Scott Robertson will name a 36-man squad for the All Blacks five-Test northern tour on Monday.
The All Blacks carried the same squad size for the Rugby Championship, leaving little wriggle room for selection shocks.
Robertson will embrace a degree of flexibility with a further 29 players joining the second-tier All Blacks XV, with some players to move between the two teams, while in the north.
While continuity will be the theme of Robertson’s squad for Tests against Japan, England, Ireland, France and Italy changes will come in specific areas.
Rugby Championship squad: Ethan De Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell, Pasilio Tosi, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Tamaiti Williams
Keep: Ethan De Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell, Pasilio Tosi, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Tamaiti Williams
Young, mobile, technically proficient, the All Blacks propping rotation is among their strengths. Other than Ofa Tu’ungafasi, who is somewhat on the outer, five of the All Blacks six props are under the age of 28 and, therefore, the long-term future of the front-row.
Since the lows of 2022 the All Blacks’ scrum has vastly improved under Jason Ryan.
Tu’ungafasi is the sole survivor from the home series loss to Ireland.
The All Blacks have since significantly evolved their front-row, with a firm focus on mobility, ball skills and set-piece strength. With everyone fit, there is no need to alter the established mix with this tour set to be another notable experience on their belts.
HOOKERS:
Rugby Championship squad: Asafo Aumua, Codie Taylor, George Bell
Keep: Codie Taylor, Asafo Aumua
Dump: George Bell
Add: Ricky Riccitelli
Hooking stocks aren’t flush for the All Blacks.
Dane Coles’ retirement and Samisoni Taukei’aho’s season-ending Achilles rupture left an experience void which forced Codie Taylor to play massive minutes in successive Tests against the Springboks in South Africa. That is not sustainable.
Concerns remain around Asafo Aumua’s throwing at the backend of high-pressure Tests.
George Bell, the 22-year-old Crusaders hooker, was not used in the Rugby Championship and sighted once prior for 25 minutes off the bench on debut against Fiji.
Bell, in my view, would be better served gaining experience with the All Blacks XV against Munster and Georgia.
Scott Robertson needs a calm lineout thrower he can rely on behind Taylor. That man is Ricky Riccitelli.
For the championship-winning Blues this season Riccitelli set standards for set-piece accuracy. There’s no questioning his work-rate around the field, either, after he scored four tries – all from mauls – for Taranaki in recent weeks.
Robertson wants to groom Bell for the future but that can be achieved with the All Blacks XV, with Riccitelli instead primed to deliver now.
LOCKS:
Rugby Championship squad: Scott Barrett, Tupou Vaa’i, Patrick Tuipulotu, Sam Darry
Keep: Scott Barrett, Tupou Vaa’i, Patrick Tuipulotu, Sam Darry
Dump:
Add:
It’s a tight call for the fourth locking spot between Sam Darry and Josh Lord. From a physicality perspective, Lord edges Darry but after a string of frustrating injury setbacks the Chiefs lock hasn’t played enough rugby this year to demand inclusion over his Blues counterpart.
LOOSE FORWARDS:
Rugby Championship squad: Ethan Blackadder, Sam Cane, Samipeni Finau, Luke Jacobson, Dalton Papali’i, Ardie Savea, Wallace Sititi
Keep: Ethan Blackadder, Sam Cane, Luke Jacobson, Dalton Papali’i, Ardie Savea, Wallace Sititi
Dump: Samipeni Finau
Add: Peter Lakai
Easily the most contestable area of Robertson’s squad.
Firstly the All Blacks must determine the value of carrying Sam Cane through to the end of the year – or cutting him loose before he departs to Japan. Leadership wise Cane’s presence is invaluable in the absence of several other notable figures post World Cup. His defence in the close quarter exchanges is also desirable.
While Cane’s 100th Test marked a special occasion he was exposed by the Wallabies fleet-footed backs in open field.
I believe it is time to move on from Cane as a starter, with Ardie Savea switching to openside and Wallace Sititi slotting in his accustomed No. 8 role, but Robertson could justify Cane’s presence in the squad.
Dynamic 21-year-old Hurricanes flanker Peter Lakai needs to be promoted. Lakai spent time with the All Blacks in July before returning to Wellington. As the future of the All Blacks’ loose forwards investing in him now will pay off long term.
Dalton Papali’i has rapidly fallen out of favour with Cane instead preferred to start and there is a sameness about his work-rate and defensive qualities with Luke Jacobson.
Like Papali’i, Chiefs blindside Samipeni Finau hasn’t been sighted in the last three Tests and could benefit from regaining confidence with the All Blacks XV.
HALFBACKS:
Rugby Championship squad: TJ Perenara, Cortez Ratima, Noah Hotham
Keep: Cortez Ratima, Noah Hotham
Dump: TJ Perenara
Add: Cam Roigard
There’s many ways Robertson could approach selecting his nines but with TJ Perenara moving to Japan next year, the future is the now.
Before tearing his patella and missing the entire Super Rugby season Cam Roigard was the bolted on starting halfback for the All Blacks this year.
Roigard has since recovered and will make his return for Counties Manukau this weekend. Should he emerge unscathed from two provincial matches he must be included for the northern tour which necessitates one change to the mix.
Noah Hotham, as the youngest prospect and having not been used during the Rugby Championship, needs game time which could come with the All Blacks XV. Robertson will be tempted to retain Perenara’s experience but at this point he is better served investing and promoting Roigard, Cortez Ratima and Hotham who all suit the All Blacks’ desire to play at pace.
FIRST FIVE-EIGHTH:
Rugby Championship squad: Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett, Stephen Perofeta
Keep: Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett, Stephen Perofeta
Dump: Harry Plummer
Add:
No change needed with McKenzie and Barrett set to duke it out for the No. 10 jersey in the headline Tests.
After twice starting at fullback against England, Stephen Perofeta was listed in the outside backs for the Rugby Championship but he didn’t feature due to a calf injury to pave the way for Harry Plummer’s debut off the bench in Sydney.
With Perofeta to return this weekend for Taranaki, he should resume his place which would allow Plummer to lead the All Blacks XV from first-five.
MIDFIELD
Rugby Championship squad: Jordie Barrett, David Havili, Rieko Ioane, Anton Lienert-Brown, Billy Proctor
Keep: Jordie Barrett, David Havili, Rieko Ioane, Anton Lienert-Brown, Billy Proctor
Dump:
Add:
While it’s a case of continuity there is a desperate desire to promote classy centre Billy Proctor. Not embracing his talent during the Rugby Championship was a big missed opportunity for the All Blacks.
Jordie Barrett is a slight injury concern but he is targeting a return from his medial ligament strain in the tour opener against Japan in Tokyo.
OUTSIDE BACKS
Rugby Championship squad: Caleb Clarke, Will Jordan, Ruben Love, Sevu Reece, Mark Tele’a
Keep: Caleb Clarke, Will Jordan, Ruben Love, Mark Tele’a
Dump: Sevu Reece
Add: Emoni Narawa
The All Blacks won’t go down this route, but I believe Chiefs wing Emoni Narawa deserves another chance at Test level.
Robertson has heavily favoured Sevu Reece on the right wing, despite some costly errors, ahead of Mark Tele’a.
Narawa barely had a look in before being cast aside after the July series – and has since produced compelling form for Bay of Plenty.
Reece remains a quality finisher but he is erratic at times and, with an aerial bombardment looming, he could be exposed there in the northern winter.
The other way to recall Narawa is to potentially relegate talented fullback Ruben Love, who missed the chance to debut due to injury, to the All Blacks XV.
With Will Jordan, Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie in the squad the All Blacks are not short of fullback options.