Way-too-early Calder Trophy watch for 2024-25: Is it Macklin Celebrini’s race to lose?

Is Macklin Celebrini about to follow Connor Bedard in becoming the latest No. 1 pick to win the Calder Trophy? Or could a winner come from a dynamic field that features Cutter Gauthier, Matvei Michkov, Logan Stankoven and Will Smith?

We won’t know the answers to those questions until next June … but why wait? Being the top pick in 2023 — plus the fact he’d been talked about for years — made Bedard an early Calder front-runner, only for Brock Faber to emerge as a serious challenger who at one time appeared as if he could win.

So what about this season? Who are the favorites and why? Who are the less-hyped players to keep an eye on who could potentially emerge as serious Calder challengers? Here’s our way-too-early look.

Note: Players are listed in alphabetical order.

The Stars have one of the NHL’s strongest farm systems, which has allowed them to be in a championship window while giving their prospects opportunities too. In recent seasons, prospects such as Thomas Harley, Miro Heiskanen, Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson became important players in their first full season, en route to becoming crucial figures.

The next in that line could be Bourque, who is a candidate to start the season as the Stars’ third-line center. It would be a natural transition considering how he has developed over the past two seasons. Bourque went from 47 points in 70 games in the 2022-23 season for the AHL’s Texas Stars to scoring 77 points in 71 games in the 2023-24 season.

Calder races can be greatly influenced by details such as role and usage. That’s what made the race between Bedard and Faber compelling. Bedard logged the minutes that came with being a No. 1 center, while Faber emerged into a top-pairing defenseman who could play in every situation.

Celebrini has the chance to do the same with the Sharks. Finishing with the worst record in the NHL was a result of the Sharks having several significant problem areas. Scoring goals was among them. They were last in goals scored and had a power play that finished in the bottom third. Finding players who could improve that situation was a priority, and Celebrini is a part of that plan. He was drafted with the belief that the 32 goals and 64 points in his lone season at Boston University would translate to the NHL, as a top-line center capable of operating on a first-team power-play unit.

Celebrini’s ability, usage and a supporting cast that’s now led by three-time 30-goal scorer Tyler Toffoli could result in the 18-year-old Hobey Baker Award winner being a wire-to-wire favorite in what’s expected to be a competitive race.

Doan was named to the AHL’s All-Rookie team thanks to scoring 26 goals and 46 points in 62 games, and was promoted to the NHL toward the end of last season. Doan would score five goals and nine points in 11 games, providing a sample of what he could achieve in The Show.

So what could Doan do over the course of an entire season? The Utah Hockey Club will find out during the first campaign in franchise history.

During his time in charge of the Arizona Coyotes, Utah coach Andre Tourigny trusted young forwards like Matias Maccelli and Logan Cooley — a pair of players who were named to the two most recent NHL All-Rookie teams. Given that Doan is currently projected as a third-line winger, could he follow Maccelli and Cooley as the next Tourigny-coached player to earn that honor?

Gauthier is another incoming rookie who has everything from opportunity to role to playing for a franchise that’s shown a willingness to trust young talent. What connects those traits is the fact that the Ducks are in a rebuild, trying to improve upon a season that saw them finish with the third-worst record in the NHL.

Part of their strategy has been to play homegrown talents together, such as Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry — the two players who could be Gauthier’s linemates on the Ducks’ top trio. The Ducks were third from bottom in goals scored in 2023-24. That creates a need for more players who can help improve those numbers, and the Ducks appear to have one with Gauthier. He finished with 38 goals and 65 points over 41 games during his freshman season at Boston College.

Finding a way to parlay what he did at BC and at the world juniors — where he scored seven points for the gold medal-winning Team USA — will play a major role in strengthening his Calder candidacy.

Can Hutson score 50 points? And if he does hit the 50-point mark, could it be enough for him to be the third defenseman to win the Calder in six seasons?

A defenseman has finished among the top three finalists for three consecutive years and four times in the past five years. Of those, Cale Makar finished with 50 points in 57 games, while Moritz Seider had 50 points in 82 games, and each won the Calder during his respective rookie campaign. Both of them averaged more than 21 minutes per game and have the sort of roles that made them a legitimate top-four option.

Hutson could possibly hit both of those benchmarks. Hutson tallied more than 15 goals and 48 points in each of his two campaigns at Boston University. One detail that could strengthen his case is his usage, and whether he gets elevated to the Canadiens’ top power-play unit (which would boost the point totals).

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Lane Hutson notches go-ahead goal for Boston University

Lane Hutson sneaks the puck into the net to give Boston University a lead they don’t relinquish.

The Wild have had Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi and Faber excel as rookies in recent seasons. It’s a system that’s yielded results, and that trend could continue in 2024-25 with Khusnutdinov.

It could be difficult for him to break into a top-six role given Joel Eriksson Ek and Rossi are above him, but his experience in the KHL has prepared him to potentially serve as the Wild’s third-line center. And given the Wild’s recent run of rookie performers, there’s always the possibility Khusnutdinov could carve a place for himself in the Calder race.

For now, it appears Kovalenko could be in a top-six role when the season starts. As for what happens later? That might be the biggest question facing the Avalanche when it comes to how they’ll use the talented rookie.

Captain Gabriel Landeskog said in May that he’ll play at some point in the 2024-25 season but is unsure when he’ll return. Valeri Nichushkin’s May suspension for at least six months means he will not come back until November.

Kovalenko’s most recent two seasons in the KHL saw him average 0.91 points per game. Missing two top-six wingers coupled with Kovalenko’s KHL production is what adds to the belief that he could challenge for at least a second-line role for a team that’s in need of secondary and tertiary scoring.

There are several reasons Michkov could win the Calder. It starts with the fact that he was playing in the KHL this past season, consistently creating and scoring goals against players older than him. As a 17-year-old in 2022-23, he scored nine goals and 20 points in 27 games for HK Sochi while on loan from SKA St. Petersburg. Last season, an 18-year-old Michkov played his first full season in the KHL, scoring 19 goals and 41 points in 47 games.

At 19, he provides the Flyers with a rookie who has professional top-six and power-play experience in what’s arguably the world’s strongest league outside the NHL. Another item to consider when it comes to Michkov’s Calder candidacy: He’s joining an organization that has a track record with trusting young players. Noah Cates, Joel Farabee, Tyson Foerster and Owen Tippett are among those younger than 25 who found success.

It’s possible that Michkov could be the next young Flyer who gets that shot. And given his projected place in the lineup, he’ll have the opportunity to put up some big numbers too.

All the offensive issues the Sharks encountered last season are what made Smith’s decision to sign his entry-level contract after one season at BC a pivotal one for the club. Smith scored 25 goals and 71 points in 41 games for the Eagles, which made him one of the nation’s top players.

It’s not so much a question of if Smith will play, but where he will play for the Sharks. There’s a chance he could play down the middle or at right wing. Either way, he’ll be used in a top-six role while also receiving power-play chances.

Smith is expected to be a serious contender for the Calder, though his candidacy could be altered by the fact he’s on the same team (and possibly the same line) as Celebrini.

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Will Smith buries opening goal for Boston College

Will Smith takes advantage of a two-on-one breakaway chance and lights the lamp for Boston College.

Yes, Stankoven is a rookie who remains eligible for the Calder — albeit barely. Stankoven played 24 games for the Stars last season, which is one fewer than the cutoff for rookie eligibility.

Stankoven scored six goals and 14 points in those 24 games, then eight points in 19 playoff games. His 24 goals and 57 points in 47 games for the Texas Stars led to him winning the Dudley “Red” Garrett Memorial Award as the AHL’s top rookie.

The Stars have used the past few seasons to gradually provide opportunities to their homegrown talents, and Stankoven could be the latest to be used in a top-six role.

Meet the player who might be the most fascinating Calder candidate to this point, and it starts with his eligibility.

NHL rules state that any player “at least 26 years of age (by September 15 of that season) is not considered a rookie.” The 25-year-old turns 26 on Sept. 19 — a four-day gap that sees him qualify in a tight margin.

During the past few seasons in Russia, he has gone from splitting time between the KHL and developmental leagues into a 6-foot-3, full-time forward with Spartak Moscow; his 31 goals in 65 games last season ranked fourth among all players.

The Islanders signed him to a one-year deal, with the belief that he can add production to a roster that was 22nd in goals scored last season.

Here’s where the Calder discussion gets extremely interesting.

The last goaltender to win the Calder Trophy was Steve Mason in the 2008-09 season. Mason played in 61 games, won 33 of those contests and helped the Blue Jackets reach the playoffs. Since then, his work has become the standard for any goaltender trying to establish a legitimate Calder case.

Wolf started 11 of the Flames’ 18 final regular-season games after he was promoted from the AHL. The expectation is that Wolf will work in tandem with Dan Vladar this season.

Attempting to come close to Mason’s numbers could prove difficult, with more teams moving to tandems; there were only three goalies during the 2023-24 season who played more than 60 games, and only nine of them won more than 30 games.

All of that hypothetically changes the calculus for how Wolf and other rookie goalies might be viewed in the Calder race. But, it still makes him one of the more intriguing rookies to watch this season.

Other names to watch

Justus Annunen, G, Colorado Avalanche
Tyler Kleven, D, Ottawa Senators
Bradly Nadeau, F, Carolina Hurricanes
Matthew Savoie, C, Edmonton Oilers
Arturs Silovs, G, Vancouver Canucks
Shane Wright, C, Seattle Kraken
Olen Zellweger, D, Anaheim Ducks