Who wins the U.S.-Canada rematch? Goalie confidence, X factors, keys to victory

The 4 Nations Face-Off final is set. A 5-3 win for Canada in Monday’s game against Finland has pushed them through to the championship game, where it will face the United States. The U.S. clinched its spot in the final with a 3-1 win over Canada on Saturday.

If the return match between the two North American rivals is anything like the first contest, hockey fans are in for another treat. That game — which featured three fights in the first nine seconds of play — was heralded by many players as one of the most intense games in which they’d played in their careers.

With the teams set for the final game of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off, let’s explore the players who have been most important to each squad, the X factors for Thursday’s game, and just how confident each nation should be in its goaltender right now.

United States

What we’ve learned so far

All the conversations about what this version of Team USA could achieve has manifested itself in a few ways. Against Finland, the U.S. looked the part of a team that was comfortable playing in a tight-checking game — only to provide the sort of offensive surge with three goals on its first four shots to start the third period.

The performance against Canada further amplified how the squad could rely on its collective talent, capitalizing on mistakes while having the flexibility to withstand a late push.

Team MVP through round robin

Jaccob Slavin. Saying “a Tkachuk” would have made sense, considering Brady and Matthew have combined to score four of America’s nine goals through its first four games. And while their exploits have received quite a bit of attention, there’s an argument to be made for the role Slavin has played in the U.S.’s success.

Sweden defenseman Victor Hedman is the only skater who is averaging more ice time than Slavin during the tournament. Slavin is averaging more than 23 minutes per game, while anchoring a penalty kill that has been perfect through two games, which also speaks to what has allowed the U.S. to succeed within its defensive structure.

X factor: Special teams

Entering the third day of the tournament, there have been only four power-play goals. The U.S. was responsible for scoring two of those goals on five chances. And that’s being done without one of the NHL’s premier power-play quarterbacks in Vancouver Canucks star captain Quinn Hughes, who missed the tournament due to injury.

The ability to capitalize on the power play has been balanced by a penalty kill that’s gone 4-for-4 through two games because of a structure that not only moves with the puck but works to disrupt passing lanes at all times.

Goalie confidence: (9.5/10)

You may have heard; Connor Hellebuyck is another Vezina Trophy away from being the only American to win three. That would place him in a category with Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy, among others.

His strong performance in the regular season has carried over to the 4 Nations so far, with Hellebuyck allowing just two goals total in two games. But even with those two goals allowed, Hellebuyck made a number of saves that either made Finland look listless in its opening game, and leaving Canada frustrated in its inability to consistently take advantage of its high-danger chances in a 3-1 loss.

Canada

What we’ve learned so far

Canada has taken its time finding a rhythm here. Canada was frequently its own worst enemy in the round robin, and those mistakes often proved costly. Canada showed a different confidence in their last game against Finland, which seemed driven by their star players setting a tone.

But Canada can’t just rely on the likes of Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon to find twine against the USA. There are strong role players in Canada’s bottom six who can — and should — have an impact too, whether it’s Sam Bennett adding some punch (literally) or the threat of a Mitch Marner–Anthony Cirelli connection.

And when it comes to Canada’s blue line, it’s not the same without Cale Makar — that was obvious within minutes of him stepping back into the lineup for Monday’s game after missing that first go-around with the USA on Saturday. Jordan Binnington also proved in Monday’s clash why coach Jon Cooper keeps going back to him — Binnington can come through for Canada when it counts.

Team MVP through round robin

Connor McDavid. Now, this is tough, because Sidney Crosby is Canada’s points leader (with five) and Cooper essentially (or actually?) called him a god in Monday’s postgame news conference. And MacKinnon has been excellent, too.

But it’s tough to discount what McDavid has done. He scored the opening goal in their last two games (including the lone marker on Connor Hellebuyck in that first matchup against the Americans), and the way he dominated offensively in Monday’s tilt with Finland was pure magic.

There’s no one who can flip a switch quite like McDavid. If he’s hitting that stride now, that’s everything Canada needs to feel confident ahead of the final.

X factor: Scoring depth

Does Canada have enough of it? They’re about to find out. The USA relied on its role players like Dylan Larkin to win on Saturday.

Canada’s scoring to date has come primarily from its top two lines, and that’s important — critical, even. But Canada can’t be one-dimensional in its attack. There’s enough talent on each line that, when showcased early, can make the USA nervous. Canada has to tap into that mentality more than they have in recent games.

If the top lines are nullified by the USA’s — and vice versa — then victory could come down to who gets the most out of their third and fourth units. And the way Cooper chooses to dole out ice time from puck drop will be telling too, and show what he learned about how these teams matched up in their previous meeting.

Goalie confidence: (7.5/10)

Jordan Binnington is a polarizing figure. Cooper’s determination to stick with him as Canada’s starter throughout this tournament has been met with criticism, confusion and countless questions. His stats at the event have been underwhelming, too (.892 save percentage, 2.60 goals-against average).

But Cooper hasn’t wavered, and Binnington was the best he’s been so far in Canada’s game against Finland.

Now it comes down to whether the Stanley Cup-winning St. Louis Blues backstop can carry that performance over into the final — at least the one he turned in for 55 minutes (giving up two 6-on-5 goals to the Finns in three minutes was a tough look). Timely stops — that’s what Hellebuyck has provided the USA, and it’s what Binnington has increasingly shown he can give to Canada.

Granted, Binnington didn’t get much help offensively from his teammates in that first outing against the Americans, but regardless if that’s the case again on Thursday, Binnington must save his most complete effort for this final bout.