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Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst
Who is going No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL draft? The early favorites are a pair of quarterbacks, but a lot can change in nine months. Let’s predict which top prospect will ultimately be first off the board next April.
The race looks similar to the 2023 class, with QBs leading the way. Bryce Young ended up becoming the 17th signal-caller to be selected first overall since 2000 when the Panthers took him after trading up to the top spot ahead of the draft. Quarterback has indeed dominated the top of the draft, but defensive end (five) and offensive tackle (two) have also produced No. 1 selections over the past 25 classes. Those two positions have a few prospects who could get in the mix this year, too.
To get a sense of the 2024 race, let’s take a run through the most likely candidates to go No. 1, including why each could make the leap and a way-too-early projected percentage chance for each to land at the top of the board. We begin with the favorite.
Jump to a tier:
Serious contenders
Potential risers
Long shots
SERIOUS CONTENDERS
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 25%
Why he could be the top pick: Scouts were buzzing about Williams even before he became draft-eligible. He already has the production, highlight moments and mental makeup to get evaluators excited about his potential, so it’s no surprise he’s the favorite to be next April’s first overall pick.
Williams finished last season with 4,537 passing yards, 42 touchdown throws and only five interceptions, and I see the kind of talent level that can immediately change the trajectory of an NFL franchise. His ability to decipher and dissect defenses in the pocket stands out, and he has an explosive release. Plus, his wizardry in making plays outside of the pocket fits with what’s asked of QBs in today’s pro game. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has all of the tools and plays in Lincoln Riley’s system, which has produced eventual No. 1 overall picks Kyler Murray (2019) and Baker Mayfield (2018) — though a strong argument can be made that Williams is even more talented as a prospect.
Entering his third season as a starter, the 6-foot-1, 215-pound junior has monstrous expectations — and scouts will be watching to see if he can live up to the immense hype. Patrick Mahomes is already a common comparison for Williams, and there are definitely parallels in their playing styles. There are so many ways that they can cause problems for defenses.
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 20%
Why he could be the top pick: You’ll hear Maye and Williams mentioned together a lot throughout the season. Williams has the edge, but I’ve spoken with scouts who believe Maye could close the gap if Williams hits a rough patch at some point.
At 6-4 and 225 pounds, Maye is a strong-armed passer who can make all of the throws. During his first year as a starter, he managed 4,321 passing yards, 38 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He’s a three-level threat who can carve up defenses when given time. But he is most accurate on deep throws, so he must get better with his ball placement underneath. Maye is also an underrated runner, showing the creativity to make defenses respect him on the ground. He ran for 698 yards and seven TDs last season.
1:59
Drake Maye’s best plays of the season
Relive Drake Maye’s best touchdowns from this season with the Tar Heels.
Player comparisons have been all over the place for him. Scouts likened him to Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert in conversations over the summer. And like Williams, the reigning ACC Offensive Player of the Year (and ACC Rookie of the Year) enters the 2023 season with heightened expectations. All eyes will be on the Week 1 matchup against South Carolina. Maye has a chance to make a statement there in his first outing in new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey’s system.
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 13%
Why he could be the top pick: A lot of scouts say Fashanu was going to enter the 2023 draft, and the consensus opinion is that he would’ve been the first offensive tackle off of the board. But he returned for his junior year and is still only 20 years old, making him a strong contender to be the first non-QB off the board in 2024 — potentially even at No. 1 overall. Ki-Jana Carter (1995) and Courtney Brown (2000) are the only two Penn State players to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick in program history, and no offensive lineman has gone first overall since Eric Fisher in 2013. But Fashanu has the skill set to be next in line.
At 6-6 and 319 pounds, he has a great combination of power, lower-body balance and foot quickness to help mirror and match pass-rushers. And he also shows a mean streak in the run game. Fashanu has only started nine games over two seasons, but he hasn’t allowed any sacks and blew just one run block over 601 snaps at left tackle.
“He’s [Laremy] Tunsil all over again,” said an NFC scout. “That’s the player I saw after watching him on tape.”
Quarterbacks understandably dominate the top of the draft board going into the season, but if a team that currently has a young signal-caller lands the No. 1 selection and can’t move down the board, Fashanu would likely be in consideration.
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 12%
Why he could be the top pick: A transfer from FCS-level Albany, Verse quickly became the centerpiece of the Florida State defense in 2022. During his first season in Tallahassee, he created pressure on 17.1% of his defensive snaps and recorded 16.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks. And along with Fashanu, Verse surprised in opting to return to school for another season. He was seen as someone who could go in the top half of Round 1.
Verse has heavy hands as a run defender, and he’s capable of cornering and finishing as a pass-rusher. And at 6-4 and 253 pounds, he’s long and physical. In short, he has a complete game. Corey Simon (2000) and Jamal Reynolds (2001) were the last two Florida State defensive linemen to be drafted in the top 10, and but if Verse takes his game to another level this year, he’ll be right there.
POTENTIAL RISERS
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 10%
Why he could be the top pick: Alt is a linear-built blocker at 6-8 and 315 pounds, and he has 21 career starts — all at left tackle. With quick feet, he’s an easy mover with well-above-average short-area mobility. Alt is often asked to quickly set out of his stance, and his length makes it challenging for defenders to win cleanly around his frame. He shows the strong hands to latch on and finish. Alt allowed just one sack over 865 snaps last season.
As a former tight end, Alt is still a work-in-progress in many areas. He still needs to continue to gain core strength and display more consistency as a run-blocker. His scouting report is essentially a copy and paste of Vikings offensive tackle Brian O’Neill‘s evaluation when he was coming out of Pitt. But with even more upside than O’Neill, Alt could go high in the draft because the NFL hasn’t been shy about betting on polished pass protectors in recent years. With some coaching and improved body maturity over time, he has the potential to quickly be an offensive building block.
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 10%
Why he could be the top pick: If we’re gauging this year’s quarterback class based strictly on talent, Ewers would be near the top. A heralded prospect coming out of high school, he originally chose Ohio State before landing with the Longhorns. And despite an inconsistent first season as a starter, there are big expectations for the redshirt sophomore heading into Year 2 under coach Steve Sarkisian, who helped develop Tua Tagovailoa (2020) and Mac Jones (2021) into first-round selections.
The 6-2, 195-pounder threw for 2,177 yards, 15 touchdown passes and six interceptions in 2022. Ewers has an effortless throwing motion but needs to develop a rhythm between his upper and lower body. There are mixed opinions about his next-level projection because of last season’s inconsistency, but the talent is evident. A strong 2023 at the helm of one of the nation’s best offenses could completely change his draft stock outlook. Keep an eye on early-season matchups against Alabama, Baylor and Oklahoma.
LONG SHOTS
The ‘out of nowhere’ quarterback
Predicted combined chance of going No. 1 overall: 7%
Why one of them could be the top pick: From Joe Burrow to Zach Wilson, there always seems to be a quarterback who bursts onto the scene to make things interesting at the top of the draft. Last year, it was Anthony Richardson, who some believed was in the running to be the No. 1 overall pick but ended up as the fourth-overall selection. This year, there are once again a handful of candidates to make a significant rise up boards, and I opted to group a few of them together here.
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J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (2% chance to go No. 1): He is expected to throw the ball more this season after just six games with 25 or more passing attempts over 13 starts in 2022. He reads the field well, is an accurate passer and shows efficiency with play-action concepts to complement the Wolverines’ run game.
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Bo Nix, Oregon (2%): Nix has completely transformed his game since transferring from Auburn. His decisiveness in the underneath areas stands out, and I see good rhythm and timing on quick-game passes.
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Michael Penix Jr., Washington (1%): Penix has a rocket arm, and his 59 pass completions for 20-plus yards ranked eighth in the FBS last season. He has outstanding eye discipline in reading the defense and getting through progressions, and I like the way he looks off defenders.
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Riley Leonard, Duke (1%): He is quick-footed as a dual-threat QB who can make defenders pay with both his arm and legs. His 699 rushing yards ranked fifth among quarterbacks last season, and only Nix had more rushing TDs than his 13.
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Joe Milton III, Tennessee (1%): Milton has ridiculous physical traits, including seemingly unlimited arm strength. But his accuracy must get better in order to play at the next level.
1:39
The best of J.J. McCarthy’s 2022-23 season
Check out some of the best touchdowns thrown by Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: A wide receiver? Yeah, we haven’t seen a wideout selected No. 1 overall since the Jets took Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. But talent-wise, Harrison is a blue-chip player with immediate star potential. At 6-4, 205 pounds, he’s a big wideout with the movement skills of a small receiver. Harrison is a rangy target with rare body control at the catch point, and his route-running nuance and ability to get in and out of cuts with ease are traits that make him special.
Last season, he finished with 1,263 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, making him the first-ever receiver in program history to earn unanimous All-American honors. Opinions around the league are understandably very high.
“I really liked Ja’Marr Chase coming out, but this dude is another-level good because he’s so much bigger. The best defense in the country [Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinals] didn’t even have an answer for him before he got hurt,” said an AFC scout.
Despite an impressive lineage of productive wide receivers, the Buckeyes have never had a pass-catcher selected in the top five picks. In fact, Terry Glenn (seventh overall in 1996) is Ohio State’s highest drafted wideout. But with another standout season, Harrison should best that mark and could even be in the hunt to go No. 1.
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Turner follows Will Anderson Jr. as the next man up in a long line of Crimson Tide defensive linemen. A toolsy defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid, he has the traits to quickly ascend the draft board — but he is still very raw.
Turner had 8.5 sacks as a true freshman in 2021, but he managed only four as a sophomore. He’s still working to become consistent as a pass-rusher; his speed to race past blockers is evident, but the details of how to strategically defeat blockers remains a work in progress. Turner is expected to take over Anderson’s role and should be in a favorable situation to put up significant numbers.
Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Fashanu and Alt will be the headliners of what looks to be a strong offensive tackle class, but don’t discount Latham. With high levels of functional strength and physicality, he is a bruising offensive tackle prospect who leaves a dent in defensive linemen when he initiates contact.
Latham is similar to former Bama lineman Evan Neal in stature at 6-6 and 335 pounds, but he has better balance and is a more natural pass-protector. He has solely played right guard and right tackle throughout his career, and there are questions whether he will transition to the left side or remain at right tackle — where he had 13 starts last year. Regardless of where he lines up in 2023, his name is a worthy mention at the top of the OT class. Latham has allowed only one sack in his career, but he needs to reduce his penalties after taking 11 last season.