Conn Smythe Watch: Who leads for Stanley Cup playoffs MVP as the Final begins?

After three grueling and very entertaining rounds, either the Florida Panthers or the Edmonton Oilers will raise the Stanley Cup as the NHL’s champion.

The Conn Smythe Trophy field for playoff MVP offers a far greater number of potential winners.

We asked nearly two dozen potential voters and hockey media that have covered the playoffs for their top three players for postseason MVP. Those ballots were compiled to create this ranking. We attempted to have an equal number of Eastern and Western Conference media in the survey.

Here’s a look at where the Conn Smythe race stands ahead of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+). Keep in mind that the winner is determined for their entire body of postseason work and not just what happens in this final round.

Everyone likes a comeback story. Skinner had a save percentage under .900 in six of his first eight playoff games. That’s when coach Kris Knoblauch benched his starting goalie, replacing him with Calvin Pickard in Games 4 and 5 against the Vancouver Canucks. Skinner returned to win Games 6 and 7. In his past eight playoff games, Skinner is 6-2 with a 1.91 goals-against average and a .919 save percentage. Knoblauch praised him as the difference-maker in their important Game 5 win at Dallas.

In full disclosure, Skinner didn’t receive a top-three vote from our panelists, but a few mentioned he was at least on their radars.

One of the Panthers’ most clutch scorers, Verhaeghe had three goals and three assists against the New York Rangers in the conference finals — although he had only one goal in the final three games of the series. He leads Florida with nine goals, and is tied for second with 17 points.

His only vote was a third-place one, but you can never count out a player that has five overtime goals and nine winners in his past 62 playoffs games to make another splash.

At first glance, it’s hard to believe that a player who leads the Stanley Cup playoffs with 14 goals could muster just one third-place vote on a ballot. But when you consider how many of those goals were created by players ahead of Hyman on this list, that starts to make more sense.

One bit of history that Hyman is chasing in the playoffs: His combined 68 goals between the regular season (where he scored a career-high 54 times) and the playoffs are tied for the fourth most by a left wing in NHL history. He’s within reach of Luc Robitaille’s 1992-93 record of 72 goals.

With 19 points in 17 games, Tkachuk is the leading scorer on the Panthers through three rounds. He doesn’t have the spotlight moments like he did last postseason, but it’s not exactly easy to live up to heroics like that Game 5 overtime goal in Boston or his three winners in the conference finals against Carolina in 2023. Tkachuk appeared in third place on one ballot. That could change in a hurry if he puts his stamp on the Stanley Cup Final.

Keep two things in mind here: Tkachuk broke his sternum in Game 3 against Vegas last season and feels he has unfinished business, and he was public enemy No. 1 in Edmonton while a member of the Calgary Flames. Tkachuk has 26 points in 32 career games vs. the Oilers.

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It’s been a star-making performance for the Oilers defenseman. He has 27 points in 18 games, including six goals and 21 assists. The majority of those points (15) have come at even strength. He’s averaging 24:33 in ice time per game, tops on the Oilers.

He has a couple of records in sight in the final. He trails Edmonton assistant coach Paul Coffey (25 in 1985) for the most assists in a single postseason by a defenseman, which would also give Bouchard the most ever for an Oilers defenseman. Bouchard was third in three ballots and second on one of them, by a voter that had him right behind Connor McDavid.

Keep in mind that defensemen have won the Conn Smythe twice in the past four seasons.

There’s a 16-point difference between Bouchard and Forsling, and yet it’s the Panthers defenseman that slots into the top 5 for the Conn Smythe.

Forsling appeared on one more ballot than Bouchard did, but his placement in the ranking is thanks to one voter putting Forsling atop their ballot — yes, ahead of McDavid.

The Gus supporters will tell you that he’s been a rock on defense for the Panthers, skating 23:18 per game. Florida has a goals-against per 60 minutes of 1.87 at 5-on-5 with Forsling on the ice.

He’s had some MVP moments, too: His winning goal in Game 6 at Boston to close out that series, and his goal to tie Game 5 against the Rangers before Florida won that critical game. Will enough voters get on the Gus Bus in the Final to make him a serious MVP contender?

Draisaitl led the Conn Smythe Watch ahead of the conference finals, having led the Oilers with 24 points and getting kudos for playing a 200-foot game. His scoring quieted down a bit against the Dallas Stars (two goals, two assists in six games), which in turn turned down the volume on his candidacy. But Draisaitl was still the first choice on one ballot and second on three others.

He’s three points in back of McDavid for the playoff scoring lead — and ready to carry the load offensively if the Panthers figure out a way to slow McDavid down.

Draisaitl has been focused on the Cup since the last postseason ended.

“There were a lot of painful years that we’ve gone through and lots of learning along the way,” Draisaitl said after eliminating Dallas. “We have bigger dreams and goals right now.”

If you want to know how good “Playoff Bob” has been, just ask his close friend Artemi Panarin.

The Rangers star pumped 16 pucks on Bobrovsky in the conference finals. The Panthers goalie stopped all but one. “He’s my friend, but I was a better friend than him this series,” Panarin joked Tuesday. “I told him ‘good luck.’ I wish he wins [the Cup]. He deserves it.”

Bobrovsky has a .908 save percentage and a 2.20 goals-against average in 17 games. He’s gotten better as the playoffs have progressed, adjusting from last postseason’s high shot volume to having to remain locked in behind a shot-suppressing Panthers defense.

He’s been there when they’ve needed him, which is the very definition of “Playoff Bob.”

Barkov appeared first on five ballots as the clear No. 1 choice for the Conn Smythe among Panthers players. He has 17 points in 17 games, including six goals. But as usual, it’s not just about the offensive output for the winner of the 2023-24 Selke Trophy. Barkov shut down Rangers center Mika Zibanejad in the conference finals. He dominated whoever the Bruins matched against him in the second round.

It could be Barkov vs. McDavid for good portions of the Stanley Cup Final. If Florida wins and McDavid doesn’t run wild, it could be Barkov’s MVP award to lose. Clearly, the voters are ready to support him, having appeared on 48% of our ballots in a crowded field.

But there’s another player that appeared on 100% of our ballots.

Sometimes, all it takes is one moment to crystalize an MVP campaign. When McDavid sliced through the Stars defense — apparently disconnecting Miro Heiskanen‘s video game controller in the process — to open the scoring in Game 6 of the conference finals, the highlight immediately entered the pantheon of his greatest goals.

As Draisaitl said: “There’s one player in the world that can make things like that happen.”

But it was also an example of McDavid willing his team to victory, as he assisted on Hyman’s power-play goal to build a 2-0 lead at home in an elimination game.

McDavid has points in 14 of 18 games this postseason for the Oilers. He’s within range of Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record for most assists in a single postseason: McDavid has 26 helpers and Gretzky holds the record with 31 assists in 1988.

While all of this might make it seem like McDavid is an inevitable MVP, please note that he was first on only 38% of the ballots, despite appearing on all of them. That means the door is ajar for his teammates if the Oilers win.

And if they don’t, and McDavid still has the series of his life, please note there hasn’t been a player that’s won the Conn Smythe in a losing effort since Anaheim goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere in 2003. It’s happened only five times since 1965.

“There’s no J-S Giguere this year,” one voter said, “so it totally depends on who wins the Cup.”