches. Although Cam Akers led the Rams’ trio of running backs in rushing in Week 11 against the Saints, Williams led in offensive snaps, playing 35 compared to Akers’ 25 and Darrell Henderson Jr.’s 4. Henderson was waived Tuesday, further freeing up snaps and touches. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Mahomes is 19-3 in his career as a starter in Week 12 or later, the best record among QBs to debut in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), minimum 20 starts. He’s 10-1 in his career at home in Week 12 or later, with the only regular-season loss in 2018 Week 15 against the Chargers.
What to know for fantasy: Allen Robinson II scored in the first game following Cooper Kupp‘s injury, and while his production outside of the red zone is questionable at best, there’s no denying he is the featured target in close. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: It has been more than a month since the Rams covered a spread and just shy of 11 months since they covered a regular-season game that went over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 42, Rams 17
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 33, Rams 23
FPI prediction: KC, 88.2% (by an average of 14.3 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -9.5 (43)
What to watch for: The 49ers are on a roll, having won three in a row, but they enter this game off a long trip that included almost a week in Colorado Springs and a Monday night game at altitude in Mexico City. Long road trips haven’t been kind to the Niners in the past, as they’ve gone 1-4 following lengthy stays elsewhere. Even after beating the Cardinals on Monday, multiple players immediately cautioned against a potential trap upon returning to the Bay Area. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: The Saints’ offense will see a regression from last week when going up against the 49ers’ top-ranked run defense. Before last week’s win over the Rams, the Saints scored a total of 23 points combined in losses to the Ravens and Steelers, both of whom have top-10 run defenses. Expect another low-scoring game for the Saints against a team that hasn’t allowed more than 67 rushing yards in each of its past three games. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Christian McCaffrey needs one receiving touchdown to become the fourth player in NFL history to record 30 rushing TDs and 20 receiving TDs in their first six NFL seasons (Alvin Kamara, Chuck Foreman and Lenny Moore).
What to know for fantasy: Juwan Johnson has scored five times in his past five games. The volume is underwhelming (under five targets in three of his past four games), but you’re chasing touchdown equity if you don’t have an elite tight end, and Johnson has proven viable in that regard. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Saints have yet to cover a road game, failing to cover by an average of 7.3 points in the process. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Saints 20
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Saints 23
FPI prediction: SF, 78.4% (by an average of 9.1 points)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: PHI -6.5 (46)
What to watch for: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will face one of his toughest tests of the season, going against an Eagles defense that is tied for first in interceptions (13) and is second in pass yards allowed per game (178.4). One area where the Philly secondary has been vulnerable lately is at slot corner, with Avonte Maddox on injured reserve. The Packers might look to move the red-hot Christian Watson inside at times, similar to what the Commanders did with Terry McLaurin to great success in Week 10. — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Jalen Hurts will only hurt the Packers with his arm, not his legs. Green Bay has had more than a full week to prepare for the dual-threat starter, who is only the third quarterback with 30 touchdown passes and 20 touchdown runs in a 30-start span since the 1970 merger. Even though their defense has been abysmal this season, the Packers won’t let Hurts score on the ground. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Eagles are 9-1 for just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era (also 1980, 2004 and 2017). They reached the Super Bowl in each of the previous three 9-1 seasons.
Doug Kezirian gives his vote of confidence for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense to cover against the Packers.
What to know for fantasy: Allen Lazard has more targets and more routes run than Watson, who has been the Packers receiver lighting the fantasy world ablaze over the past two weeks (five touchdowns). It’s OK to be encouraged by the production of the rookie, but be careful in assuming Lazard is an afterthought. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: The ugly loss to the Commanders was the Eagles’ most recent home game, but that game did go over the total, something that has happened in each of Philadelphia’s past four home games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Packers 20
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Packers 16
FPI prediction: PHI, 73.7% (by an average of 7.3 points)
What to watch for: Colts right tackle Braden Smith will have his hands full with Steelers All-Pro pass-rusher T.J. Watt, but there’s a notable matchup brewing on the opposite side pitting Colts rookie left tackle Bernhard Raimann against Steelers edge rusher Alex Highsmith. Raimann has been overmatched at times in recent games. He has allowed seven sacks despite making just five starts and playing only 46% of the offensive snaps this season. Meanwhile, Highsmith has been enjoying a career year. He has nine sacks and three multi-sack games, and this is an opportunity for him to add to that total. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: The Steelers will hold Colts running back Jonathan Taylor to 55 yards or fewer. Mike Tomlin said he expects Colts interim head coach Jeff Saturday to emphasize the run, but the Steelers’ run defense is an underrated strength of the team. After having the worst unit in the league a year before, the Steelers are holding offenses to slightly more than 100 yards per game. Taylor is the Colts’ best playmaker, but Saturday and quarterback Matt Ryan will have to find another method to beat the Steelers. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: In six prime-time games, Taylor has averaged 103.7 rushing yards per game, which includes 100-yard rushing outings in each of his past four games under the lights. Since the Super Bowl era began, the only players to average more rushing yards in prime-time games are O.J. Simpson and Barry Sanders, according to Elias Sports Bureau research.
What to know for fantasy: Najee Harris is averaging seven more carries over the past two weeks than he did prior to Week 10. It’s too late to recoup all of the value from the fantasy first-rounder, but he’s locked in as a fantasy starter this week, something that hasn’t been said much after the first month of the season. See Week 12 rankings.
Betting nugget: Vegas knows how to handicap the Steelers on the road on Monday night. Each of Pittsburgh’s past seven games in such a spot saw the total finish within five points of the projection. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 23, Steelers 14
Walder’s pick: Colts 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: IND, 66.6% (by an average of 4.9 points)