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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
This summer’s college football blockbuster movie has been a disaster flick. Major football in the West, as we’ve come to define it over the past 100 years, will cease to exist in 2024, with the Pac-12 disintegrating and eight of its members preparing to leave for either the Big Ten (Oregon, UCLA, USC, Washington) or Big 12 (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah) next summer.
This storyline will loom over everything that happens over this season; that would feel unfortunate under any circumstances, but it could feel particularly bittersweet considering how good football in the West might be in 2023. Five Pac-12 teams are ranked between No. 6 and No. 18 in this week’s preseason AFCA Coaches Poll, and teams from both the Pac-12 and Mountain West litter this year’s breakthroughs and bounce-backs list.
Each year, I take a look at the teams that enjoyed either huge surges or huge stumbles the year before and attempt to predict which teams will either sustain their gains or rebound with particular vigor. Last year, the former list included Tennessee (which ended up jumping from 7-6 to 11-2), Florida State (from 5-7 to 10-3) and teams that would win both the Big 12 (Kansas State) and Mountain West (Fresno State); meanwhile, the latter list included USC, Washington and North Carolina, which improved from a combined 14-23 to 31-10.
The final preseason SP+ projections are coming next week. But using last year’s numbers and general trends, we can begin piecing together the national picture. Which of last year’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are most likely to bounce back? Let’s take a look. Some are pretty obvious, some not so much. Prepare yourself for a lot of Pacific and Mountain time.
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Teams most likely to sustain 2022 gains
Looking at SP+ ratings from the decade of 2012 to 2021 (which you can find on this complete list), we see some pretty clear, semi-reliable trends. We know we’re going to get about two huge surges each season — not including 2014 UAB, which ditched football the following year, 21 teams in this sample improved by more than 20 adjusted points per game, per SP+ — and 19.5 teams enjoying excellent improvement (195 teams improved by at least 10 points).
We also know gravity will pull a lot of these teams back down to earth a bit.
• Of the 21 teams that improved by 20-plus points per game in one season, 14 of them (67%) saw their SP+ ratings regress the next year, five (23%) by more than a touchdown.
• Of the 194 non-UAB teams that improved by at least 10 points in one season, 120 (62%) regressed the next, 61 (31%) by more than a touchdown. Regression to the mean comes for us all at some point.
Of course, that does mean 38% of the big improvers actually managed to jump again the next season. In fact, 28 of the 194 teams above (14%) saw their ratings rise by at least another touchdown. Some of us defy gravity longer than others.
We saw a higher-than-normal number of teams enjoying big improvement in 2022. Three improved by at least 20 points (Duke, Kansas and TCU), while 20 improved by at least 10. On average, 12.4 of these teams will regress, but 7.6 will improve further. Using SP+ as a guide (but not the end-all, be-all), here’s my guess for the six teams most likely to sustain last year’s gains or improve even further.
USC
2021: 4-8 record, 72nd in SP+ (-0.3 adjusted PPG, or 0.3 points worse than the average college football team)
2022: 11-3, 29th (+12.1)
2023 projection (as of May): 9.7 average wins, seventh in SP+ (+23.6)
Lincoln Riley’s Trojans were the hardest team for SP+ to project last season, and they were also the easiest rebound candidate on the board. Adding soon-to-be Heisman winner Caleb Williams and reigning Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison to the roster, among quite a few other high-upside offensive pieces, assured USC of big-time improvement, even if a dreadful defense (87th in defensive SP+) still held them back.
Williams returns in 2023, and there’s really no reason to think the offense will be anything other than one of the two or three best in the country. If the Trojans indeed take another leap forward, it will be because of a defense that added much more high-level transfers than a year ago. There’s nothing saying that players like defensive tackle Bear Alexander (Georgia), defensive end Jack Sullivan (Purdue), linebacker Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State), cornerback Christian Roland-Wallace (Arizona) and others will turn Alex Grinch’s defense into something elite, but it doesn’t have to be.
If USC simply fields a top-40 or top-50 D, the Trojans are Pac-12 favorites and potential CFP contenders. There’s no guarantee they’ll clear that bar — this was a truly dismal unit — but odds are at least decent.
Florida State
2021: 5-7 record, 71st in SP+ (-0.1 adjusted PPG)
2022: 10-3, 26th (+12.7)
2023 projection: 9.3 average wins, 10th in SP+ (+21.6)
After going just 8-13 over Mike Norvell’s first two seasons, FSU won 10 games for the first time since 2016, improving pretty dramatically on both offense and defense. The Seminoles head into 2023 ranked third in returning production with both proven star power — quarterback and underdog Heisman contender Jordan Travis on offense, defensive end Jared Verse — and a new batch of fun transfers like receiver Keon Coleman (Michigan State), tackle Jeremiah Byers (UTEP) and cornerback Fentrell Cypress II (Virginia). ACC media named Clemson the conference favorite, but FSU’s an obvious No. 2 at worst.
It feels like the defense has a few more question marks heading into the fall — namely, whether experience and the addition of Cypress can fix a secondary that needs to make a few more disruptive plays, and whether returning star Fabian Lovett (injured for most of 2022) and a couple of big defensive tackle transfers (Western Michigan‘s Braden Fiske, Miami‘s Darrell Jackson Jr.) can shore up what was at times a poor run defense. But Norvell has proven to be one of the nation’s best at getting what he needs from the portal, and the newcomers will likely make a positive difference.
Washington
2021: 4-8 record, 76th in SP+ (-1.1 adjusted PPG)
2022: 11-2, 18th (+14.0)
2023 projection: 8.8 average wins, 17th in SP+ (+18.3)
Kalen DeBoer, an NAIA national champion and an offensive coordinator who actually brought points to Indiana for a bit, took over as Washington head coach last year and maybe improved his team even more than Lincoln Riley did. Granted, the Huskies had only briefly stumbled and were likely to improve no matter what, but with former Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throwing to 1,000-yard receivers Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze, the Huskies went from 107th to seventh in scoring offense in a single year. And aside from a bit of turnover on the line, most of the key offensive pieces return.
As with the two teams above, further improvement will require something more from the defense. The Huskies were 68th in defensive SP+ last season, their worst ranking in 11 years, and while they return plenty of potential stars like tackles Tuli Letuligasenoa and Faatui Tuitele and edge rushers Zion Tupuola-Fetui and Bralen Trice, they had those guys last year, too, and still struggled more than expected. Defensive co-coordinators William Inge and Chuck Morrell have something to prove; if the Huskies make a few more stops, they’re possible CFP contenders.
2021: 5-7 record, 42nd in SP+ (+7.9 adjusted PPG)
2022: 8-5, seventh (19.7)
2023 projection: 9.2 average wins, ninth (+23.3)
They nearly beat Bama. They beat conference champion Kansas State and won four games by at least three touchdowns. They also blew three leads (two by double digits) and lost five games by a total of 25 points.
The Longhorns were clearly good and clearly their own worst enemy in 2022. There’s no guaranteeing that will change moving forward, but with quarterback Quinn Ewers (the face of some of the “own worst enemy” moments) and a junior- and senior-heavy two-deep, the Longhorns certainly have both the experience and upside that you look for. The secondary could stand to get a little more aggressive — the additions of corner Gavin Holmes (Wake Forest) and safety Jalen Catalon (Arkansas) could help with that — and Ewers desperately needs to relax and improve in key moments (third downs, fourth quarters).
But while they were less than the sum of their parts, they still improved by three wins and 35 spots in SP+. Now they’re second in the Big 12 in returning production. That sure seems like a breakthrough candidate to me, even if it’s a team that has let down the preseason prognosticators a few times through the years.
Kansas
2021: 2-10 record, 121st in SP+ (-20.6 adjusted PPG)
2022: 6-7, 65th (+1.5)
2023 projection: 4.7 average wins, 61st (+0.9)
After winning just 23 games over the previous 12 seasons, Kansas surged under master culture builder Lance Leipold. The Jayhawks rode early-season brilliance from quarterback Jalon Daniels (2,014 passing yards and 452 non-sack rushing yards in nine starts) and running back Devin Neal (1,273 combined rushing and receiving yards) to a 5-0 start, blew out Oklahoma State to secure bowl eligibility, then lost an epic Liberty Bowl to Arkansas in overtime.
The offense leaped from 96th to 29th in offensive SP+ in 2022, but the defense ranked just 99th, allowing a grisly 46.4 points per game in seven losses. (When you score at least 27 points in 11 of 13 games and finish with a losing record, that’s rather telling.) Said defense is the reason SP+ sees Kansas as more of a “hold steady” team than a “surge further” candidate. But the secondary is disruptive, and Leipold aggressively added transfers like blue-chip end Dylan Brooks (Auburn) to the defensive front. If the defense takes even half the leap the offense did, KU will end up with its first winning record in 15 years.
2021: 3-9 record, 124th in SP+ (-23.5 adjusted PPG)
2022: 3-9, 101st (-11.4)
2023 projection: 5.1 average wins, 99th in SP+ (-11.2)
You’re forgiven if you didn’t really sense much improvement in Stan Drayton’s first year in charge. The Owls finished with the same record as in Rod Carey’s dismal final season, and their only wins came against FCS’ Lafayette and the teams ranked 131st (UMass) and 114th (South Florida) in SP+. But they overachieved projections by 13.1 points per game over the final month of the season, nearly beating eight-win Houston and East Carolina teams, and they improved by solid amounts on offense (from 123rd to 93rd), defense (111th to 97th) and special teams (126th to 85th). They’re currently 17th in returning production, and they’ve got one of the country’s more intriguing sophomore quarterbacks in E.J. Warner.
Warner was up and down as freshmen often are, but he was mostly “up” late in the year. Against USF, Houston and ECU in November he completed 72% of his passes for 1,357 yards and a 10-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. The Owls also scored more points in those three games (136) than in the other nine combined (127).
Warner’s the primary reason for optimism, but the defense also returns 10 of the 15 players with 300-plus snaps and should improve at least incrementally, too.
Teams most likely to rebound from a 2022 stumble
As always, if someone’s moving up, someone else is moving down. On average, about two teams per year regress by 20 or more adjusted points per game in SP+ (20 in the past 10 seasons), and about 18 regress by 10 or more (181 over 10 years). Of those 18, 68% of them rebound the next year (123 of 181) and 39% (70) improve by at least a touchdown. Granted, 32% of them also regress further, but the preseason is for optimism, so let’s not worry about that right now.
In 2022, one team regressed by more than 20 points in SP+ (Nevada), while 14 regressed by at least 10. That’s a smaller batch than normal, and it included both teams with high expectations (Texas A&M, Michigan State) and teams with no expectations whatsoever (Colorado, Colorado State).
On average, we should expect about 9.5 of those 14 stumblers to bounce back, 5.5 by quite a bit. Here are the most likely candidates.
Colorado
2021: 4-8 record, 88th in SP+ (-7.7 adjusted PPG)
2022: 1-11, 126th (-24.0)
2023 projection: 2.3 average wins, 103rd in SP+ (-12.6)
You had to figure the Buffaloes would lead this list. For one thing, the Buffaloes have almost nowhere to go but up after an appallingly bad performance last season. For another, new coach Deion Sanders has certainly upgraded talent levels pretty considerably while turning over nearly the entire roster this offseason.
SP+ is almost certainly underestimating the amount of improvement they will make but still projects their rating to rise by more than 11 points. Only Miami and UMass are projected to improve by more. The Buffaloes will still be alarmingly thin, especially at quarterback, on the offensive line and perhaps on the defensive line or in the secondary. A rough early schedule could tamp the win total down, too. Regardless, the Buffaloes are such an easy rebound pick that I almost felt like it was cheating to put them on the list. Almost.
Texas A&M
2021: 8-4 record, fifth in SP+ (+21.0 adjusted PPG)
2022: 5-7, 39th (+9.7)
2023 projection: 7.7 average wins, 16th in SP+ (+18.8)
Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies pulled off something awfully difficult over the past two years: They’ve started two straight seasons in the AP top 10 and finished both of them unranked. A top-ranked recruiting class helped to spur optimism that they would enjoy a quick rebound after slipping to 8-4 in 2021, but instead they slipped even further.
We aren’t expecting quite as much from A&M this year, but it is still projected to jump back into the top 20, and it sneaked into the preseason coaches poll at 25th as well.
Are we stepping on the same rake once more? Not if new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino knows what to do with quarterback Conner Weigman. The second-year blue-chipper has one of the SEC’s better receiving corps at his disposal, the offensive line almost can’t possibly suffer the same in-season attrition as last year and the defense has everything it needs to play at a top-15 or so level.
There’s solid “fool me twice, shame on me” potential here, but there’s obviously a lot to like, too.
2021: 6-6 record, 68th in SP+ (+0.3 adjusted PPG)
2022: 3-9, 106th (-13.1)
2023 projection: 5.4 average wins, 74th in SP+ (-4.2)
Almost everything that could go wrong for Jeff Hafley and BC last year did. The defense slipped after showing improvement in 2021, and the offense, which had slipped to 88th in offensive SP+ in 2021, fell even further after losing all-conference guard Christian Mahogany for the season and quarterback Phil Jurkovec for half of it. Jurkovec transferred, but there’s upside between sophomore QB Emmett Morehead and speedy UCF transfer Thomas Castellanos, and the line both returns Mahogany and welcomes all-Sun Belt guard Kyle Hergel (Texas State). The defensive front seven is experienced and disruptive, and while a shaky secondary is dealing with turnover, it’s got cornerback Elijah Jones and a trio of transfers.
I’m not going to pretend BC is a sleeper ACC contender or anything, but the Eagles are projected to improve by a decent amount and could jump even further if Hafley can keep his intended starting lineup on the field for more (or any!) of the season.
Arizona State
2021: 8-5 record, 96th in SP+ (+9.9 adjusted PPG)
2022: 3-9, 76th (-4.3)
2023 projection: 4.9 average wins, 63rd in SP+ (+0.2)
Deion Sanders’ transfer portal antics distracted us from the fact new ASU head coach Kenny Dillingham brought in over 30 transfers himself, including part- or full-time FBS starters like quarterback Drew Pyne (Notre Dame), receiver Jordyn Tyson (Colorado), Nevada tackle Aaron Frost, UNLV center Leif Fautanu, and Baylor cornerback Lorando Johnson. He also signed blue-chip quarterback Jaden Rashada after NIL drama with Florida, and either Pyne, Rashada or late-2022 starter Trenton Bourguet will have a solid receiving corps to work with.
ASU was a disorganized mess in Herm Edwards’ final season in charge — he was fired three games into a 3-9 campaign — and the Sun Devils will be quite the blank slate in 2023. But athleticism levels are pretty high, the bar for improvement is low and home games against the Southern Utah Thunderbirds, Fresno State, Colorado, Washington State and Arizona should create solid odds for improvement in the win total, too.
Colorado State
2021: 3-9 record, 90th in SP+ (-8.4 adjusted PPG)
2022: 3-9, 124th (-23.0)
2023 projection: 4.8 average wins, 118th in SP+ (-16.4)
Nevada
2021: 8-5 record, 52nd in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)
2022: 2-10, 118th (-18.0)
2023 projection: 4.9 average wins, 113th in SP+ (-15.4)
We’ll talk about the Rams and Wolf Pack at the same time because they were joined by a common thread in 2022: Jay Norvell. Norvell left Nevada for CSU, and both teams got much, much worse.
Nevada got wrecked by attrition — including quite a few Wolf Pack players following Norvell to Fort Collins — and replacement Ken Wilson, a longtime former Nevada defensive coordinator, couldn’t find any good answers. The defense got worse, and the offense imploded, scoring 102 points in the first three games but just 124 in the last nine.
With a lot of holes to fill, Wilson leaned heavily on the transfer portal and brought in former blue-chippers and high three-star recruits like quarterback Brendon Lewis (Colorado), running back Sean Dollars (Oregon), offensive lineman Jason Rodriguez (USC) and linebackers Adrian Jackson (Oregon) and Jackson LaDuke (Oregon). There’s little reason to think the Pack will improve by spectacular amounts, but it almost can’t get worse.
Nevada’s collapse was predictable; CSU’s was a bit more surprising. The defense wasn’t awful, but the offense was just about the worst in the country (130th in offensive SP+) despite both Norvell and coordinator Matt Mumme bringing pretty good offensive track records to the table. Despite the efforts of highly touted freshman quarterback Clay Millen and 1,100-yard receiver Tory Horton, the Rams failed to top 19 points all season and managed to lose twice while allowing 17 or fewer points. Horton and defensive end Mohamed Kamara give the Rams a pair of top-level stars few teams in the MWC can match, and Millen’s maturation should assure some level of improvement. But massive turnover on the offensive line and at linebacker could prevent an outright Rams surge.