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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2022-23 NHL regular season is nearing its end, and it was a record-breaking campaign for the Boston Bruins as a team and a historic season for Connor McDavid, who is scoring like it is the early 1990s.
But many teams have already been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They’ll be looking ahead to this offseason, where the draft, free agency and trades will help put them in a better position to compete in 2023-24.
Read on for a look at what went wrong for each eliminated team, along with a breakdown of its biggest keys this offseason and realistic expectations for next season. Note that more teams will be added to this story as they are officially eliminated from the playoffs.
Go through every team’s profile or skip ahead to your favorite team using the links below:
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metro teams were written by Kristen Shilton, while Ryan S. Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific teams. Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey. Projected cap space per Cap Friendly.
Jump to a team:
ANA | ARI | CHI | CBJ
DET | MTL | OTT | PHI
SJ | STL | VAN | WSH
Non-playoff teams
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $39,973,333
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (BOS), 2nd (COL), 3rd, 3rd (MIN), 4th, 5th, 6th
What went wrong?
An argument could be made that losing promising puck-moving defenseman Jamie Drysdale to a season-ending injury just eight games in to the season was a sign of a doomed campaign. The Ducks failed to reach the heights they achieved during the 2021-22 season when there was a time in which it appeared as if they could make a run at a playoff spot.
Drysdale’s injury set the stage for the Ducks to be in the discussion for which team had the worst 2022-23 season. They gave up the most goals per game, scored the second-fewest goals per game, and they were percentage points away from owning both the poorest penalty kill and power play in the entire NHL.
Typically, seasons such as this come with the hope that it can be parlayed into possibly winning the draft lottery. If they do, the Ducks could have a future centered around Connor Bedard, Drysdale, Mason McTavish, Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras, among others. Or if they land at No. 2, there’s a chance it could be Adam Fantilli instead.
Keys to the offseason
Other than what could happen with the draft lottery and the draft? There’s a lot. Namely, what happens with Ducks coach Dallas Eakins? He signed a one-year extension last offseason, but questions about his future have been raised given the Ducks just endured one of the most challenging seasons in franchise history.
Ducks GM Pat Verbeek must also sort out new contracts for Drysdale, Terry and Zegras. Each of them are pending restricted free agents who are part of the team’s long-term plans. Drysdale might have the most nuanced negotiations considering the 2021-22 season is his only full campaign, whereas Terry and Zegras have obviously played in many more games. It still amounts to Verbeek working to secure three players central to the organization’s long-term aspirations.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Next season has a chance to be a formative one for the Ducks in terms of evaluating the next steps of their rebuild. They have three defensemen who are pending unrestricted free agents, which means there could be a chance for the Ducks to see both defensive improvement in addition to seeing which of their deep pool of defensive prospects could be ready to take the next step.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $26,243,690
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (OTT), 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (EDM), 3rd (NYI), 3rd (WSH), 4th, 5th, 5th (VGK), 6th, 6th (CBJ)
What went wrong?
The Coyotes were the lowest-scoring team in the NHL last season. This season? They scored the sixth-fewest goals. And similar to many teams in their position, they were also prone to surrendering goals in bunches. It’s why the Coyotes allowed the ninth most goals overall.
Then there’s the jarring reality of how they played at Mullett Arena compared to anywhere else in the league. The Coyotes won 20 home games, and that is the sort of figure normally reserved for playoff teams or teams that just fell short of the postseason. Yet the fact they finished with the fewest road wins in the NHL, with seven, offers another explanation as to why this season saw them finish near the bottom of the league standings.
Yet the most complex part of all this? It still was not enough for them to finish with the fewest points and attain the strongest odds to win the draft lottery. The Coyotes entered the final month of the regular season with the sixth-best odds to win the lottery because they were more than 10 points better than the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets, the two teams leading the chase for the No. 1 pick.
Keys to the offseason
As of now, there appear to be two notable questions when it comes to Coyotes’ offseason plans. The first being: What happens at the NHL draft? They’ve been part of the collective of teams that have positioned themselves for the chance to draft the presumed No. 1 pick in Connor Bedard or the potential No. 2 pick in Adam Fantilli. Both are considered to be the sort of potential franchise-changing players that the Coyotes could add to a blueprint that is concentrated on a better future.
Potentially drafting a franchise-player, however, might not be the most important item facing the Coyotes this offseason. Thus the second question: What will happen with the Coyotes’ arena situation? On May 16, there will be a special election to determine whether the Coyotes can start building a new arena and entertainment district in Tempe. That could give the Coyotes a permanent home — with the realization that a failed vote would create questions about what comes next as an alternative.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Players such as Clayton Keller, Matias Maccelli, J.J. Moser and Nick Schmaltz are examples of why the Coyotes believe this latest attempt at a rebuild could work. Even then, it comes with the understanding that it could still take a while for the Coyotes to build out the sort of prospect base that allows them to climb up the standings. And because of that, it’s why the Coyotes could use their cap space to sign players who they might eventually trade for more draft capital while they continue to build one of the NHL’s more promising farm systems.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $40,336,543
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (TB), 2nd, 2nd (NYR), 2nd (OTT), 2nd (TB), 3rd, 3rd (DAL), 4th, 5th, 7th
What went wrong?
Quite a bit. To say the Blackhawks scored the fewest goals in the NHL this season tells only part of the story. They were last in shots per 60, goals scored per 60, scoring chances per 60, high-danger chances per 60 and were third from last in high-danger goals scored per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.
A lack of scoring was not the only issue. Giving up goals was also a problem. On the surface, they were a top-10 team in terms of goals allowed. But their underlying metrics also reveal a much deeper problem. They were in the bottom five of shots allowed per 60, goals allowed per 60, scoring chances allowed per 60, high-danger chances allowed per 60 and were seventh in high-danger goals allowed per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. There was also the fact the Blackhawks were and still are a team in transition.
All of the above is what made the “Will they? Won’t they” narrative around the futures of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews one that would not go away. Kane was one of a number of players the Blackhawks moved at the trade deadline while there are still questions about Toews’ future going forward.
Keys to the offseason
Chicago is another franchise that will have its offseason partially dictated by what happens with the draft lottery. Landing a player like Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli could strengthen what is already viewed to be one of the stronger prospect pools in the NHL. Getting either one of those two would also heightened what has the chance to be an important draft considering the Blackhawks have two first-round picks and eight picks in the first three rounds.
As for the copious amount of cap space? It’s possible the Blackhawks could use some of that to sign players they feel can help them long term. There’s also the possibility they could sign players whom they believe can help with their future aspirations by trading them at the deadline in order to gain more draft capital — which was the case with Max Domi signing a one-year deal before he was moved to the Dallas Stars.
Then there’s Toews. He’s a pending UFA who is free to move to another team, stay with the Blackhawks or call it a career that saw him captain three Stanley Cup-winning teams.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
One of the more revealing items about the Blackhawks’ setup for next season is they have seven players under contract who will earn more than $1.2 million. The rest of the team will be on six-figure deals. And for those players on cheap contracts? It could be a chance to show why they can be part of what the Blackhawks believe can be a brighter future.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $18,616,667
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (LA), 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (CGY), 4th, 4th (WPG), 5th (BOS), 7th
What went wrong?
Columbus was decimated by key injuries this season, plain and simple. Zach Werenski, Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine, Jake Bean, and on and on in a parade to the infirmary which clearly impacted the Blue Jackets’ overall chances.
But injuries weren’t the team’s only problem. Even early in the season when relatively healthy Columbus lost nine of its first 12 games. Elvis Merzlikins rarely performed like the No. 1 netminder he’s supposed to be, and that killed any momentum the Blue Jackets could find offensively — which wasn’t much to begin with. Columbus ranked in the bottom-10 of the league on the power play and were top-three in goals and shots against. That’s no way to rack up wins.
Keys to the offseason
The Blue Jackets’ freefalling their way to the NHL basement gives them an excellent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in this spring’s draft. That’s where GM Jarmo Kekalainen’s initial focus should land.
Columbus has two first-round selections, and that could turn into two potentially top prospects or one draftee and a possible flip elsewhere for immediate help. That decision may hinge on where Kekalainen sees the Blue Jackets headed from here. Can they rebound into contender-mode right away, or is Columbus tracking toward more of a rebuilding mindset?
The former option means addressing the Blue Jackets’ back end in a big way. Columbus was in on Jakob Chychrun before he was dealt to Ottawa, and having traded Vladislav Gavrikov, there is a clear need to upgrade what the Blue Jackets have going. Kekalainen will have to decide if David Jiricek or Adam Boqvist are viable, every-night options in the top-four rotation, or if that sort of player will be found in a trade or free agency. In that case, he’d better get down to dealing.
Then there’s a matter of replacing some of what Columbus lost in terms of veteran contributors. The Blue Jackets have seen key leaders out the door in recent seasons, from former captain Nick Foligno to Voracek most recently. When a club is coming out of a tough grind like this season, it’s important to have some battle-scarred skaters around to remind the rest of the group that what transpired in the past doesn’t have to define the future. That’s a message Columbus needs to take loud and clear from whatever Kekalainen decides to do in the coming months.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Unless there’s a major offseason overhaul — with or without No. 1 overall pick Connor Bedard — Columbus doesn’t trend toward being a playoff team next season, either. That could change with the right infusion of new talent and with Merzlikins bouncing back into form. Right now there’s a lot of “what ifs” standing in the way of a Blue Jackets resurgence.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $29,708,611
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NYI), 2nd, 2nd (STL), 2nd (VAN), 3rd, 4th (MIN), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Detroit’s goal starting this season was to improve its team defense over 2021-22, and ultimately translate a busy offseason of key signings into a playoff berth. Ultimately, that wasn’t meant to be.
The Red Wings’ underlying numbers across the board didn’t improve enough. Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider struggled through sophomore campaigns. Andrew Copp hasn’t quite clicked. And that overall defensive improvement Detroit aspired toward failed to extend past a promising early commitment. All that, plus relying too much on Ville Husso to save the day, landed Detroit lower in the standings than expected.
Keys to the offseason:
The Red Wings have to define their goals here. After GM Steve Yzerman added in the last offseason, it looked like Detroit was done rebuilding. Then Yzerman was a seller at the deadline — parting with Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek and others — which indicated perhaps Detroit isn’t done restructuring.
Which is it now? Will the Red Wings be aggressive this summer again in adding to the fold and attempting to be playoff contenders in 2023-24? Or will Yzerman stay committed to this new retool, wait on prospect development, and then reassess?
That leads Detroit to the upcoming NHL draft, a critical threshold for Yzerman & Co. The Red Wings wield two first-round selections and three second-round choices. That’s enviable capital that Yzerman must use to either a) hit on players the organization can successfully develop or b) flip for known commodities that will best position Detroit to be challengers now, as opposed to later. Outside of selecting Raymond and Moritz, the Red Wings haven’t been excellent lately at the draft table. That has to change.
Regardless of which path Detroit takes, at minimum they need to figure out a reliable No. 2 goaltender behind Husso. Alex Nedeljkovic wasn’t that this season, and it forced Husso into being on the league’s most utilized netminders. A better balance in the crease will give Detroit more good nights from Husso, which should be the priority.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Detroit is at a crossroads. What path they choose will define the season ahead. The expectation should be that whatever way Yzerman decides to go, this time he’ll see that philosophy through the entire season — unless, of course, the Red Wings gave him a good enough reason not to.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $8,770,834
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (FLA), 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th (PIT), 4th (VGK), 5th, 5th (CGY), 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Technically, nothing. Montreal didn’t expect to be a playoff team, and they weren’t. What the Canadiens wanted was to be competitive, allow their young players to grow and ultimately continue a rebuild that began in earnest 12 months ago.
Montreal also battled through an extreme number of injuries and saw some of those performers on the rise — including Arber Xhekaj, Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield — miss extended time from the lineup. The Canadiens’ primary intention though was to keep growing. In that sense Montreal did more right than wrong this season.
Keys to the offseason:
The Canadiens have promise. GM Kent Hughes’ next task is deciding who’s a real-deal, long-term piece for the franchise, and who might not fit the bill. Going through the roster and assessing a bevy of young talent will allow Hughes to make the best decisions possible at the draft and into free agency. That includes relying on the team’s scouting department to scour as many tournaments and leagues as possible searching for who else Montreal could be in the market to bring on.
Montreal should also have money to spend. How will that fit into Hughes’ plan? Veterans Jonathan Drouin, Sean Monahan and Paul Byron all become UFAs in July, and the Canadiens don’t project to resign any of them. That will leave cap space for Hughes to dole out elsewhere based on where Montreal’s biggest holes are to fill and also on what sort of timeline Hughes believes there is for the club to become more competitive.
Answering that question will be a key in itself for Montreal. Are they in for a low-and-slow crescendo here or will Hughes see enough potential in this group to fast-track a bit, take advantage of how Nick Suzuki, Caufield and others have emerged and surround them with complementary pieces?
And in doing so, could Hughes move some of those larger veteran contracts — Brendan Gallagher or Mike Hoffman, for instance — that would open the door for fresh faces? Montreal’s attention is firmly on its future and these decisions will impact how smoothly the organization transitions there.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Montreal is unlikely to be a playoff team. If the Canadiens make smart decisions though, they could remain in the mix long enough to give that young core some invaluable experience playing meaningful hockey next March and April.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $13,550,953
2023 draft picks: 4th, 5th, 7th, 7th (NSH), 7th (NYR)
What went wrong?
Ottawa was unlucky in the injury department, and that may well have been the nail in their coffin. The Senators lost top forward Josh Norris (shoulder) for almost the entire season and top defenseman Thomas Chabot twice. Cam Talbot was hurt before the season even began. Anton Forsberg landed on IR. GM Pierre Dorion went all-out acquiring Jakob Chychrun to help get the Senators to the playoffs and he was quickly sidelined by a hamstring issue.
It was a lot. There were other obstacles as well — Drake Batherson and Alex DeBrincat didn’t always thrive as expected and Talbot wasn’t the clear-cut No. 1 Ottawa hoped for — and it all added up to a disappointing finish for the Senators.
Keys to the offseason
First off, Ottawa has a decision to make on DeBrincat. The pending RFA is owed a $9 million qualifying offer that may be too rich for the Senators given DeBrincat may not be interested in signing a long-term extension with the club. So Ottawa will have to explore the trade market and see if there’s a willing partner to take DeBrincat on so they don’t completely lose out on the investment (of a first-round and two second-round draft picks) they made acquiring him last summer.
Speaking of trades, Ottawa must also assess where it’s at in the net. Forsberg was playing well before his season-ending knee injury. Mads Sogaard has shown some promise as well. Does that mean Talbot could be expendable? Will Dorion at least explore replacing him? Ottawa landed in the bottom-third of the league in goals-against this season and while that could be attributed to the pile up of defensive injuries, there’s a need to feel more stable and confident in the club’s goaltending, too. Who can ultimately provide that will be an important decision by Dorion.
The Senators are fortunate to have a stable of exciting young talents in Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Chabot, Norris and more. Dorion can’t back down now from continuing to add around them. Chychrun was a great get and, when healthy, will make a big difference for the Senators next season. It’s imperative that Dorion be aggressive in maximizing his current talent, especially after seeing what they were capable of in the final push to the finish line that nearly saw Ottawa sneak its way into the playoffs.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
A healthier Ottawa team could have made the postseason this year. There’s no reason to think that the same won’t be true next year. The Senators should enter training camp with playoff aspirations and join other up-and-coming Atlantic teams in unseating one — or more — of the division’s old guard contenders.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $8,029,809
2023 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (FLA), 3rd (NYR), 4th, 4th (EDM), 5th, 6th, 6th (OTT), 7th
What went wrong?
Philadelphia missed the playoffs for a fourth time in five years. The Flyers didn’t have the talent available to compete at that level, not even when goaltender Carter Hart was putting on a show — as he did often early on — or when Philadelphia’s offense sparked its way to some solid runs. The Flyers never maintained momentum, and ex-GM Chuck Fletcher’s passivity at the trade deadline ultimately ended with his being fired and Philadelphia turning toward a two-pronged front-office scheme of one GM and one director of hockey operations. Some would argue that a directional shift should have been made sooner. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Keys to the offseason:
The Flyers can hit the ground running with management decisions. Danny Briere should have the “interim” tag removed from his GM title and begin the process of rebuilding Philadelphia for a more prosperous future. What will that look like? At their best the Flyers have been a physical, gritty, hard-working team that packs a wallop. Lately Philadelphia has been hamstrung by bad veteran contracts that haven’t allowed the club to spread its wings. Now, with young players like Cam York and Owen Tippett on the rise, Briere’s focus should be on surrounding those pieces with as much help as he can — even if it means taking more time before the Flyers ascend again.
Philadelphia would rise faster though if Briere can offload some of those aforementioned weighty deals. If the Flyers are indeed keying on a larger re-tool then exploring the trade market for forward Kevin Hayes (signed through 2026-17 at over $7 million per season) is a top priority. After that, Philadelphia has to look at a) who it has in the prospect cupboard that can step in immediately and b) what other marketable assets it might have to dangle in front of other teams.
Coach John Tortorella took over in Philadelphia knowing there was work to do. But it’s also not likely he’s interested in presiding over a lengthy overhaul that doesn’t include at least the prospect of being a playoff team in the next couple seasons. If that is the case, then how much change can the Flyers make all at once without it overwhelming the entire system? Briere has to be cognizant of drafting well, too. That hasn’t been a strength of the Flyers’ in the past and they’ve paid the price by not being able to build as fast from the inside out.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
It’s rare a team will go from bottom-dwellers to playoff contenders in one season. Philadelphia should improve from what it showed this season if Briere can check even a couple keys from his offseason to-do list. While that might not lead to Philadelphia competing within the Metro, it should provide enough hope to tide the team over for another year.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $15,300,832
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NJ), 2nd, 3rd (CAR), 4th, 4th (SEA), 5th, 5th (CBJ), 6th, 7th, 7th (PIT), 7th (VAN)
What went wrong?
Perhaps this says it all about the Sharks. They have seven players who scored nearly 70 percent of their goals and two of them don’t even play for the team anymore. In fact, Timo Meier still leads the Sharks in goals and he’s been gone for nearly a month. This is all to reinforce how a lack of depth scoring proved to once again be a major challenge for the Sharks.
Then there’s the matter of consistently being scored upon. While some of their problems were highlighted in their overall defensive metrics, maybe the most telling piece of information about the Sharks’ struggles was their goaltending. They had the lowest team save percentage and the second worst high-danger save percentage in the NHL, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Keys to the offseason
Every lottery team has a campaign pitch for why they should get the No. 1 pick. The Sharks also have a slogan, and it’s the fact they have not had a top three pick since they drafted Brad Stuart back in 1998. It’s another reason why winning the draft lottery — or at least getting a top-three pick — is so crucial.
It’s possible the Sharks could also use this offseason to potentially gain more draft capital for the future. Erik Karlsson‘s resurgence into a Norris Trophy candidate led to trade rumors. But those rumors came with the caveat Karlsson is owed $11.5 million per season over the next four seasons.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Could next season see some of the Sharks’ prospects take a larger role with the club? Thomas Bordeleau and Henry Thrun played late in the year while William Eklund is expected to be available for training camp after having offseason shoulder surgery. And what happens if the player the Sharks draft in the first round is one who makes their roster out of camp? It’s possible that it could give the franchise a glimpse of what’s to come.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $4,969,583
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NYR), 1st (TOR), 3rd, 3rd (OTT), 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Being consistently inconsistent proved to be the biggest hurdle facing the Blues when it came to why they missed the playoffs for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018-19. It was a season in which they at one point alternated an eight-game losing streak with a seven-game winning streak, only to never reach the point in which they had more wins than combined regulation and overtime losses.
That inconsistency also came at a time in which the Blues needed to start thinking about their future. Vladimir Tarasenko was a pending UFA who appeared to have a fractured relationship with the organization while captain Ryan O’Reilly was also slated to hit the open market at the end of the season. It led to the Blues trading away two franchise cornerstones along with Ivan Barbashev to gain draft capital for the future.
Yet a potential silver lining could be the decision to sign Kasperi Kapanen on waivers while trading for Jakub Vrana. Those moves saw the Blues add two top-nine forwards who became two of their more offensively consistent forwards toward the end of the regular season.
Keys to the offseason
Having three first-round picks shows there is an emphasis on the Blues’ future that is being led by players such as Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, both of whom start twin eight-year deals carrying a $8.125 million AAV next season. But there is also a discussion to be had about what happens with the Blues’ current roster and what potential challenges Blues GM Doug Armstrong could face when it comes to making changes ahead of next season.
An item that could make moving certain players difficult — should Armstrong go that route — is the fact a number of them are about to start or are on long-term contracts. Excluding Kyrou and Thomas, the Blues have seven players who have more than two years on their contract that are set to earn more than $4 million annually. It’s one of the reasons why the Blues will have limited cap space to play with compared to other teams.
Four of those players — Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Nick Leddy and Colton Parayko — are defensemen, while another is goaltender Jordan Binnington. While coaches often state that defense is a five-player construct, the Blues could be forced to take a look at their defensive and goaltending dynamics. They were in the top five or top 10 of most shots allowed per 60, most goals allowed per 60, most scoring chances allowed per 60, most high-danger chances allowed per 60, most high-danger goals allowed per 60, lowest high-danger save percentage and lowest team save percentage per 60.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
That’s just it. Look back over the Blues history and you’ll find that they typically have a plan that sees them get back into the postseason in relatively short order. The longest the Blues have gone without a playoff berth was three years, and that was back in the mid-2000s. Other than that, they’re usually back within two years. And if they can solve their defensive issues? It’s possible this could just be a temporary issue rather than a long-term problem.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $0
2023 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 3rd (TOR), 4th, 4th (DET), 4th (NYR), 6th
What went wrong?
They went from being a potential playoff team to opening the season on a seven-game losing streak to never having more wins than combined regulation and overtime losses. They fired their second coach in 14 months to hire a third coach who was vocal about how the team still needed work.
They launched an investigation into the handling of Tanner Pearson‘s hand injury, traded captain Bo Horvat, have been near the top 10 in scoring but are also in the top five in goals allowed, and have the kind of record that makes them a lottery team but one that does not have the strongest odds to draft a player considered to be a generational talent in Connor Bedard, who is from North Vancouver.
Keys to the offseason
It appears there are quite a few questions facing the Canucks. One of them being how do they clear cap space? The Canucks ended the regular season with no available cap space with the idea there could be a chance for them to get some contracts off the books.
Even if they clear that cap space, what’s the next step? Would it be better for the Canucks to address their current issues such as their defensive play knowing that could have a major impact? Or are they better off starting all over again and trying to stockpile the team with the sort of draft capital others are using for what they hope is a brighter future?
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
At this point, there is an argument that the Canucks may not be that far away in the event they can overhaul their defensive issues. Doing that while still harnessing the ability to score could change their fortunes. But that also comes with the understanding it may not be the most feasible solution given their cap issues while also determining what makes more sense for them beyond 2023-24.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $7,369,166
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th
What went wrong?
Washington was inconsistent. And they were hurt. That was hardly a recipe for success, and so the Capitals will miss playoffs for the first time since 2013-14.
Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson missed the first half of the season, and that clearly altered the Capitals’ attack even with Alex Ovechkin‘s impressive efforts in pursuit of history. But it was losing John Carlson in December to a head injury that really gutted Washington. The Capitals just couldn’t replace all that Carlson does, and while Darcy Kuemper and Jesper Lindgren attempted to hold the fort in net it wasn’t enough to offset how much Washington was lacking in front of them.
The Capitals were constantly chasing games, perpetually on their heels. When the trade deadline hit and GM Brian MacLellan was selling off expiring veteran contracts, Washington basically announced it was ceding the season. Frankly, that was probably their smartest play.
Keys to the offseason:
Washington has already done some work to prepare for next season. But the big issue will be stabilizing the blue line. MacLellan traded for 23-year-old Rasmus Sandin in March, and has one first- and one second-round pick to play with in this upcoming draft. Can he use either as leverage to bring in some seasoned defensive talent that would put the Capitals in better position next time they face a deluge of injuries?
That leads into another question needing to be answered: what to make of Washington’s remaining core? Ovechkin is an apparently ageless wonder, and it’s obvious the Capitals want to support him in attempting to break Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894 goals. Washington can’t afford to have tunnel vision there, though. Evgeny Kuznetsov reportedly wants out which, if Washington does trade him, would leave a big hole up front. Backstrom is still savvy at 35, but has dealt with enough injuries that it becomes concerning how much he can keep providing. Same goes for T.J. Oshie. Deciding whether to go younger or stick with a more veteran core will be another key part of Washington’s offseason assessment.
What was uncharacteristic about the Capitals this season was how often they played from behind, and were lethargic, and took so long to really get engaged in the game. Those qualities could have been the difference between staying in the playoff hunt and not. Part of what MacLellan will have to do is pinpoint why Washington wasn’t itself in those respects. Do they need a new voice behind the bench after two seasons with Peter Laviolette? Or was there another issue that needs uprooting to improve the Capitals’ consistency?
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Washington went on a nearly decade-long run of postseason appearances. It’s hard to imagine they won’t be in that conversation again next season — if MacLellan addresses some of those larger problems revealed down the stretch this season. It doesn’t feel like a full-blown rebuild is what Washington is headed toward, anyway.