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Sam Bruce, Deputy Editor, espn.com.au
Okay, you’ve had your rest, it’s time to switch back into Rugby Championship mode, as Rounds 3 and 4 are on the horizon.
After launching the competition on either side of the Tasman Sea, the action now shifts to South Africa and Argentina, who host New Zealand and Australia respectively.
So, what is the state of play? What shape is each nation in? And what are they shooting for over the next fortnight and beyond?
SOUTH AFRICA – FIRST, 10 POINTS
Rounds 1 and 2: Daring. Destructive. Dominant. Yes, the Springboks played all over the Wallabies in their back-to-back wins in Brisbane and Perth, securing two vital bonus points along the way. After selecting his first-choice line-up in Queensland, South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus then mixed things up with a whopping 11 changes in Western Australia – and still saw his side pull away from the Wallabies after halftime. Led by the irrepressible Pieter-Steph du Toit, one of only two forwards who started both Tests, the Boks had far too much firepower up front for Australia, who could not find a way through a defiant green wall. The world champions also used their scrum to win easy territory in Brisbane and while that advantage was absolved by multiple Australian injuries in Perth, and the ensuring uncontested set-piece, South Africa were then fresh to work the Wallabies over at the maul. The two-week tour could really could not have gone any better for South Africa.
What’s ahead: Is there a better rivalry in Test rugby than the Springboks and All Blacks? Certainly the administrators of both national unions don’t think so, with a plan to bring back extended tours between the two countries all but rubber-stamped. For now, though, the Boks can wrap up the Rugby Championship with wins in Johannesburg and Cape Town, while even one victory would leave them in pole position for a first title since 2019. The big bonus for Erasmus is the fact that he was able to give a swathe of frontline players the week off in Perth, headed by Siya Kolisi, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonamni, Cobus Reinach, Damian de Allende, Cheslin Kolbe and Willie le Roux; the extra seven days’ rest sure to have left the World Cup winners in peak condition when they returned to the training paddock on home soil. But they will also be wary of an All Blacks side that was under the pump in the Republic two years ago, with Ian Foster on the verge of being sacked, that then responded to pinch the second Test.
Selection: Erasmus will no doubt return to his strongest possible team for this week’s clash in Ellis Park, but he has a call to make in the halves. Rising playmaker Sascha Feinberg-Mngomezulu had an excellent game in Brisbane, but then found the going far tougher in Perth, where he was replaced by Handre Pollard, who has done the business for the Boks at two World Cups. Given the level of intensity, physicality and pressure that besets clashes between these two great rivals, it would be reasonable to expect Erasmus may favour Pollard for the Ellis Park clash at least.
NEW ZEALAND – SECOND, 5 POINTS
Rounds 1 and 2: Wellington just isn’t a happy hunting ground for the All Blacks as, once again, the “Capital Curse” struck and Scott Robertson suffered his first loss as New Zealand coach in the process. That defeat was largely due to a second-half capitulation that featured one of the worst pieces of play in All Blacks history – and ultimately led to the Pumas landing the match’s defining blow. The criticism came from far and wide — rightfully so, too — before the All Blacks produced the kind of response we’ve come to expect in thumping the Pumas 42-10 for a 50th straight win at Eden Park. While the first half of that win delivered the All Blacks’ best rugby under Robertson to date, it’s clear this team is still very much finding its feet under Robertson. Just what impact the difference of opinion in approach and strategy between seven-time Super Rugby winning coach and his attacking assistant Leon MacDonald, which brought about the latter’s departure last week, was having on the All Blacks’ overall game is unknown at this point, but it may be that one clear voice is what game-drivers TJ Perenara, Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett were seeking.
What’s ahead: Given their shock defeat in Wellington, in which they also failed to register a losing bonus point, the All Blacks must win at least one game in the Republic. Even then, that would mean Robertson’s team would still be relying on the world champions to slip up against the Pumas in one of their two closing fixtures of the tournament. Two years ago, the All Blacks were easily swept aside in Mbombela, before they then produced one of their finest performances of the Foster era to save the coach’s job in Johannesburg. While they will take some belief from that win at altitude, the second Test in Cape Town looks more winnable this time around.
Selection: The All Blacks will be boosted by the return of Scott Barrett at lock, the skipper back after a finger injury saw him miss both Tests against Argentina. Barrett immediately makes the pack a stronger unit, while Tamaiti Williams’ inclusion at loosehead prop in the second Test in Auckland also paid immediate dividends. There is still some consternation about the make-up of the All Blacks’ back-row, which could yet see Sam Cane come into consideration for a start at No. 7 ahead of Dalton Papali’i, while Samipeni Finau’s added physicality could also bring him into consideration at No. 6.
ARGENTINA – THIRD, 4 POINTS
Rounds 1 and 2: Belted by the All Blacks in last year’s World Cup semifinals, the Pumas produced one of the all-time great turnarounds to upset New Zealand in Wellington only nine months later. The 38-30 victory was their third over the All Blacks in four years, and second on New Zealand soil, but was probably the pick of the bunch given it was the most points the three-time World Cup champions had ever conceded on home soil. It also reflected the growth in the Pumas’ game under new coach Felipe Contepomi as they scored four tries in contrasting fashions and took virtually every opportunity that came their way. However, as was the case with their three previous wins over the All Blacks, the Pumas were unable to back that performance up a week later in Auckland, where they were hammered by 32 points. What they will have taken from that performance, though, was the fact that they lost the second half only 12-7 and, upon review, will have worked out that they played right into the All Blacks’ hands in a loose first 40.
What’s ahead: Given the Wallabies’ current struggles, the Pumas should have set themselves the non-negotiable target of back-to-back wins over Australia, which would put the South Americans on course for their best ever finish to the tournament. Argentina were beaten by Australia on home soil in a helter-skelter clash first up two years ago, but look a far more collected team under Contepomi this season. They have however had issues at scrum time while their 21 turnovers in Auckland – some of which can be put down to the horrid conditions – also don’t make more enjoyable viewing. The Pumas do however have a relatively settled squad and have at last found their man at No. 10 in Santiago Carreras, while Pablo Matera continues to be an indomitable force all over the paddock.
Selection: The Pumas have welcomed back fiery lock Guido Petti with Efrain Elias ruled out through injury, while outside backs Matias Moroni and Martin Bogado are also sidelined. That has opened up the opportunity for sevens flyer and Olympian Rodrigo Isgro to come into the squad and offer Contemponi another fleet-footed winger alongside Mateo Carreras, who tied Damian McKenzie in knots with an opportunistic try in Wellington.
AUSTRALIA – FOURTH, 0 POINTS
Rounds 1 and 2: The Wallabies came crashing back to earth after an undefeated July as they were beaten handsomely by South Africa in Brisbane and Perth. Joe Schmidt declared Australia learned “the benchmark” in Brisbane, but despite a dogged first half against an understrength Springboks team in Perth, they were unable to take any genuine strides towards it. That was always going to be tough to do in the space of the week, but Australia’s inability to breach South Africa’s defensive line reflected a team that has few ball-carrying options and badly missed Taniela Tupou up front. The fact they scored only one try in 160 minutes of rugby underlines the scope of the problem. There were moments of encouragement – a smart scrum starter play that resulted in a 50/22 kick from Tom Wright, a chief example – but the Wallabies otherwise had little to cheer about against the world champions.
What’s ahead: The Wallabies flew out for Argentina on Friday, ensuring they have a week to acclimatize to the conditions in South America, which should hopefully be a lot better than they were in Perth. Australia will enjoy the harder, faster track but they must somehow find a way to generate some go-forward to bring their outside backs into the game. They will start outsiders in both Tests, but Australia will be desperate for at least one victory – otherwise with back-to-backs clashes with the All Blacks still to come, they will be staring down an embarrassing winless Rugby Championship.
Selections: The big news for Australia is that Tupou is once again ready for selection, with the prop having sat out the Tests against the Springboks. While Schmidt noted that Australia can’t rely on the tighthead to generate momentum up front alone, his inclusion does give the Wallabies an injection of size and power, though just how fit he is after a fortnight off could see him return via the bench. Schmidt otherwise has a call to make at inside centre following Hunter Paisami’s injury, with Hamish Stewart and David Feluai both under consideration for a debut. Meanwhile, Nick Frost and Jeremy Williams are both back after head knocks. Schmidt may also consider a start for Max Jorgensen, after the teenage winger gave a glimpse of his talent in tough conditions in Perth.