Projected 2024 draft order: Bears, Patriots lead the race for the top selection

The Chicago Bears have the best chance to land the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, according to projections by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Bears received this selection from the 1-11 Carolina Panthers in an offseason trade that gave the Panthers the first pick in the 2023 draft. Chicago is followed in the projections by the 2-10 New England Patriots.

There already have been three trades involving first-round picks for April’s draft. The Houston Texans own the Cleveland Browns‘ pick, while the Arizona Cardinals are also in line to have two selections in Round 1. The 2024 pick the Green Bay Packers received from the New York Jets in their offseason trade for Aaron Rodgers will be a second-round selection, not a first-rounder, because Rodgers (who is out with a torn Achilles) will not play 65% of the team’s snaps this season.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team’s average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2024 NFL draft (updated Dec. 5):

Average draft position: 1.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 76.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: greater than 99.9%

Average draft position: 2.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 93.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.9%

Average draft position: 4.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 78.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.7%

Average draft position: 5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 66.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.2%

Average draft position: 5.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.6%

Average draft position: 6.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 90.2%

Average draft position: 7.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 24.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 87.8%

Average draft position: 7.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 85.6%

Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.8%

Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38.4%