Conn Smythe Watch: Leaders in playoff MVP race as conference finals begin

Greg Wyshynski, ESPNMay 17, 2023, 07:05 AM ET
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The Stanley Cup will be hoisted by either the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars or Vegas Golden Knights. Just as we all predicted.

There are reasons these teams lasted longer than pre-tournament favorites like the Boston Bruins and Colorado Avalanche. Chief among those factors: the outstanding individual performances they’ve received from key players who are now squarely in the conversation for the Conn Smythe Trophy, given to the NHL postseason’s most valuable player.

Keep in mind that in the NHL, the Conn Smythe is based on a player’s performance during the entire postseason, not just the championship round. The award is voted on by an 18-person panel of Professional Hockey Writers Association members.

We polled a dozen writers, including many who will cover the conference finals, to get a sense of the current MVP contenders.

Here’s a look at some of the current leaders for MVP honors, as well as players on the cusp and some big names that have work to do in the conference finals.

The favorites

After he took the crease from Alex Lyon in Game 3 against the Bruins, Bobrovsky played slightly below expectations in posting a .891 save percentage. That said, he led the Cats to one of the biggest upsets in Stanley Cup playoffs history — or at least the biggest since the last time Bobrovsky orchestrated a shocking upset of a regular-season record breaker in 2018, when the Blue Jackets defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1.

But he was “Playoff Bob” in the Panthers’ series win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, posting a .938 save percentage in five games. Say what you will about the Leafs’ will to win, but they were absolutely “goalied” by Bobrovsky in Games 1 and 2 at home, which sent Florida on its way to victory.

Tkachuk wasn’t nearly the offensive force against the Maple Leafs (five points in five games) that he was against the Bruins (11 in seven), but that just speaks to how much the Panthers’ overall play has improved round over round. It’s not like he didn’t have his moments, including a three-assist effort in Game 1 that helped launch the Panthers to the series win.

He’s the spark that lit the flame that burned everyone’s brackets. Unless his numbers crater, he’s going to be in the MVP conversation if the Panthers advance.

Two of the past three Conn Smythe winners were defensemen, and the Hurricanes have two very worthy candidates on their blue line — who also happen to play together. Burns and Slavin surrender just 1.02 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, controlling just over 60% of the shot attempts.

Burns has logged more average ice time (23:55) and scored more points than Slavin (eight in 11 games) thanks in part to logging more power-play time. He has a bit more name recognition than Slavin, and there has certainly been a bit of “how good has Brent Burns been, huh?” conjecture from national media. In other words, he’s a player voters wouldn’t mind lauding with the Conn.

Slavin has been a more integral part of the Canes’ penalty kill, which is clicking at 90%, and his on-ice defensive impact is well established. He has six points and the best plus-minus rating (+14) in the postseason. He has been on the ice for just three goals against in 5-on-5 situations.

It’s still mind-boggling to think that every other top-10 pick from the 2015 draft had appeared in the postseason before Jack Eichel. This is what we were waiting for: a dominant, top-line center performance that has powered the Golden Knights to the conference final for the third time in their short history.

Eichel has 14 points in 11 games, including six goals. He has had two three-point games — in Game 3 against the Winnipeg Jets and Game 5 against the Edmonton Oilers — both critical wins for Vegas. Don’t sleep on the narrative, either: The Conn Smythe would be a fitting finale to Eichel’s journey over the past two seasons from a bitter divorce with the Buffalo Sabres to a career redefinition in Vegas.

The Stars forward is the leading scorer left in the playoffs with 19 points in 13 games, which includes nine goals. It’s not just how many goals he has scored but when he has scored them: a hat trick in Game 2 against Minnesota after his linemate Joe Pavelski was injured in Game 1; and the crucial first goal in the Stars’ elimination games against the Wild and the Seattle Kraken, breaking up a goalie duel in Game 7.

He has been an absolute force for the Stars at even strength, leading them in points (3.42), shots (9.57) and shot attempts (17.43) per 60 minutes. As Jason Robertson has struggled to hit the scoresheet through two rounds, Hintz has more than picked up the slack for Dallas’s top line. Based on our polling, he’s the current leader for the Conn Smythe.

On the cusp

Aho and Martinook enter the conference finals tied with 10 points to lead the Hurricanes in scoring. Aho was the scoring star of the first round against the New York Islanders, with seven points in six games. Martinook was the scoring star of the second round, with 10 points in five games against the New Jersey Devils. In the process, he set a franchise record with four straight multipoint games in the playoffs. Many wondered how the Hurricanes would scare up offense in the playoffs without Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov. Aho and Martinook were like, “We got this.”

Ryan S. Clark of ESPN made the case that the Stars defenseman should be a Conn Smythe leader at this point. “He’s played nearly 280 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time and has only been on the ice for six goals,” Clark said. “Between the minutes, the fact he can play in every situation along with the offensive production, he’s one of the biggest reasons why the Stars are in the conference finals.”

Hard to disagree with any of that. He also has nine points in 13 games and is skating 28:15 per night. The only knock on his candidacy is that his teammate Hintz, based on our polling, has put some distance in front of him.

The Golden Knights are blessed with two of the best two-way forwards in the Western Conference in Stone and Karlsson, who have both had really strong postseasons. Stone returned from back surgery — and promptly took several dozen cross-checks to his back in the first two rounds — to score 12 points in 11 games, including five goals. His offense quieted down against Edmonton, but his goal in Game 5 sparked the Knights’ second-period rally in a win over Edmonton.

Karlsson has eight points in 11 games, but his defensive work in the second round should put him in the Conn Smythe conversation. The Oilers tried to get Connor McDavid away from him. Coach Bruce Cassidy said Karlsson was “in that category of defensive centers” where Patrice Bergeron exists.

There are other Vegas candidates — we see you, Chandler Stephenson — but these two are probably the ones right behind Eichel in the Golden Knights’ MVP race.

The Panthers forward has 12 points in 12 games, including five goals. He’s second on the team in shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (15.48). He has three winning goals in the playoffs, including critical tallies in Game 2 against Boston and Game 1 against Toronto. He has a ways to go before catching Tkachuk, but he could be in the conversation if the Panthers keep rolling.

Still work to do

The Hurricanes goalie returned from illness in Game 6 against the Islanders, and has gone 5-0 since. He was pulled in Game 3 against the Devils; otherwise, he has allowed only one goal in four games and just two in the Hurricanes’ elimination game against New Jersey.

Both of these Knights finished the second round in style. Marchessault had five goals and three assists in Vegas’ last three wins against Edmonton, including the game winners in Games 3 and 6. Hill took over for the injured Laurent Brossoit in Game 3 against the Oilers and stopped 24 of 24 shots. He held his own for the rest of the series, playing his best game — a 38-save effort — in their Game 6 elimination of the Oilers.

Oettinger, by his own admission, wasn’t great against the Kraken in the second round … until Game 7, when he backstopped a strong defensive effort by Dallas to win a goalie duel. He has a .903 save percentage for the playoffs, but there’s still time for him to get going. Two goals in 13 games for Robertson is absolutely a disappointment after he tallied 46 goals in the regular season. That said, he’s second on the Stars with 12 points, and there’s plenty of time to find the back of the net more often. Pavelski is second on Dallas with eight goals in eight games — four of them coming in a Game 1 loss to Seattle. He has been a difference-maker in the playoffs against Vegas before. He also owns the “old guy chasing a Stanley Cup” corner in these playoffs.

Oettinger: Stars can win the whole thing

Jake Oettinger likes his team’s chances against the Golden Knights after the Stars defeated the Kraken in Game 7.

Bennett earned some notice for his extracurricular play against the Maple Leafs. Montour’s point production slowed in that series, but his six goals in 12 games leads all playoff defensemen. If there’s one player who could break out here, it’s Reinhart. He has six goals in the playoffs, including the overtime game winner in Game 3 against the Leafs that really put Florida in the driver’s seat.