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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The Hockey Hall of Fame welcomes its newest class on Monday night in Toronto with one of the most goalie-heavy groups ever to be inducted.
NHL netminders Henrik Lundqvist, Tom Barrasso and Mike Vernon all made the Hall of Fame. Center Pierre Turgeon joins them in this class, along with Canadian women’s hockey legend Caroline Ouellette, former NHL executive Pierre Lacroix and longtime head coach Ken Hitchcock.
Who will join them in the Class of 2024?
A lot of that depends on how the 18-member selection committee feels about current world events.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reverberated through the hockey world since February 2022. The International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) Council has banned Russia and Belarus from competition in the 2023-24 championship season. The NHL has faced challenges in planning another World Cup of Hockey, wanting Russian players to participate but not necessarily a Russian team.
The 2024 Hall of Fame field features Russian stars like Pavel Datsyuk and Ilya Kovalchuk as well as Alex Mogilny, one of the most hotly contested snubs in recent memory. A source told Rob Rossi of The Athletic in June not to expect Russian candidates to gain entry to the Hall of Fame any time soon. “It’s easier not to put in Russians right now,” the source said.
Will the “Russia Factor” determine how the selection committee picks the Class of 2024?
“Honestly, I’ve given up predicting what they’ll do,” said Paul Pidutti of Adjusted Hockey, which Pidutti founded to analyze NHL players’ Hall of Fame potential. “I think we’re all trying to figure out what their ideal candidate looks like. What characteristics they’re looking for. But as someone who’s looked at this as closely as anyone, there never really seems to be a pattern emerging.”
Here’s our ranking of candidates for next year’s Hockey Hall of Fame class, including their respective years of eligibility. We’ll give our best guess for the actual Class of 2024 at the end.
1. Pavel Datsyuk, center (first year)
It’s always wonderful to hear how a Hall of Fame-worthy player has influenced subsequent generations. Datsyuk is undoubtedly one of those players. Marco Rossi of the Minnesota Wild grew up idolizing him. Nico Hischier declared that he wanted to emulate his career. Leon Draisaitl watched hours of Datsyuk highlights to inform his own game.
Until Patrice Bergeron overshadowed him, Datsyuk was the most important defensive forward of this century, winning the Selke Trophy for three straight seasons (2007-08 to 2009-10) and finishing as a finalist in six seasons overall. You can see echoes of his puck-hounding takeaways in players today.
Offensively, Datsyuk was a magician, with 918 points in 953 games. He was a 97-point player in his peak scoring years. His stickhandling skills were other-worldly. Much of Datsyuk’s career was played during the shootout era, and his 41% conversion rate was one of the best. He was the “Magic Man,” to the point where Siri would respond “Pavel Datsyuk” when asked to identify who the “Magic Man” was.
He’s a Triple Gold Club member, winning the Stanley Cup twice with the Detroit Red Wings, the IIHF World Championship with Russia in 2012 and Olympic gold in the 2018 Pyeongchang Games as an “Olympic Athlete from Russia.”
For his achievements, his influence and his unbelievable talent, Datsyuk shouldn’t have to wait long for Hall of Fame induction — theoretically.
2. Alexander Mogilny, right wing (15th year)
Mogilny is uniquely positioned as a player who has the numbers and the championship achievement of other inductees while — most importantly — having played an integral role in one of hockey history’s seminal moments. His years-running snub by the Hall has earned annual callouts by fans and media.
Mogilny is 35th among inactive NHL players in points-per-game average (1.042), and nearly everyone ahead of him on that list is in the Hall of Fame. He’s 56th all-time in goals scored (473) and 58th in adjusted goals (480), which ties him with Hall of Famer Guy Lafleur. He’s 38th all-time in goals-per-game average (0.478). He’s 55th in offensive points share, which is Hockey Reference’s spin on wins above replacement. Every single eligible player ahead of him — save for one we’ll mention later — is in the Hall. All of that was achieved while he played the majority of his games in the defensive trap era.
He’s a Triple Gold Club member, having won the Stanley Cup in 2000 with the New Jersey Devils, 1988 Olympic gold and the 1989 IIHF World Championship with the Soviet Union.
It was after those world championships in Sweden that Mogilny became the first Soviet player to defect to North America in 1989. The door between the NHL and the Soviet Union was creaking open for past-their-prime veterans and national-team role players. But Mogilny was 20 years old and an absolute star. It was an important milestone in hockey history. It’s a story that needs to be told and retold. There’s no better way to ensure that than by enshrining Mogilny, among the many reasons to immortalize him.
3. Ilya Kovalchuk, left wing (first year)
Pidutti joked that for Kovalchuk to make the Hall of Fame, the selection committee is going to have to remember who he was first.
“No one’s really mentioned him in so long,” he said. “But I love his case. I think he played at the absolute wrong time for offense and on the worst teams.”
The first chapter of Kovalchuk’s hockey career was from 2001-02 through 2012-13, when he played 594 games with the Atlanta Thrashers and 222 games with the New Jersey Devils. In that span, he tallied 417 goals in 816 games, the most of any player. He ranked behind only Alex Ovechkin (0.62) in goals per game (0.51) for players who played at least 400 games in that span, tying him with Sidney Crosby.
He scored over 40 goals for six straight seasons, including over 50 goals twice, on some terrible Thrashers teams. Before he was traded to the Devils in 2010, leading them to the Stanley Cup Final in 2012, Kovalchuk had played just four postseason games in his career.
Chapter 2 was when he left New Jersey for the KHL, where he produced more than a point per game for St. Petersburg SKA. How much the selection committee values that league is anyone’s guess.
Then came Chapter 3, when Kovalchuk returned to the NHL for two journeyman years, playing for the Los Angeles Kings, Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals before returning to Russia.
He won IIHF World Championship gold twice (2008, 2009), world junior gold (2001) and Olympic gold at the 2018 Pyeongchang Games as an Olympic Athlete from Russia. If the selection committee values his international play and remembers his NHL dominance — albeit in the absence of team success — he belongs in the Hall.
4. Ryan Miller, goalie (first year)
One of the best arguments for Miller comes from his “peak years,” to which Pidutti gives a lot of credence.
“It’s easy to forget that for a while he had that invincibility vibe where everyone thought of him as perhaps the best goalie in the league,” he said.
From 2008-09 to 2011-12, Miller was third in wins (182) and fourth in save percentage (.919) while playing for a Buffalo Sabres team that was 21st in points percentage (.520). The apex of his career was 2009-10, when he won the Vezina Trophy, finished fourth for the Hart Trophy and became a superstar while backstopping Team USA to Olympic silver in Vancouver, losing gold in overtime to Sidney Crosby and the Canadians.
In that sense, he has a little bit of that Dominik Hasek argument: He was the best thing about some bad teams. Miller is 14th in career wins (391). Every player ahead of him who is eligible, save for Curtis Joseph and Chris Osgood, is already in the Hall.
5. Meghan Duggan, forward (third year)
Duggan won seven IIHF World Championship gold medals and captained the U.S. women’s Olympic hockey team to gold in the 2018 Pyeongchang Games. She won the 2011 Patty Kazmaier Memorial Award as the top women’s player in the NCAA while playing for Wisconsin.
Duggan was the first American men’s or women’s player to win seven consecutive world championship gold medals.
Off the ice, she played in integral role in the national team’s fight with USA Hockey over inequitable support and conditions in comparison to the men’s team. She’s currently director of player development for the New Jersey Devils.
Another name to consider here is Julie Chu, an iconic American player who captured 23 medals during her storied international career. But she has been waiting a while, having last played in the Canadian Women’s Hockey League in 2015.
6. Sergei Gonchar, defenseman (seventh year)
Pidutti believes that Gonchar has a very solid Hall of Fame case.
“He basically represents an entirely overlooked generation, so I think he’s the best defenseman not in the Hall of Fame,” he said.
Gonchar is 18th in career points among defensemen, with 811 in 1,301 NHL games. Everyone who is Hall of Fame eligible ahead of him — save for Gary Suter — is in the Hall.
That includes Nicklas Lidstrom, with whom Gonchar has the misfortune of sharing an era. The Detroit Red Wings Hall of Famer — considered one of the best defensemen in hockey history — is the only blueliner who amassed more goals (236) and points (985) than Gonchar did (220 goals, 811 points) from 1994-95 to 2014-15, which was the span of the Russian defenseman’s career. Lidstrom won the Norris seven times. Gonchar finished in the top five for the award four times, which is more than Hall of Famer Sergei Zubov, for comparison’s sake.
Gonchar won the Stanley Cup with Pittsburgh in 2009. He won Olympic silver in Nagano, bronze in Salt Lake City and world championship silver in 2010.
7. Henrik Zetterberg, center (third year)
The problem for Zetterberg is competition. He’s got Datsyuk in front of him in the queue for two-way forwards who happened to also be Red Wings legends. He’s got Rod Brind’Amour still out there, who has a lot of public support and something Zetterberg doesn’t have — two Selke wins.
Zetterberg finished his career with 960 points in 1,082 games, including 337 goals. His greatest individual accomplishment was winning the Conn Smythe in the Red Wings’ 2008 Stanley Cup win. That ring earned him Triple Gold Club status, going with championships in the 2006 Olympics and the 2006 IIHF World Championship with Sweden.
But if the decision is Zetterberg or Brind’Amour, Pidutti is Team Zetterberg.
“I think Brind’Amour has been a bit retroactively lionized because he’s the coolest guy in the room and an awesome coach,” he said. “He was never really a top Selke candidate. And then he’s pushing 40 and he was just this incredibly interesting, intense warrior. He wins those two Selkes … I don’t want to say out of the blue, but if you look at the voting history, they kind of were. I think everyone remembers him being the best defensive forward in the league, and really wasn’t the case during his entire career.”
8. Jennifer Botterill, forward (10th year)
Outside of the Hall’s apparent inability to induct two women in the same class, there’s no reason either Duggan or Botterill shouldn’t have joined Caroline Ouellette in the Class of 2023.
Botterill helped Team Canada win Olympic gold in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and five IIHF World Championships, capturing MVP in that tournament twice. But it was her dominance in the NCAA that sets her apart. Playing with Harvard, she amassed 319 points in 113 games, scoring at least a point in all but one of her college games. She was the first player to win the Patty Kazmaier Memorial Award twice. Botterill also had 155 points in 78 Canadian Women’s Hockey League games.
There are two spots available in the women’s category each year. The selection committee has inducted two women in the same class only once: in 2010, when Cammi Granato and Angela James were the first female inductees. That needs to change.
9. Shea Weber, defenseman (first year)
Weber never won a Norris Trophy during his 16-season NHL career, but boy was he a contender: second to Lidstrom in 2011 and second to Erik Karlsson in 2012. Overall, he was in the top five for the Norris five times during his career with the Nashville Predators and Montreal Canadiens, a career that was cut short in 2021 due to multiple lingering injuries.
Weber was never one of the league’s top offensive defensemen. His peaks were 23 goals and 56 points. But he played a ton (24:03 average time on ice) and was credited with being one of the league’s top physical defensemen.
“I think he’s a Hall of Famer,” Pidutti said. “He was at the top of the league for a really long time.”
His strongest case is international success, having played a significant role on Canada’s gold medal-winning Olympic teams in 2010 and 2014 and its World Cup team in 2016. He won world championship gold (2007) and world junior gold (2005) as well.
That said, Pidutti said he likes Gonchar’s case more than Weber’s.
“He doesn’t have the Norris votes, but when you sort of look at his performance in his own era, I’ve got all day for Gonchar,” he said. “He also had some pretty significant playoff impact, too.”
Keep in mind the Hall of Fame might want to fast-track a defenseman for 2024, considering who’s coming onto the ballot in 2025: Zdeno Chara and Duncan Keith, both expected to be first-ballot choices.
10. Keith Tkachuk, center (10th year)
Tkachuk amassed 538 goals and 1,065 points in 1,201 games over his 18-season career. He led the league in goals only once (1996-97) but was otherwise a model of consistency. He’s 34th all-time in goals. Every player ahead of him who is Hall of Fame-eligible is enshrined. That offensive point shares stat we mentioned earlier with Mogilny? Tkachuk is the only player ahead of him (37th) who is eligible for the Hall but not in yet.
He won World Cup gold in 1996 and Olympic silver in 2002 but never the Stanley Cup. It’s a solid but unspectacular career, but those numbers are hard to ignore.
“I really like Tkachuk’s case. His goal scoring was off the charts. It’s just not as obvious because he’s a ‘Dead Puck era’ victim,” Pidutti said. “If he was playing in a neutral era, he’d already be in.”
The Patrick Marleau Question
Marleau is in his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame, and his candidacy raises a very compelling question: Does breaking the NHL record for career games played make him a hockey legend or just an accomplished compiler of stats?
Marleau finished his career with 1,779 career games played, breaking Gordie Howe’s all-time record of 1,767. He’s 23rd in NHL history with 566 goals and 52nd in career points with 1,197. He cracked 30 goals seven times and had a career peak of 44 goals in 2009-10. He won Olympic gold in Vancouver and Sochi, IIHF World Championship gold in 2003 and the World Cup in 2004, all with Canada.
But Marleau was a finalist for only one NHL award: the Lady Byng, for gentlemanly play, once. He was never one of the NHL’s elite players and played in the shadow of better players in San Jose like Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski.
Yet his durability and consistency deserve to be lauded, as does his character as a player. His case will be a fascinating one. There’s no denying the enormity of the record he shattered. Consider that 38-year-old Dallas Stars defenseman Ryan Suter, the active player with the most games played, is currently over 400 games behind him.
Other first-year-eligible former NHLers
Among the other players in their first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame, the most interesting case is Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne, who won the Vezina Trophy in 2017-18 and was a finalist four times. He’s 20th in career wins and 19th in career shutouts. Internationally, he won silver in the 2014 world championships. Pidutti likes Miller’s Hall of Fame case better, he said, because Rinne had too many peaks and valleys in his career.
Other notable first-year players are forwards David Backes, Mikko Koivu and Travis Zajac; as well as defensemen Braydon Coburn and Niklas Hjalmarsson.
Big-name holdovers
Two players who made our top 10 last year are still waiting for the call: Brind’Amour, in his 11th year of eligibility, and goalie Curtis Joseph, in his 12th year. It might not be an encouraging sign for CuJo that three goalies were added to the Hall and he wasn’t one of them. The same might be said for Chris Osgood, who is 13th in career wins.
After Tkachuk, the players with the greatest number of goals who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Pat Verbeek (522), Jeremy Roenick (513) and Peter Bondra (503). Scoring winger Steve Larmer and former Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers star Rick Nash also have their backers.
One interesting case to watch: New Jersey Devils forward Patrik Elias, who is starting to get the same kind of “did we sleep on how great this guy was?” buzz that Zubov received before his selection. He had 1,025 points in 1,240 career games for a franchise that didn’t always put a premium on offense. During his peak years from 1999-2000 to 2003-04, he was sixth in the league in goals and ninth in points in aggregate.
In the women’s category, Chu, Team Canada forward Meghan Agosta and goalie Shannon Szabados should be considered. Internationally, keep an eye on Swiss goalie Florence Schelling and Swedish goalie Kim Martin.
Final prediction for the Class of 2024
If there’s no Russian factor, then we’ll go with Pavel Datsyuk, Alex Mogilny and Shea Weber. If there is a Russian factor, then we’ll go with Keith Tkachuk, Shea Weber and Henrik Zetterberg.
Meghan Duggan and Jennifer Botterill will become the first double induction since the inaugural women’s class. Former Nashville Predators GM David Poile will be inducted as a builder.