-
Brett Okamoto, ESPN Staff Writer
Believe it or not, Michael Chandler would probably still be waiting for Conor McGregor if it weren’t for the appeal of Charles Oliveira.
Chandler (23-8) is set to return from a two-year layoff on Saturday, when he faces Oliveira (34-10) in the co-main event of UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden. The time off was essentially self-imposed, as Chandler spent the last 24 months promoting and preparing for a lucrative bout against McGregor that never materialized — a decision that has left him open to, in his words, some heavy “public shaming” online.
And yet, Chandler was still open to the idea of waiting into 2025 — until the UFC offered him a chance to fight Oliveira, who beat him in 2021, and earn a lightweight title shot.
“Had the UFC not offered me Oliveira in a No. 1 contender fight, it would have been a hard decision,” Chandler told ESPN, on moving on from McGregor. “But once they offered me that, it was an easy decision. I want the Conor fight, I waited for the Conor fight, I deserve and earned the Conor fight, but at some point, you’re like, ‘Well, Oliveira is a great option.'”
Chandler’s willingness to wait on McGregor is embedded in his belief that the 36-year-old superstar will eventually fight again. McGregor has not fought since he broke his leg in a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in 2021. He was scheduled to face Chandler at UFC 303 in June, but withdrew due to an injured foot. McGregor has consistently stated he will fight again, but the MMA community is starting to doubt him.
To get a sense of what Chandler is or isn’t moving on from, ESPN asked the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas to set a hypothetical betting line on McGregor returning to the Octagon in 2025. Director of Race and Sports John Murray set a line of 3-1 against McGregor ever fighting again.
“I just strongly believe it doesn’t make sense for him to fight again,” Murray told ESPN. “He has so much money, and other streams of revenue coming in. He’s a family man. The last time he fought, he got seriously injured. He’s going to be 37 years old next year. Why would he put himself through another training camp? He’s never going to be able to win a belt again. What would he be fighting for?”
Chandler, who coached against McGregor on “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2023, admits he’s biased but still believes McGregor isn’t done.
“I think it’s higher than 50 percent he fights again,” Chandler said. “Maybe I’m just different, but when I eventually say I’m retired, I will never come back. Conor has never done that. He has always teased coming back. I don’t think he wants his legacy to be that he broke his leg, hyped everyone up about a return and then pulled out against Michael Chandler. I don’t think he wants that to be his ending.”
If Chandler is proven right — and McGregor does fight in 2025 — that means he is potentially taking a big risk by fighting Oliveira on Saturday. If he loses for the fourth time in his last five fights, the landscape of a potential McGregor fight could change, and not only would he have waited two years for nothing, he could end up waiting two years only to see the McGregor fight go to someone else when he does finally return.
“One hundred percent, I have put that fight in jeopardy and almost increased the odds it will never happen by taking this,” Chandler said. “I have given up on it now, to see it come back later. And that’s fine. I’m betting on myself.”
Chandler and Las Vegas agree on that point although he believes he will beat Oliveira and face McGregor in the first quarter of next year before moving on to a title. ESPN asked the Westgate Superbook to set odds on McGregor’s most likely opponent if he does return in 2025, and Chandler came in as the seventh most likely option.
McGregor’s most likely opponent if he returns in 2025
Jorge Masvidal, +225
Outside of McGregor, Masvidal is one of the biggest stars the sport has produced in the last 10 years. Masvidal, 39, retired in 2023 on the heels of a four-fight skid, but has since announced he is planning a UFC comeback. Masvidal fights at 170 pounds, the most likely weight class McGregor would return to. This would be one of the most lucrative options for McGregor’s return.
Charles Oliveira, +250
McGregor targeted Oliveira heavily online when he held the lightweight championship between 2021 and 2022. Oliveira’s stock rose tremendously during his championship reign, and McGregor previously expressed interest in fighting in Brazil, Oliveira’s home country. “Conor doesn’t want to fight Oliveira,” Chandler suggested. “A fight between me and Conor is much more intriguing to him than a fight against Oliveira.”
Max Holloway, +350
McGregor holds a win over Holloway from 2013, when they were each making their way up the featherweight ranks. Holloway has become a household name in the UFC and is still holding onto the BMF belt despite coming up short in a featherweight title shot against Ilia Topuria last month. McGregor would have a size advantage over Holloway, and who knows how much a BMF belt might appeal to him at this stage.
Nate Diaz, +800
A trilogy meeting between McGregor and Diaz always felt inevitable, until two years ago when Diaz departed from the UFC. He could always come back — he’s never signed an MMA deal with any other company — but it feels more like a longshot than a certainty at this point. “I always looked at Nate as the No. 1 option for Conor because of their history, but does the UFC want to be in business with Nate anymore?” Chandler said. “They’re not right now.”
Dan Hooker and Justin Gaethje, +1400
Two fun names that have been tied to McGregor at times in the past, but never in a truly serious way.
Michael Chandler, +1800
This shows just how far Chandler’s chances of a McGregor fight have fallen in the eyes of the Westgate Superbook following the two-year layoff. The implied odds of a +1800 payout are just over 5%.
Dustin Poirier and Ilia Topuria, +3000
McGregor’s two losses to Poirier in 2021 have never sat well with him, but with Poirier eyeing retirement, it feels like this rivalry is over for good. Topuria is an interesting name to throw around, as he’s one of the biggest rising stars in the sport. The UFC would have a lot to gain in giving Topuria the exposure that would come with a McGregor fight. With that said, there’s been no momentum in this direction as of yet.