The races for the final spots in the 2023 World Baseball Classic quarterfinals are coming down to the last days of pool play and, thanks to the tournament’s unique five-team groups, several WBC tiebreaker scenarios could come into play.
So what happens should either Pool C (which the United States currently leads with Mexico, Colombia and Canada tied for second) or Pool D (which Venezuela leads followed by Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Israel) end in a tie?
We’ve already seen one pool decided by the tiebreakers — all five teams in Pool A finished with a 2-2 record and Cuba and Italy moved on.
Here is how the WBC tiebreakers work, and what it means for the teams in both remaining groups.
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WBC tiebreaker rules
Two-team tiebreaker: Head-to-head record.
This is pretty simple. If two countries are tied in the standings, the team that won their pool-play matchup moves on.
But what happens if three or more teams are tied in the standings? This is where things get more complicated.
Multiteam tiebreaker No. 1: Lowest quotient of runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.
OK, so what does that mean?
Instead of using overall run differential, this WBC tiebreaker comes down to how many runs your team allowed against the other teams that it is tied with (the added math of dividing by the number of outs recorded helps account for extra-innings games or those shortened by a run rule).
Using the five-way tie in Pool A as an example, Cuba gave up 15 runs and recorded 108 outs in four pool games (which all counted toward the tiebreaker, since all five teams had the same record). The average of .139 runs allowed per out was the best rate in the group so Cuba moved on (Italy was next at .157, so it also advanced).
Multiteam tiebreaker No. 2: Lowest quotient of earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.
If you follow the formula for tiebreaker one, this second one is actually quite simple. It is the same idea, just using only earned runs allowed instead of total runs allowed.
Multiteam tiebreaker No. 3: Highest batting average in games between the tied teams.
If the teams are still tied after using both formulas for runs allowed, offensive performance finally comes into play. Next, we’ll turn to the batting average each team posted against the other teams in the tiebreaker.
Multiteam tiebreaker No. 4: The drawing of lots between the tied teams.
Yes, you read that right. In the very unlikely event that the previous tiebreakers don’t solve things, the team(s) that move on will be decided by essentially picking names out of a hat. Given the detail of the first three tiebreakers, it seems almost impossible … but hey, you never know, right?
So how could all of this come into play for the nations battling for the remaining quarterfinal spots? Let’s take a look at the two groups still playing opening-round games.
What it means for the United States, Mexico and Pool C
Mexico 2-1
United States 2-1
Canada 2-1
Colombia 1-2
Great Britain 1-3
Team USA’s blowout win over Canada coupled with a surprising Great Britain upset of Colombia on Monday night made the United States’ path much clearer. If Team USA beats Colombia on Wednesday night, it advances with a 3-1 record. They’d advance in the second spot if Mexico beats Canada on Wednesday — El Tri would go through on top by virtue of a head-to-head win over the US.
But a loss to Colombia and a 2-2 record for the U.S. could spell trouble: Canada or Mexico would still be capable of finishing 3-1 and claiming a quarterfinal spot. If multiple teams finish 2-2, the United States’ fate likely will depend on which other teams are in the tiebreaker — head-to-head and runs allowed will come into play since the U.S. blew out Canada 12-1 and gave up 11 runs in a loss to Mexico.
What it means for the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Pool D
Venezuela 3-0
Puerto Rico 2-1
Dominican Republic 2-1
Israel 1-2
Nicaragua 0-4
Venezuela, which won all of its first three games, became the first team in Pool D to secure its spot in the quarterfinals on Tuesday, when the Dominican Republic beat Israel.
That all means the most intrigue in this group is likely to come in the battle between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic for the one remaining spot — and those two teams happen to play each other on Wednesday night in a winner-moves-on battle.