Big 12 college football preview, part 2: Oklahoma and Texas say goodbye

When Oklahoma and Texas leave the Big 12 for the SEC next year, it will obviously impact ticket sales for their soon-to-be former conference mates. The conference’s new media rights deal, though solid, doesn’t have quite the same ceiling as it would have with its longtime big dogs.

On the field, though, the conference has already moved on. Texas hasn’t made the Big 12 championship since 2018, and while OU enjoyed a late-2010s dynasty, winning six straight conference titles from 2015 to ’20, the Sooners have fallen short of the title game for two straight years. In the absence of either the Sooners or Longhorns, four different teams have taken part in two absolute classics — Baylor‘s 21-16, by-a-millimeter win over Oklahoma State in 2021 and Kansas State‘s overtime victory over TCU last December.

This could be the new normal: two teams using the kiss of the close-games god to prevail over loads of similarly talented (and monied) teams, then putting on a classic at Jerry World in Arlington, Texas. There are worse fates. But before the two blueblood programs leave, they’re going to try to lord over the Big 12 one last time. Texas and OU are both projected in the top 15 in both SP+ and FPI, and either or both could put together a gaudy record if they’re able to make peace with the aforementioned god of close games.

In games decided by more than one score last year (excluding their lopsided game against each other), the Horns and Sooners went a combined 11-1. That’s customary of good teams. But in one-score finishes? They were an incredible 2-10. The wackiness of their final Big 12 title race could come down to just how much they progress toward the mean in these games.

Last week we previewed the seven Big 12 teams that live outside of Oklahoma or Texas. Now let’s talk about the conference’s geographical heart.

Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 133 FBS teams. The previews will include 2022 breakdowns, 2023 previews and burning questions for each team.

Earlier previews: Conference USA, part 1 | Conference USA, part 2 | MAC East | MAC West | MWC Mountain | MWC West | Sun Belt West | Sun Belt East | AAC, part 1 | AAC, part 2 | Independents | ACC, part 1 | ACC, part 2 | Pac-12, part 1 | Pac-12, part 2 | Big 12, part 1

2022 recap

If someone’s losing close games, someone else is winning them. TCU and Texas Tech went a combined 10-1 in one-score finishes; Sonny Dykes’ Horned Frogs combined this good fortune with loads of upside and reached the College Football Playoff National Championship, while Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders rode four tight wins (and a truckload of fourth-down conversions) to a surprising 8-5 campaign.

Baylor tried to use fourth downs to great effect, too, but didn’t benefit as much and fell from Big 12 champ to 6-7, while 2021 runner-up OSU started strong before cratering due to injuries and QB issues and finishing 7-6. And after a rousing 12-2 surge in 2021, conference newcomer Houston finished its stay in the AAC with a bit of a dud: Projected 32nd in SP+, the Cougars finished just 53rd due to dreadful defense and needed five tight wins to eke out an 8-5 record.

2023 projections

Teams in this week’s preview are in bold.

From a projections standpoint, this seems like a three-team race: Texas, Oklahoma and … someone else. Could be TCU or Kansas State again. Might be Oklahoma State or Baylor. Maybe UCF. Maybe McGuire’s gunslingers in Lubbock. But if OU and Texas are the close-game kings in 2023, we might not have much of a race at all.

Burning questions

Is Texas back? (For real this time?) Ah, where does time go? It’s already been almost five years since Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger, celebrating after a Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia, said “We’re baaaaaack” to Holly Rowe and the nation. After just one ranked finish in the eight years after losing the 2009 BCS championship, Tom Herman’s Horns finished 10-4 and ninth in the AP poll. This felt like a turning point.

It was. For Georgia. The Dawgs have since gone 49-5 with two national titles; Texas has gone just 28-20. After two solid but unspectacular seasons, Herman was fired. Replacement Steve Sarkisian has gone just 13-12.

Texas is indeed not yet back. But 2022 was still a step forward. Texas went 6-0 in games with multiple-score differentials, enjoying wins of 55-14 over Kansas, 41-20 over Conference USA champ UTSA and, of course, 49-0 over a briefly spiraling OU. The Horns played three SP+ top-10 teams and got outscored by a margin of just 64-63. Breaking even with top-10 teams insinuates you are one; predictive ratings certainly thought so: Texas finished fifth in FPI and seventh in SP+. Per SP+ the offense improved from 36th to 18th, while the defense charged all the way from 106th to 15th.

If you were a top-10 team on paper, and you return your leading passer (Quinn Ewers), three leading receivers (led by Xavier Worthy), most of your offensive and defensive lines and a veteran-heavy secondary, then it would stand to reason you’ll probably start the next season in the top 10, too, huh?

The Horns have some legitimately impressive players in the trenches now, from sophomore left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. to 355-pound senior defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat. The secondary has a disruptive star in nickel Jahdae Barron. Cornerback depth could be an issue, but dominant play up front (and some injury luck) can paper over cracks like that.

It’s a glass-half-full situation on offense, especially in the skill corps. Veteran receivers Worthy and Jordan Whittington and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders all return, and Wyoming transfer Isaiah Neyor is a big-play threat if he is 100% fit after last year’s preseason knee injury. There is a Bijan Robinson-sized hole to fill at running back, but that’s generally an easier position for finding replacements, and youngsters like Jonathan Brooks and freshman Cedric Baxter Jr. have loads of potential.

So why were the Horns so bad in close games last year? Their turnover luck wasn’t particularly bad. Their offense was decent on fourth down. Their special teams unit wasn’t amazing but wasn’t a liability.

Considering they had Robinson, though, they were awfully mediocre in the red zone (65th in red zone TD rate), and the defense had a nightmare season on fourth downs (87th in conversion rate, 115th in points allowed after conversion). And while Ewers had plenty of good moments, he ranked 97th in raw QBR in the fourth quarter and 104th on third downs. Texas outscored opponents by 179 points in the first three quarters but was outscored by 12 in the fourth quarter and OT. In theory, the weaknesses were far enough out of character — good on most plays, bad in very important and specific ones — that they could be fixable. But we’re five years past “We’re back,” and both Sarkisian and Texas bear the burden of proof. So does Ewers; if he continues to falter at the wrong times, the buzz for replacing one former all-world recruit with another (freshman backup Arch Manning) will get louder and louder.

Does Oklahoma have the depth? Texas did at least win a couple of close games. OU, on the other hand, played in five one-score finishes and lost them all. Some of that was forgivable: The Sooners played well in a 35-32 bowl loss to Florida State, and hey, who hasn’t gotten sucked into a track meet in Lubbock (51-48 to Texas Tech)? But tight home losses to Kansas State and Baylor and a 23-20 loss at WVU? Less forgivable for a team that had finished in the SP+ top 10 for seven straight seasons.

Head coach Lincoln Riley left for USC and took future Heisman winner Caleb Williams with him, and while OU’s drop to 20th in SP+ was semi-understandable — especially considering how dreadful the Sooners briefly were in the one and a half games that quarterback Dillon Gabriel missed — they still should have won eight games or so. Instead, they suffered their first losing season in 24 years.

It didn’t impact recruiting. Brent Venables’ first full-year recruiting class ranked fourth in the nation, and he signed intriguing transfers like left tackle Walter Rouse (Stanford), defensive ends Trace Ford (Oklahoma State) and Rondell Bothroyd (Wake Forest), and linebacker Dasan McCullough (Indiana). Gabriel returns after throwing for 3,168 yards and 25 TDs, and while there’s been turnover in the skill corps, players like sophomore running back Jovantae Barnes and receiver Jalil Farooq seem capable of big things, and there are plenty of recent blue-chippers to fight for touches. Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has now been part of good offenses at OU, Ole Miss, UCF and Baylor, and in blue-chip freshman Jackson Arnold, he has a much more high-upside backup QB this time around if Gabriel gets hurt again.

Defense was far more of a sustained issue. That was surprising if you consider how successful Venables was as a defensive coordinator at Clemson and OU, but it wasn’t much of a shock for anyone who has seen OU play defense in recent years: The Sooners have enjoyed exactly one top-50 defensive SP+ finish in seven years. The secondary was aggressive and fun, but the run defense lacked any sort of push.

That’s not guaranteed to change in 2023. Senior Isaiah Coe and Tennessee transfer Da’Jon Terry are potentially the only 300-pounders for the rotation. The edge talent is exciting, but you need pure size, too.

McCullough and incumbent Danny Stutsman should be strong at linebacker, but the aforementioned fun secondary lost five of its eight players with 300-plus snaps. There are loads of well-touted freshmen coming in, but you don’t want to rely on freshmen if you have conference title aspirations.

Do the Sooners have such aspirations? SP+ is optimistic, but this feels like a second transition year in Norman. In terms of known entities, OU is thinner than preferred in the skill corps, on the offensive line and perhaps everywhere on defense besides defensive end. If recruiting doesn’t suffer with another less-than-elite year, OU should hit the SEC with solid depth and upside in 2024. But the Sooners are not there quite yet.

Regression’s coming to Fort Worth, but how much? You did it all wrong, Sonny Dykes. You want your first year in a new job to be a pleasant surprise, but you also want to leave room for growth. Don’t set the bar too high, you know?

Safe to say, “13 wins, a No. 2 finish and both the program’s and Big 12’s first CFP victory” might qualify as setting the bar too high. TCU leaped from 79th to eighth in SP+, mastered the art of making the right play at the right time and beat Michigan in a Fiesta Bowl thriller. Granted, the national title game went horribly, but that’s beside the point — the Frogs made the national title game! Dykes made the most of what he inherited from Gary Patterson (which was far from an empty cupboard), made some astute hires and transfer portal additions and even unleashed the Hypnotoad onto the world.

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— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) October 21, 2022

That’s a good year right there.

Now comes some sort of fall. TCU will take the field in 2023 without quarterback Max Duggan, its top two backs, its top three receivers, a pair of all-conference offensive linemen and Clemson-bound offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. The best players in every level of the defense, from the line (end Dylan Horton) to linebacker (Dee Winters) to the secondary (corner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson) are gone, too.

Dykes has done nice portal work again, adding a load of former blue-chippers — Alabama running back Trey Sanders, Alabama tackle Tommy Brockermeyer and receivers Dylan Wright (Minnesota), Jack Bech (LSU) and Jojo Earle (Alabama) — to the offensive depth chart. He also made what will likely be a successful (and, for obvious reasons, controversial) coordinator hire, bringing Kendal Briles back to the Big 12 from Arkansas. Quarterback Chandler Morris beat out Duggan to start 2022 but got hurt and watched Duggan damn near win the Heisman; if he’s indeed Duggan-level or better, TCU will score lots of points.

I’m worried about the defense, though. The Frogs indeed lost some stars and are replacing four of their top seven on the line, and Dykes didn’t add nearly as many defensive transfers. There are still some excellent players — corner Josh Newton, safety Mark Perry, linebackers Jamoi Hodge and Johnny Hodges, a dynamite tackle duo in Damonic Williams and Tymon Mitchell — but TCU allowed 28 or more points in 60% of its games last year and ranked 52nd in defensive SP+. It’s hard to see those numbers improving much.

Improving on 2022 will be virtually impossible, but TCU is still projected 20th in SP+. The Frogs won’t need too many breaks to challenge in the Big 12, and the schedule should allow for a nice start. But they’re projected underdogs in three of their last five games; we’ll see if they have the depth required to pull some more late-year surprises.

Which of 2021’s darlings is more ready for a rebound? In games that weren’t against each other, Baylor and Oklahoma State went 22-2 in 2021. They played in a Big 12 championship thriller, they beat Ole Miss and Notre Dame in New Year’s Six bowls, and they finished fifth and seventh, respectively, in the year-end AP poll. It was a brilliant step forward for BU in Dave Aranda’s second season (especially after a 2-7 debut), and after settling into a seven- to eight-win rut for three years, it was another great surge for OSU’s Mike Gundy during what is now an 18-year, 156-win tenure in Stillwater.

In 2022 came the reckoning. Both teams lost difference-makers and failed to come up with good answers to known depth issues (receiving corps and secondary for BU, quarterback and secondary for OSU). Both teams crumbled late — Baylor lost its last four games, and OSU lost five of its last six. From a combined 24-4, they fell to 13-13. And now both have just enough new variables to make them Big 12 wild cards.

Baylor has a lot to replace in the trenches: Seven offensive linemen started at least four games, and only one returns, and while last year’s top two defensive linemen are back, the next five (in terms of snap counts) are not. Transfers should help — BYU guard Clark Barrington and Utah State defensive end Byron Vaughns could be immediate starters — but depth is an obvious concern. That’s doubly true in a secondary that, for the second straight year, is replacing five of its top seven guys. New defensive coordinator Matt Powledge, a co-coordinator at Oregon last year after two seasons with Aranda in Waco, should like his linebackers and ends, but there are plenty of new question marks for a unit that fell from third to 62nd in defensive SP+.

Even with turnover up front, there’s more to like on offense. Quarterback Blake Shapen returns after a decent but uneven first season as starter (2,790 yards, 18 TDs, 73rd in Total QBR). He’ll have a much more experienced skill corps at his disposal, led by sophomore running back Richard Reese and high-end junior slot man Monaray Baldwin. Oklahoma State transfer Dominic Richardson should be a nice complement in the run game, too. If the line isn’t a hindrance, the offense will be solid.

OSU’s biggest question mark might come at the most important position. Quarterback Spencer Sanders transferred to Ole Miss, and journeyman Alan Bowman is the likely starter. He threw for 2,638 yards as a Texas Tech freshman in 2018, missed much of the next two seasons with injury, then sat the bench for two years at Michigan. Obviously 2018 was quite a while ago, but if healthy he still probably has upside. He better because last year’s backups (four-star Garret Rangel and coach’s son Gunnar Gundy) certainly left something to be desired.

Between Michigan State transfer and four-star sophomore Ollie Gordon at running back and veteran Brennan Presley and transfers De’Zhaun Stribling (Washington State), Arland Bruce IV (Iowa) and Leon Johnson III (Division III’s George Fox) at receiver, the skill corps should be solid if unspectacular. The line has depth and experience. It’s all about the quarterback position for the Pokes.

OK, yes, it’s also all about the defense. Following a stumble from 11th to 64th in defensive SP+, Gundy pulled a very Gundy move, dipping into the small-school ranks to find new coordinator Bryan Nardo. The former Gannon University and Emporia State defensive coordinator will install a 3-3-5 defense that mixes solid veteran holdovers — edge rusher Collin Oliver, tackle Collin Clay, linebacker Xavier Benson — with mid-major transfers, a couple of jucos and an absolute star in sophomore safety Kendal Daniels.

I think I trust Baylor’s offense more and Oklahoma State’s defense more. SP+ likes BU a smidgen more than the Pokes (the Bears are projected 32nd, OSU 39th), but in missing both Texas and TCU, OSU’s conference schedule is friendlier. That, and better depth, could make the Pokes better bounce-back contenders.

Is the Texas Tech sleeper hype real? See, Sonny Dykes? Joey McGuire did it right. He did all the little things that will immediately endear you to a fan base — going for it all the time on fourth down, beating Texas, things like that — while still winning only eight games. Mind you, that was the Red Raiders’ best win total since 2013, and they pulled it off with a number of quarterback injuries (three different guys started at least four games). But it still left some room for growth. The Red Raiders played with next-man-up swagger, fielded a top-20 offense (per SP+, their first since 2018) and entertained.

They also ranked a Tech-esque 82nd in defensive SP+. Again: room for growth.

Injury-prone senior quarterback Tyler Shough gets another shot at stardom in 2023. In two seasons in Lubbock, he has thrown for 2,182 yards and 13 touchdowns, but he’s played in only 11 of 26 games. If he sticks, though, the offense is loaded: Nine other offensive starters return, a number that increases to 12 if you include two Western Kentucky starting linemen — center Rusty Staats and left tackle Cole Spencer (injured in 2022), both of whom played for current Tech coordinator Zach Kittley in 2021 — and Austin Peay‘s 1,000-yard receiver Drae McCray.

Kittley’s first season in town was a mixed bag. The (only marginally used) run game was solid, and the Red Raiders mastered timely play — first in fourth-down attempts and conversions, 38th in red zone touchdown rate — well enough to overcome the general inconsistency that comes with constant quarterback changes. Tech went fast and scored over 30 points eight times, and it’s easy to expect further improvement.

The defense boasts decent overall experience but has to replace some serious disruptors. Eight players made at least 4.5 tackles for loss last season, and only three return. Veteran coordinator Tim DeRuyter is good at fielding fast units and creating havoc, but he’ll have to find a lot of new playmakers, especially on the edge: First-round rush end Tyree Wilson (27.5 TFLs and 14 sacks in two years) was special.

When you’re a midlevel Big 12 team, you’re likely going to play in a ton of close games. SP+ projects seven Tech games within one score, in fact. Fourth-down conversions (and, yes, some timely breaks) allowed the Red Raiders to win all four one-score contests last year because of it, but improving on last year’s eight wins will require further execution and good breaks in this department. That might be a bit much to ask, but it’s definitely not hard to see Tech improving further on paper, at least.

How long will it take Houston to compete? Just like fellow Big 12 newbies Cincinnati and BYU, Houston stumbled last season, right before making its long-awaited power conference jump. Dana Holgorsen had gone just 7-13 in 2019-20 and entered 2021 under some pressure. A brilliant 12-2 campaign flipped the narrative all the way around before a frustrating 2022 muddied the water. Now comes a big transition.

In 2021, the major reason for overachievement was a Doug Belk defense that surged from 92nd to 33rd in defensive SP+. In 2022 the Coogs fell all the way back to 99th. Despite what seemed like solid continuity and decent disruption numbers, they were dreadfully inefficient (89th in success rate, 123rd in three-and-out rate) and gave up far too many chunk plays in the passing game to claim any sort of bend-don’t-break approach. They missed more tackles than just about anyone (124th in tackle success rate) and got gashed on third and fourth downs. They gave up at least 32 points seven times and gave up 77 to SMU.

There will be a lot of new faces on D in 2023. Of the 20 players with 200-plus snaps last year, 11 are gone, including by far the two best pass-rushers (ends D’Anthony Jones and Derek Parish) and the top four in the secondary. That’s a bad combination for a team that already couldn’t defend the pass. But former Oklahoma defensive end David Ugwoegbu could fill a pass-rushing void, ECU corner Malik Fleming is better than anything the Cougars had in 2022, and sophomore transfers like linebacker Aubrey Smith (Colorado) and safety AJ Haulcy (New Mexico) have potential.

The offense should be fine. That’s weird to say considering Houston has to replace a 4,000-yard passer (Clayton Tune) and an almost 1,400-yard receiver (Tank Dell), but Holgorsen brought in Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith, West Virginia running back Tony Mathis Jr., three pass-catchers (including big-play Oklahoma State sophomore Stephon Johnson Jr.) and four offensive linemen. They’ll team up with known(ish) entities like sophomore backs Brandon Campbell and Stacy Sneed, sophomore receivers Samuel Brown and Matthew Golden and a dynamite pair of linemen in Patrick Paul and Tyler Johnson. Smith or sophomore Lucas Coley has to thrive at QB, obviously, but Holgorsen’s got a track record in that department.

Their Big 12 debut could be tricky. After ranking 28th two years ago, the Coogs start 2023 at 53rd, 11th in the conference. Their schedule features two likely wins, six likely losses and four relative toss-ups that they might have to sweep to reach the postseason.

My 10 favorite players

QB Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma. Are you ready for Gabriel to finish No. 2 all-time in passing yards? He has two years of eligibility remaining thanks to a 2021 injury (and, of course, COVID-19 in 2020) and he’s already at 11,205 career yards. Two 13-game seasons would likely put him over 18,000 and behind only Case Keenum.

RB Richard Reese, Baylor. As a 175-pound true freshman, Reese combined physicality (14 TDs, 28% of carries gaining a first down) with some big-play pop (16% of his carries gaining 10-plus yards). Slap 15 more pounds on him, and watch him become a star.

WR Xavier Worthy, Texas. He played the back half of 2022 with a broken hand and dropped lots of passes. But he still finished the year with 760 yards and nine touchdowns and averaged a rock-solid 1.9 yards per route. He was at 2.6 in 2021 and could reach that again.

LT Patrick Paul, Houston. A first-team All-AAC selection (and captain!) as a sophomore, the 6-foot-7, 315-pound Houston native allowed just one sack, with a 1.5% blown block rate, in 2022. Immediately one of the Big 12’s better OLs.

LT Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas. As a true freshman — a true freshman! — the former top-40 recruit from Houston allowed just one sack, committed just two penalties and earned second-team all-conference status.

DE Ethan Downs, Oklahoma. First of all, he’s from my hometown (Weatherford, Oklahoma). You get bonus points for that. Second, he emerged with 13.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks and nine run stops in his first full season of action. He could be even better this year.

DT Tony Bradford Jr., Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have playmakers to replace, but they’ve got excellent heft up front, led by the 305-pound Bradford. He was third on the team in TFLs (10.5) and second in sacks (5.5). Good work for a 300-pounder.

LB Jamoi Hodge, TCU. The Winston-Salem, North Carolina, native finished first on the team in run stops (17) and third in TFLs (9) and sacks (4.5). TCU has a lot of stars to replace, but Hodge should remain an anchor in the middle.

S Kendal Daniels, Oklahoma State. As a freshman blue-chipper, Daniels combined a linebacker’s disruption (six TFLs, 13 run stops) with corner-worthy coverage numbers (three INTs, five breakups, 37.4 QBR allowed). How good will he be now that he knows what he’s doing??

CB Josh Newton, TCU. A transfer from ULM, Newton was an immediate anchor, picking off three passes, breaking up 10 more and allowing just a 22.7 QBR as primary coverage guy. TCU has to replace Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson but still has an excellent No. 1 CB.

Anniversaries

In 1988, 35 years ago, Barry Sanders happened. No biggie, just the greatest running back season of all time.

Also in 1988, Andre Ware took over in Houston. Jack Pardee’s Cougars had gone just 4-6-1 in 1987, with three QBs throwing at least 68 passes. David Dacus began 1988 as the starter, but Ware took over down the stretch, starting the last eight games and throwing for 2,507 yards and 25 TDs. Houston finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak and bowled for the first time in four years.

That was fun, but we still had no idea what was coming next: Over the next two seasons, with Houston on NCAA probation and banned from TV, Ware would throw for 9,839 yards and 100 touchdowns, winning the 1989 Heisman and leading the Coogs to a 19-3 record.

In 1998, 25 years ago, Dennis Franchione took over at TCU. A proven program builder at the NAIA (Southwestern College), Division II (alma mater Pittsburg State) and FCS (Southwest Texas State) levels, Franchione had spent the previous six seasons flipping New Mexico from 3-8 to 9-4. (He had some help from a defensive coordinator named Gary Patterson.)

With the building job complete in Albuquerque, Franchione set his sights on a different WAC makeover, taking over a moribund TCU program. The Horned Frogs had enjoyed just three winning seasons in 26 years and had missed out on a Big 12 invitation because of it. They were 1-10 in 1997, but they immediately jumped to 7-5, with a Sun Bowl win, in Franchione’s (and Patterson’s) first year in town. Led by 2,100-yard rusher LaDainian Tomlinson, they would go 10-2 two years later, and Franchione would leave to take the Alabama job. The Patterson statue outside of Amon G. Carter Stadium suggests that he did pretty well as a successor.

In 2008, 15 years ago, Texas Tech ran four verts. It ruled.

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On this date: Crabtree’s clutch catch wins game for Texas Tech

On Nov. 1, 2008, Michael Crabtree catches a touchdown pass in the final seconds to win the game for Texas Tech over Texas.

Also in 2008, the math liked Oklahoma more. After a wild 2007 season, college football’s balance of power coalesced again in 2008. Oklahoma and Texas went a combined 23-2 in the regular season. Texas beat the Sooners, 45-35, in a head-to-head classic, but Tech’s upset win above opened the door for OU (especially after it beat Tech by 44 points), and despite heavy politicking from UT’s Mack Brown, the Sooners got the edge in the BCS rankings. They beat Missouri in the Big 12 championship and advanced to play (and lose to) Florida in the BCS championship. Texas settled for beating Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl and joined USC and Utah in really, really wishing the CFP had come into existence more quickly than it did.

Also in 2008, RG3 came to Waco. By 2008, Baylor was as hopeless a program as TCU had been a decade earlier, averaging just 2.8 wins over the previous 11 years. But as a true freshman in Art Briles’ offense, Robert Griffin III threw for 2,091 yards and rushed for 843, and only an 0-3 record in one-score games kept the Bears from bowling immediately.

Griffin would miss most of 2009 with a knee injury, but in 2010-11, he would throw for 7,794 yards and 59 TDs, rush for 1,334 yards and 18 more scores, lead Baylor to a pair of bowls and a top-15 finish and win the 2011 Heisman.

In 2018, five years ago, Texas was indeed back.

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Texas’ Ehlinger decrees ‘we’re back’ after Sugar Bowl win

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger discusses beating Georgia in the Sugar Bowl before riling up the crowd with a short message about the Longhorns’ future.

Maybe it’ll stick next time.