-
Greg Wyshynski
The NHL’s most valuable player award winners usually have one thing in common: They aren’t goaltenders or defensemen.
There are all sorts of justifications for the Hart Trophy almost exclusively going to forwards: Like the fact that goalies and defensemen have their own awards or the classic “a goalie could be MVP every season!” harangue. The bottom line is that of the past 30 Hart Trophies, four went to goaltenders and one went to a defenseman.
That trend could be bucked this season, however. Not only is a goaltender leading the pack for the Hart, two defensemen are getting some MVP consideration as well.
Welcome to the NHL Awards Watch for February. We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross-section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.
Keep in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina.
All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Click here for the updated point-scoring standings.
Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy
Click here for the updated goal-scoring standings.
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers; Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
What a difference a long-term injury makes.
The front-runner for the Hart Trophy in last month’s Awards Watch was Kirill Kaprizov of the Minnesota Wild with 37% of the first-place votes. But he played only three games in January and is currently on long-term injured reserve after surgery on a lingering lower-body issue. He’s still the Wild’s leading scorer with MVP numbers (23 goals and 52 points) but his 37 games played isn’t enough to keep pace in this highly competitive race. Kaprizov didn’t receive a first-place vote in this month’s balloting.
The new leader is Hellebuyck, the Jets’ starting goaltender and last season’s Vezina Trophy winner. While he didn’t receive a first-place vote last month, he was a close second for a few voters. This time, he has earned 25% of the first-place votes, which is indicative of how tightly packed the MVP race is right now.
“Who has been more consistent and more vital to his team’s success?” asked one voter.
“He’s the best goalie by a long shot and on the best team in the league,” said another.
The Jets have 37 wins this season. Hellebuyck has 33 of them. He leads all goalies (minimum 20 appearances) in save percentage (.925) and goals-against average (2.04). Hellebuyck leads all goalies in minutes played and shots faced, the latter of which he has done four times in his career.
The NHL hasn’t had a goalie win MVP since Montreal’s Carey Price in 2014-15.
MacKinnon was a runner-up last month and is once again this month, capturing just over 20% of the vote. He leads the NHL with 80 points in 54 games. There’s a 22-point gap between MacKinnon and Cale Makar on the Colorado scoring leaderboard.
MacKinnon won the Hart last season. The NHL hasn’t had back-to-back MVPs since Alex Ovechkin won the award in 2008 and ’09.
“Nathan MacKinnon for the back-to-back, but let’s not sleep on Leon Draisaitl,” said one voter.
Draisaitl was the other runner-up last month and remains just slightly ahead of Quinn Hughes in this month’s vote. Draisaitl had roughly 20% of the first-place ballots. Hughes was around 15%.
Draisaitl leads the NHL in goals (36) and is second to MacKinnon in points (77). He won the Hart once previously, in 2019-20.
According to Evolving Hockey, Draisaitl leads the NHL in goals scored above replacement (17.8) and wins above replacement (2.9). Teammate Connor McDavid is second in both categories. McDavid has also nearly matched Draisaitl in points per game (1.46 to 1.48), playing 46 games to Leon’s 52. McDavid, who didn’t receive a first-place MVP vote, has 67 points.
“I’m torn between Leon Draisaitl and Quinn Hughes but ultimately I will go with Hughes,” said one voter. “He is completely dominating on the ice in all phases and the Canucks wouldn’t be anywhere close to the playoffs without him.”
Hughes has a slim lead over Makar in the scoring race among defensemen with 59 points in 47 games, skating 25:18 per game. There’s a 25-point gap between Hughes and the next-highest scorer on the Vancouver roster (Conor Garland). Hughes is third in the NHL in goals scored above replacement (16.5) and wins above replacement (2.7), right behind Draisaitl and McDavid.
Only one other player received multiple Hart Trophy first-place votes in our survey: Tampa Bay Lightning star Nikita Kucherov, who won the award in 2018-19.
Kucherov has 24 goals and 76 points in 49 games. That’s 22 points better than the Bolts’ second-leading scorer, Brandon Hagel. Kucherov’s 1.55 points per game leads the NHL. If he stays on that pace, it would be the ninth-best average over the past 20 seasons.
“While Kucherov is far from alone on his team, he does not have the elite support most of the other candidates have,” said one voter.
“The NHL’s preeminent playmaker — who should’ve won this last year — is averaging a whopping 0.78 primary assists per game,” said another voter. “While others can debate MacKinnon vs. Leon Draisaitl vs. Connor Hellebuyck for the league’s ultimate individual prize, Kucherov will go about his usual business of potting a point and a half per night while helping his club into a comfortable playoff position in the East — again.”
Two other players earned votes for the Hart. Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner‘s 70 points in 52 games put him fourth in scoring. He is also tied for fourth among forwards with Kucherov in goals scored above replacement (16.1). Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski leads his team in scoring (57 points) while skating an NHL-high 26:48 per game.
“If Columbus makes the playoffs, Zach Werenski will be a compelling candidate for the same reason as Kucherov — he does not have the elite support,” said one voter.
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks
Finalists: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche; Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets
He might not be in the MVP top three, but Hughes is leading the Norris vote again.
Hughes won the Norris last season. The NHL hasn’t had a back-to-back Norris winner since Nicklas Lidstrom won the award three straight years (2006-08) with the Detroit Red Wings. Hughes earned 45% of the first-place votes.
Hughes leads all defensemen in points (57) and is tied with Werenski in even-strength points among defensemen (37). Unlike Werenski and Makar, Hughes does not see significant time on the penalty kill, averaging just 10 seconds shorthanded per game.
“Vancouver is messy, but Quinn’s special again this year,” said one voter.
The Columbus Blue Jackets continue to be one of the best stories of the season, challenging for a playoff seed in the Eastern Conference after an unfathomably tragic offseason.
Werenski has had as good a season as any defenseman in the NHL, from his scoring (57 points) to his all-situations ice time. He earned 35% of the first-place votes, the clear second choice to Hughes. This is easily the most awards buzz Werenski has received; he has never finished higher than eighth in the Norris voting.
“I’m going Zach Werenski. He’s been leading the charge for Columbus, who is in a wild-card spot and still in the thick of the playoff race. He’s a big reason why,” said one voter.
“Should they ultimately end up securing a playoff spot by season’s end, the Columbus Blue Jackets will have one figure to credit more than any other,” said another voter.
Makar’s season-long hold on the Norris lead is over, as he received a smaller percentage of the first-place votes than Werenski and Hughes. Makar is second in scoring among defensemen with 58 points in 54 games. His underlying defensive numbers remain strong: The Avalanche give up fewer goals per 60 minutes with Makar on the ice (2.03) than the Blue Jackets do with Werenski (2.07) or the Canucks do with Hughes (2.17).
“It’s a very tight race between Hughes and Makar. Hughes seems to be doing a little more with a little less in Vancouver, but this likely will come down to the wire. Maybe whichever one helps his team make the playoffs?” said one voter. “Both are just so much fun to watch.”
These three defensemen were the only ones to receive a first-place vote. The only other defenseman who earned a mention from the voters was Josh Morrissey of the Winnipeg Jets.
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leader: Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks
Finalists: Lane Hutson, Montreal Canadiens; Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames
The Macklin Celebrini train keeps chugging along but the gap has closed.
Last month, the San Jose Sharks forward had 90% of the first-place votes. It is now down to 60%: a significant lead, but not an insurmountable one.
Celebrini, 18, has 16 goals and 21 assists in 42 games, missing a chuck of time to injury earlier this season. He has scored just 11 of his 37 points on the power play; the Sharks have the 26th-ranked unit in the league. His 0.88 points per game would rank in the top 15 for rookies since the 2005-06 season.
“With Mikael Granlund now traded [to Dallas], Macklin Celebrini is going to run away with the Calder. He will be forced into a more prominent role and … is already better than what the Sharks expected,” said one voter.
“Works just as hard skating toward his goaltender as he does skating away from him,” said another voter.
While Celebrini is still the leader, the finalists had a significant change: Philadelphia Flyers star rookie Matvei Michkov drops out of the top three and didn’t earn a first-place vote. He has 34 points in 52 games, but January/February has not been kind to him (2 goals and 2 assists in 15 games), and coach John Tortorella has played him fewer than 10 minutes in a couple of games. Still, he’s among the league’s top rookie point producers.
Moving up into the top three is Wolf, the outstanding rookie goalie for the Calgary Flames. He’s tied for fifth in the NHL in save percentage (.917), with a 19-9-2 record. Money Puck has him ninth in goals saved above expected (12.5).
Unlike the other leaders for the Calder, Wolf’s team is currently in a playoff spot. There’s a very good argument to be made that the Flames wouldn’t be there were it not for Wolf, and that could fuel his candidacy. He earned 25% of the vote.
“It’s Wolf — provided the Flames make the playoffs,” said one voter.
Hutson was a finalist last month and earned the rest of the first-place votes this month. The Canadiens rookie is lapping the field among defensemen in rookie scoring: His 39 points in 52 games is over 30 points higher than that of the next-highest-scoring first-year defenseman.
“Give me Lane Hutson — what a stud,” said one voter.
“I usually give a lot of weight to rookie defensemen playing big minutes on competitive teams. We’ll see how competitive the Canadiens will be, but for me, Hutson’s playing a difficult role in games that are meaningful in the standings,” said another voter. “But this is very tight with Celebrini and Wolf.”
Despite his stats, Hutson still has to overcome the current leader in hype and perception.
“Maybe one day I’ll crack on Hutson, but Celebrini is still my pick,” said one voter.
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: The NHL’s general managers vote for this award
Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals; Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames
It’s not exactly a shock to see a goalie leading the MVP race also leading for the NHL’s top goaltending prize. A goaltender has won the Hart Trophy four times since the criteria for the Vezina Trophy was adopted in 1981-82. All four times, they also won the Vezina.
Through 42 games, Hellebuyck led the NHL in wins (33), shutouts (6), save percentage (.925) and goals-against average (2.04) in propelling the Jets to the top of the Western Conference. He earned 80% of the vote from our panelists.
“This isn’t particularly close,” said one voter.
“Just put his name on it already,” said another voter.
“The gap is widening in what was already becoming a runaway race, and that’s saying something because Logan Thompson has been spectacular,” said another voter.
Ah yes, the Logan Thompson of it all. The Washington Capitals goalie had a 23-2-4 record through 29 games. Again, that’s two regulation losses in 29 appearances. You have to go back only two seasons to find a goalie who had stellar stats but was an undeniable Vezina winner because of his record: Linus Ullmark of the Boston Bruins, who went a remarkable 40-6-1.
Thompson is right there with Hellebuyck in save percentage (.924) and just a shade behind in goals against average (2.15). He actually has a slightly better analytics case than Hellebuyck according to Stathletes with 0.38 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes to Hellebuyck’s 0.26.
Thompson received 15% of the votes.
“Logan Thompson has entered the chat, and rightfully so. He doesn’t take on the same workload as Connor Hellebuyck, but my goodness he’s been an absolute brick wall,” said one voter.
The only other goalie to receive a first-place vote was Wolf. He doesn’t have the stats that Hellebuyck and Thompson have, either traditionally or analytically, but he has arguably done more with less in front of him.
Leaving the top three is Jacob Markstrom of the New Jersey Devils. His record (21-9-5) and stats (.912 save percentage, 2.20 goals-against average) are solid, but he has been out with a knee injury since Jan. 22 and should remain out through the 4 Nations Face-Off break.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Finalists: Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils; Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
The good news for Reinhart is that he has a slowly building voting bloc that appreciates his defensive acumen, as the Florida Panthers forward enters the top three for the Selke after receiving only one first-place vote last month. Reinhart earned 25% of the first-place votes from our panel. He returns to the top three after falling out last month.
The bad news is that he’ll have to overcome linemate Barkov, who has won the Selke twice in the past four seasons, including in 2023-24. Barkov remains the leader for this year’s Selke with 60% of the first-place votes.
“Just name the award after him already. He’s the Finnish Patrice Bergeron,” said one voter.
“He remains at another level with his defensive stickwork. That and his deceptive speed are what set him apart,” said another voter.
There’s an analytic argument for Reinhart over Barkov for the Selke. The Panthers have a lower goals-against per 60 minutes (1.76) with Reinhart on the ice this season than Barkov (1.88). The same goes for expected goals against for Reinhart (1.82) vs. Barkov (2.02). The Panthers have a higher 5-on-5 save percentage (.926) with Reinhart on the ice than Barkov (.921). Obviously, it’s all very close and the two have played the majority of their time together — both also kill penalties — which makes parsing the numbers more challenging.
Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs was a finalist last month but didn’t receive a first-place vote this round. Replacing him in the top three is Nico Hischier of the New Jersey Devils, who received 15% of the first-place votes. He was second for the Selke in 2022-23 and has been in that tier of players that could rise up to win one soon. The Devils have a 1.69 goals-against per 60 minutes with Hischier on the ice.
Alas, the Devils’ captain is currently week-to-week with an upper-body injury.
“That injury is going to affect his status here, no doubt. And that’s sad,” said one voter.
Jordan Staal was the only other player to receive multiple first-place votes. The Carolina Hurricanes‘ captain has been searching for his first Selke win for 15 years and finished second for the award last season. The Hurricanes average 1.79 goals against per 60 minutes with Staal on the ice.
Other players receiving first-place votes for the Selke were Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli, who was a finalist in December and Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel (the Knights give up only 1.9 goals against per 60 minutes with him on the ice). He also kills penalties effectively.
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the NHL Players’ Association instead of the PHWA.
Traditionally, this award goes to a player with a top-20 point total and the lowest penalty minutes among those players. Brayden Point is outside the top 20 in scoring (he is 25th) but has just one penalty in 46 games. That’s incredible! His lone penalty was Nov. 30 against the Toronto Maple Leafs, a tripping minor. So, like, not even one of the nasty penalties.
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.
Leader: Spencer Carbery, Washington Capitals
Finalists: Scott Arniel, Winnipeg Jets; Dean Evason, Columbus Blue Jackets
The Washington Capitals remain near the top of the NHL, and Carbery continues to get the credit for it. The second-year NHL head coach earned 85% of the first-place votes from our panel. That’s down from his unanimous claim to the top spot last month, but it makes him the heaviest favorite for any award on the ballot.
“It’s not even close,” said one voter.
Some of this love comes from the preseason expectations for the Capitals, which the team has thoroughly transcended.
“Show of hands: Who had the Capitals in a legit battle for the Presidents’ Trophy by early February?” asked one voter. “When it’s all going right, you have to credit the common denominator behind the bench.”
Said another voter: “He’s extracting every drop from that Caps team, and it’s been a lot of fun to watch. Curious how their style adapts when the postseason arrives, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.”
The Blue Jackets’ playoff push has resulted in Evason’s candidacy for the Jack Adams. Evason, in his first year in Columbus, has helped lead his team through palpable grief in the preseason to an unexpected run to the Eastern Conference bubble. He earned 10% of the vote.
The only other coach to earn a first-place vote is Arniel, who has the Jets tangling with the Capitals for best record in the league. But even one of his supporters couldn’t resist the job that Carbery has done.
“I’ve changed my vote from Scott Arniel to Spencer Carbery,” said one voter. “Even when his team was in an offensive slump, Carbery got the most out of his team and now they are scoring again and winning, a lot. He’s galvanized the group and gotten the most out of every player.”