Liverpool could move 10 points clear of Arsenal at the top of the Premier League if they beat Aston Villa in midweek, but if they lose then Arne Slot’s team could travel to Manchester City on Sunday with their lead cut to four and the first signs of a title wobble developing.
Bigger leads than seven points have been lost in Premier League title races — Manchester United threw away an eight-point lead with six games to go in 2011-12 — so Liverpool will be entering hazardous territory if they start to let their foot off the gas.
It’s difficult to gauge where Liverpool are at. With a gap at the top, they are seemingly on course for a first title since 2019-20, but recent results and performances have hinted that trouble could lie ahead and the prospect of a much closer title run-in than many had anticipated.
In isolation, their FA Cup fourth-round defeat at EFL Championship strugglers Plymouth Argyle could be dismissed as an outlier result suffered on a day when virtually all of Slot’s regulars either watched from the bench or their sofas, having been given a day off. But losing to a team anchored to the foot of the Championship table at the time didn’t reflect well on Slot’s fringe players and their ability to step in if needed during the run-in now has a significant question mark hanging over it.
The Plymouth defeat was followed by a chaotic and dramatic Merseyside derby against Everton at Goodison Park, which ended in a 2-2 draw after James Tarkowski‘s 98th-minute equaliser for the home side. Then came the 2-1 home win against Wolves on Sunday which steadied the ship, put Liverpool back on a winning trajectory and restored their seven-point lead after Arsenal had briefly reduced it to four by winning at Leicester City 24 hours earlier.
Yet the Wolves win was edgy and unconvincing. It ended, according to Opta, with Liverpool failing to register a single shot in the second half of a Premier League game at Anfield for the first time since 2003-04.
There are two ways to assess the match: It was either a classic case of a title-winning team grinding out a victory while performing poorly, or it was a sign of things beginning to go awry.
Virgil van Dijk is one of only three outfield players — alongside Fulham’s Antonee Robinson and Brentford’s Nathan Collins — to have played every single minute of every Premier League game this season. Star forward Mohamed Salah has missed only 35 minutes of Premier League football this term, while midfielder Ryan Gravenberch has been absent for only 110 this season. Van Dijk (630), Salah (602) and Gravenberch (585) have also been Liverpool’s most active players in their UEFA Champions League campaign this season.
Those numbers — and similar workloads registered by Alexis Mac Allister, Ibrahima Konaté and Luis Díaz — are why Slot rested so many players at Plymouth. The FA Cup exit will ease Liverpool’s fixture list and give the squad some much-needed breathing space between now and the end of the season, but recent performances have suggested fatigue is already having an impact.
This is why the upcoming period is so crucial for Liverpool. Slot’s side travel to face Aston Villa on Wednesday, City on Sunday, then face Newcastle at Anfield on Feb. 26. These are three huge Premier League games that could make or break their title challenge.
If Liverpool win all three, they can start to plan for a Premier League trophy parade, but any defeat would give Arsenal and third-placed Nottingham Forest, who meet at the City Ground on Feb. 26, the belief that the race is still on.
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Michallik: Liverpool ‘took their eye off the ball’ in nervy second half
Janusz Michallik says Liverpool allowed Wolves to turn what should’ve been an easy win for Arne Slot’s men into a nervous finish.
And why shouldn’t they still hold out hope of a late surge to the title? Arsenal were 12 points behind reigning champions Manchester United on March 1, 1998, but Arsene Wenger’s team still ended the season as Premier League champions. Two years earlier, Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle moved nine points clear of Sir Alex Ferguson’s side — having played one game fewer — with a 2-1 win at Middlesbrough on Feb. 10, but United reeled Newcastle in and overtook them to win the title in the final week of the campaign.
Man United and Arsenal, in 1996 and 1998, sparked their title surge with a win away to Newcastle and United, respectively, during the run-in, but while Forest have already played Liverpool twice — winning at Anfield and drawing at home — Arsenal are due to travel to Anfield on May 10 on Matchday 36/38 in what could be a title decider if Liverpool lose momentum in the weeks ahead.
Although Liverpool led from the front to win the title under Jurgen Klopp in 2019-20 — the club’s first title since 1990 — they have a poor record when it comes to holding their nerve in Premier League title races. Indeed, they have led the table on New Year’s Day on seven occasions, but in five of the previous six, they have failed to finish on top.
Liverpool blew a nine-point lead in the 2018-19 season, so their seven-point advantage right now might just feel a little more vulnerable due to previous failures and the fixture list now looming.
This week will be a key moment in Liverpool’s title challenge and the next few games could be the ones that make all difference.