Jake Paul returns to the ring on Saturday for the first time since suffering the first loss of his boxing career, a split decision against Tommy Fury back in February. That was Paul’s first fight against a conventional boxer. Before that, he had victories over former UFC fighters Anderson Silva, Tyron Woodley and Ben Askren, as well as wins against former NBA player Nate Robinson and social media personality Ali Eson Gib.
Paul (6-1, 4 KOs), the YouTuber-turned-boxer, is going back to basics and will fight another former UFC fighter in Nate Diaz.
Diaz is making his professional boxing debut, but during his UFC career he trained and sparred with former two-division champion Andre Ward, who retired with an undefeated record and was inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame as part of the class of 2021. Diaz’s boxing skills are superb and he’s a southpaw.
Can Paul recover from the loss? Is his powerful right hand enough to overcome Diaz’s relentlessness and toughness? What should he be looking for against Diaz? And can Diaz avoid Paul’s power and take the fight to the end?
Two-division champion, member of the IBHOF and current ESPN boxing analyst Timothy Bradley Jr. breaks down the matchup and picks the winner.
Can Jake Paul eliminate self-doubt after his first loss? What have we learned after his loss to Tommy Fury?
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Paul: This is a do-or-die fight for me and Diaz
Jake Paul speaks in the news conference ahead of the boxing grudge fight against UFC star Nate Diaz in Dallas.
Following a first defeat in the boxing ring, a fighter often experiences a profound impact on their self-belief and confidence, mostly because of losing their unbeaten record. This setback can lead to a reassessment of their abilities and the way they approach future fights. It is fair to acknowledge that even with extraordinary dedication, perfect training and flawless technique, a boxer can still fall short.
Boxing is one of the most grueling sports, demanding total commitment from individuals who pursue its rigorous physical, mental and emotional demands. Paul has to understand a fighter needs to have a professional and objective mindset when evaluating their performance. Rather than solely attributing the defeat to personal shortcomings, Paul and his team needed to assess their strategy, identifying areas for improvement and growth.
So what did we learn from Paul’s loss to Fury? We learned that although Paul has developed some skills, he is a one-dimensional fighter depending solely on his punching power.
Therefore, taking this bout against Diaz is not surprising. This represents a strategically diverted plan to avoid facing a traditional boxer in his return — a decision aimed at rebuilding Paul’s confidence and captivating once again his massive fanbase, while seizing a lucrative opportunity against a popular name in combat sports.
We also learned that Paul isn’t ready for traditional boxers, and he needs an opponent willing to stand directly in front of him for him to succeed. This was evident against the fleet-footed Fury, who boxed well, moved and defeated Paul.
In boxing, the adage “styles make fights” holds significant truth, and the clash between Paul and Diaz exemplifies this principle. Paul possesses an aggressive fighting style with devastating punching power in his right hand. Diaz’s approach embodies a southpaw stance, intelligent pressure, guts and unwavering will to win. He is a fighter through and through, an MMA-style boxer who is willing to go out on the shield with dignity.
Can Nate Diaz actually box?
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Nate Diaz talks promotion beef with Jake Paul ahead of boxing match
Nate Diaz responds to Jake Paul’s criticisms about his efforts to promote their boxing match.
Certainly. Diaz possesses boxing skills that have contributed significantly to his success as an MMA fighter. While primarily recognized for his accomplishments in mixed martial arts, Diaz’s profound understanding of boxing is widely respected within the combat sports realm.
As a southpaw, he demonstrates a pure comprehension of boxing fundamentals, showcasing strategic footwork, positioning, head movement and effective use of unorthodox punching techniques. Diaz employs high punch volume attacks, knows how to set traps for precise counters and exhibits solid proficiency in engaging, exchanging and neutralizing close-quarters encounters with pinning techniques to subdue his opposition’s offense.
Diaz’s innovative boxing prowess and knowledge surely come from training with and being around one of the greatest fighters of his generation, Andre Ward, which improved his overall fighting style.
And Diaz’s endurance and ability to absorb punishment are remarkable. Those traits have allowed him to persevere in high-profile fights. Conor McGregor was one of the victims of his unwavering resilience and mental fortitude in their first fight — a testament to his boxing capabilities and true fighting spirit.
How can Jake Paul win?
Paul can capitalize on his strengths by combining pressure, targeted bodywork and well-placed right-hand shots. Diaz tends to operate in a forward-moving fashion, often displaying vulnerabilities in his defense, particularly when evading headshots by pulling straight back. This presents an opportunity for Paul to exploit Diaz’s tendencies and land powerful punches to his face and body.
By applying nonstop pressure, Paul can disrupt Diaz’s positioning, opening avenues for continuous follow-up attacks. A sustained assault to the body would lower Diaz’s guard, allowing Paul to land his powerful right hand. Body shots will also gradually deplete Diaz’s energy and diminish the agility in his legs.
How can Nate Diaz win?
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Why Max calls Nate Diaz the perfect opponent for Jake Paul
Max Kellerman breaks down why Nate Diaz is the perfect opponent for Jake Paul.
To defeat Paul, Diaz must employ a strategic approach involving high-volume output, evading Paul’s right hand and effectively recognizing level changes. By initiating a relentless attack from the start, Diaz can force Paul into a defensive high guard, limiting his offensive capabilities.
Exploiting Paul’s lack of slip-counters and overall defensive skills, Diaz can use quick and well-timed sneak attacks while ensuring he avoids the big punches. A crucial aspect of defeating Paul lies in anticipating his level changes, as they often precede his right-hand strikes. Diaz should either use a drop, tuck and smother tactic or ensure he stays entirely out of range, avoiding Jake’s right hand at all costs.
X-factor
Stamina will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in determining the fight’s outcome. It is worth noting that Paul exhibited signs of fatigue during his encounter with Fury, highlighting a potential vulnerability in his endurance.
On the other hand, Diaz has not engaged in a 10-round boxing match, as his experience primarily stems from three- to five-round UFC battles. As the fight progresses, it is reasonable to expect Diaz’s energy levels to wane around the seventh or eighth round. Conversely, Paul is likely to possess superior energy management skills, given his prior experience in the boxing ring. And let’s not forget Paul is the bigger fighter and has more boxing experience compared to Diaz. These factors collectively contribute to an intriguing dynamic between the fighters and could significantly impact the outcome.
Who wins?
This matchup favors Paul, as Diaz’s style appears to align with Paul’s robotic and one-dimensional approach, at least on paper. Paul possesses more ring experience, dominates in physical attributes and gained valuable knowledge from his boxing bout against UFC legend Anderson Silva, a southpaw. Depending on what Diaz has left in terms of capabilities after a lengthy MMA career, Paul should have the upper hand and potentially secure a knockout victory.
It is generally expected that a faithful boxer would not lose to an MMA fighter inside the boxing ring, just as a skilled pugilist would struggle against an MMA fighter inside the cage. With all due respect, if Paul were to face defeat, it would be appropriate for him to retire from boxing because this would be a sure indication that he isn’t a real boxer.
Ian Parker’s best bet
In the UFC, Diaz is known for his submission skills along with his pressure style boxing and relentless pace. The question is, can he incorporate that style in the boxing ring against Paul, or will Paul’s power be too much for him.
Paul has made plenty of progress in his boxing skills and we can see he puts in the work. However, it doesn’t always translate in the ring, especially when his fights enter the later rounds. If Paul doesn’t get a knockout against Diaz within the first three or four rounds, there is a good chance Diaz will take over and pepper him with constant volume that could eventually tire Paul out.
I am having a hard time seeing Diaz struggle here, as he has fought very good strikers during his MMA career. And its not like Paul is a world class boxer. I taking a flyer here on Nate Diaz at +280 and for him to win in Round 9 at +8000.
We have seen Paul slow down tremendously after the first few rounds in his previous fights. Unlike his other opponents, Diaz will have the cardio to continue to press when he sees Paul starting to gas.
Prediction: Diaz to win (+280), and Diaz to win in Round 9 (+8000).