Jeff Passan’s spring training preview: 20 questions as countdown to Opening Day begins

Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training for all 30 teams, and the countdown to Opening Day is on. Between now and April 1, the league and players will contort themselves to avoid the alternating speed bumps and potholes the coronavirus places on all paths forward. Forty-three days of spring training is all that stands between Major League Baseball and its regular season.

Just like it did last year during the regular season, just as other sports are doing right now, baseball will weather its share of COVID-19 diagnoses and move forward. If spring training games are lost, then they’re lost. If teams fall behind, that’s why there’s a six-week preseason. This is not to say baseball is right to do what it’s doing, and it’s not to say that it’s wrong. It’s sports’ Mandalorian existence: This is the way.

With the offseason officially over, and five days before the majority of teams’ first full-squad workouts, it’s the perfect time to answer 20 questions on the 3½ months that have elapsed since the Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series. If you happened to stop paying attention to baseball after October, this is the place for you. And if you kept up with all of the madness and want to better understand what it means and where the sport is going over the remainder of 2021, you’ve found the right spot, too.

So, what happened this winter?

Star shortstop Francisco Lindor was traded to the New York Mets, whose new owner is the richest man in baseball, fired his just-hired general manager and has compounded the Lindor acquisition with a handful of other moves but didn’t land any of the top-four free agents despite showing various levels of interest.

The highest-paid free agent, center fielder George Springer, went to the Toronto Blue Jays for $150 million. No team in baseball guaranteed more to free agents than the $186.3 million spent by the Jays this winter. The next-highest-paid player was Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, who, like DJ LeMahieu, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Turner, Michael Brantley, Didi Gregorius, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman, returned to the team on which he played last year.

Right-hander Trevor Bauer certainly signed the most interesting deal of the winter: a three-year, $102 million contract with the Dodgers that pays him $40 million this year, $45 million in 2022 and includes opt-outs after both seasons. He eschewed the standard longer-term deal sought by high-end free agents to maximize his short-term earnings. More on that later.

The market for Bauer, like that of many free agents, was limited. Spending, as Buster Olney wrote, is down by hundreds of millions compared to recent free-agent classes. Part of that is a weaker class. Part of it is pandemic-related losses. But when five teams (Blue Jays, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Braves) account for more than half of spending, and the bottom teams have spent $2.5 million (Pirates) and $1.5 million (Orioles and Reds), well, that’s not a great sign of health. Oh, and that doesn’t include the Rockies, who haven’t guaranteed a single cent in free agency this winter.

Colorado did, however, trade its star third baseman, Nolan Arenado, to St. Louis for a pittance of a return — and sent $51 million to St. Louis to help cover his salary. The Padres, as they loaded up to challenge the Dodgers, made all the trades: for Blake Snell, then Yu Darvish, then Joe Musgrove. The White Sox hit the trade market early, too, grabbing Lance Lynn to fortify their rotation. Here’s how wild the trade season was: The Yankees and Red Sox actually made a deal with one another.

That’s all?

Well, between the Mets’ firing of Jared Porter and the Angels’ suspension of pitching coach Mickey Callaway, the mistreatment of women in baseball finally is getting just attention. The minor leagues were completely overhauled, with more than 40 affiliates either cut or moved into development leagues and each organization now having Triple-A, Double-A, high-A and low-A teams. The league said it’s trying to deaden the ball — and nobody can possibly predict the effect (or effectiveness) of that. And the cacophony of labor war drums continues to grow after the union rejected MLB’s proposal to move the season back a month. The league said it wanted to allow COVID numbers to drop. The players worried it was a money grab. The league said it would pay full salaries for 162 games. The union said too late, too close to spring training, too bad. And the collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, a day that will cast a shadow over the sport until the ink dries on a new labor deal.

Will there be a designated hitter in the National League this year?

There’s a chance that something happens this spring, whether it’s a rash of pitcher injuries or something else, that prompts NL teams to push for a universal DH, which was used in the 60-game season last year and is expected to be codified in 2022. But because this is a 162-game season, the league does not intend to treat rules in the same willy-nilly, go-with-the-flow fashion this year as it did in 2020, when in the middle of the year it decided to implement seven-inning doubleheaders.

A rule change as fundamental as the DH, sources said, would need widespread support among NL clubs. The players, of course, would be all for it. In two drafts of the health and safety protocols, sources said, the union included the DH’s universal implementation, only for MLB to excise it. The DH remained on the cutting-room floor of the protocols’ final draft.

Here’s the truth, hard as it may be to swallow for purists: The universal DH was here in 2020, and the game didn’t break. It’s coming in 2022, and the game won’t break. If teams implemented it now, they would have enough time to maneuver their rosters accordingly.

Will that happen, though? The bet is no.

How about expanded playoffs?

At one point in discussions about delaying the season, expanded playoffs and universal DH seemed to be tied together, which was silly, because even in the best-case scenario, the DH was worth maybe an extra $20 million to players. Yes, the players could have negotiated their way to a playoff share that would benefit them too, but the union never gave expanded playoffs much of a thought, even after MLB had negotiated a TV deal in hopes of their implementation in 2021.

So, is it possible? Sure. The players would consider it. But any deal would have to compel a group that said yes last year mainly because it was an extra chunk of money to help make up for lost salaries in-season. This year, the players are expected to get their full pay. And because of that, their gain with expanded playoffs is extremely unlikely to compel them to say yes.

Once again, the bet is no.

When will players be vaccinated?

In a phone call with general managers last week, commissioner Rob Manfred said vaccination of players and staff is on the agenda and something the league will do as soon as possible. Just how soon that is, sources said, depends on the country’s supply.

League sources, including front-office executives briefed on the matter, were hopeful that April could bring mass vaccination to baseball. On Tuesday, however, Dr. Anthony Fauci suggested the general public may not be able to be vaccinated until May or June. Whether baseball players or athletes could receive a special dispensation and receive the vaccine early to help in its promotion is unclear.

The issue, of course, is the potentially significant portion of players in baseball who simply will refuse to be vaccinated. In recent months, ESPN asked players, agents and front-office officials what percentage of players they believed would be vaccinated. Most agreed that the number is around 75% — maybe a little less depending on how many previously COVID-positive players see a vaccine as unnecessary because of the virus antibodies already inside of them.

If that 75% number is exceeded, the league and union could potentially agree to reduce the restrictions laid out in the health and safety protocols. The more players get vaccinated, the lower the chance of an outbreak. The lower the chance of an outbreak, the more games get played. The more games get played, the likelier the season runs smoothly.

What’s incentivizing players to get vaccinated?

Aside from increasing amounts of evidence reinforcing its safety, there’s a much more practical element. While the rules at the stadium aren’t likely to change — masking, for example, will be a regular part of everyday life in baseball — what players are allowed to do away from it may depend on the number of people who get vaccinated. This ultimately could be where peer pressure pushes players above 75%.

Right now, when away from the field, players are not allowed to go to indoor restaurants, bars, clubs or any live entertainment venue. They can’t be at a gathering with 10 or more people. They can’t meet with anybody outside of the team while on the road. It’s an extraordinarily restrictive way to live, and if the vaccine is the way to erase it, even the skeptics may change their minds on it.

And until then?

Testing, testing and more testing! Pitchers, catchers and team personnel have spent the past few days quarantined after intake testing. They’ll take every-other-day saliva tests during spring training that are sent to MLB’s Utah lab. The league also has contracted BioReference Laboratories to use point-of-care machines that can deliver results in 15 minutes.

What does this all mean for fans?

All 30 teams will sell spring training tickets in Arizona and Florida, two of the more lax states.

Everything in the regular season depends on the teams’ local ordinances. The Marlins announced plans to allow around 9,300 fans per game — about 25% capacity of Marlins Park. The Rangers announced a 14,000- to 15,000-person crowd for a Big 12 vs. SEC tournament this weekend at Globe Life Field. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said stadiums can hold up to 10% capacity after the Buffalo Bills hosted 7,000 fans in playoff games.

Barring a change in their states’ protocols, baseball’s five California teams and two Illinois teams, on the other hand, are unlikely to see fans by Opening Day.

What about by October? Because clearly the World Series goes through California this year.

That’s a bit presumptuous — but not entirely far-fetched. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. And the Padres are widely regarded as the second best.

If there is a great on-field storyline of the 2021 season, it’s Los Angeles vs. San Diego. The Padres loaded up their rotation via trades, signed versatile Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim and return Fernando Tatis Jr. (with whom they’re talking a mega-extension), Manny Machado, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, Jake Cronenworth, Austin Nola, Tommy Pham and Jurickson Profar, among others. The Dodgers bring back the entirety of their championship core — and added Bauer, the NL Cy Young winner, for good measure.

So if the NL pennant is Southern California’s to lose, what other teams are worth keeping an eye on?

Depends on whether you want to look at this objectively or subjectively.

Based on the win-total projections of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system, FanGraphs, the sabermetrician Clay Davenport and Wynn BET, there are clear tiers this season.

Tier 1: Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Mets — The only teams projected to win 90-plus games by all four.

Tier 2: Braves, Twins, Astros — All average in the 88- to 89-win range.

Tier 3: White Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Nationals, Brewers — Each is seen unanimously as an above-.500 team.

Tier 4: Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Indians, A’s, Cardinals — Average win total is 81 to 82.

Here’s the subjective part: my tiers — with an additional one included.

Tier 1: Dodgers, Padres
Tier 2: Braves, Yankees
Tier 3: White Sox, Mets, Nationals, Blue Jays
Tier 4: Astros, Twins, Rays, Cardinals
Tier 5: A’s, Red Sox, Brewers

Where do Vegas and the projection systems disagree?

Great question, especially for those who might want to wager on over/unders. PECOTA, FanGraphs and Davenport all agree on seven potential bets:

• Over on San Diego at 94.5 (average win total of the projections: 95.7)

• Hard under on Chicago White Sox at 91.5 (86.5)

• Under on Atlanta at 91 (88.1)

• Hard under on St. Louis at 85 (81.1)

• Under on Oakland at 84 (81.3)

• Over on Miami at 67.5 (69.6)

• Hard over on Texas at 66.5 (71.1 — skewed by Davenport’s 80-win projection for Texas)

All of these are subject to change when the rest of the free agents sign, right?

Of course. And there are some good ones left. Almost all the top free agents remaining are pitchers, led by starter Jake Odorizzi and reliever Trevor Rosenthal. The best position player: center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.

Odorizzi, 30, is bound to make a team look very smart. Before last season, when a line drive off the chest and blister issues truncated his campaign, he was a model of consistency, averaging 30 starts and 165 innings over a six-year period. More than anything, teams covet innings in 2021, fearful that pitchers coming off a shortened 2020 could be more susceptible to injuries with standard workloads. A free-agent period that has seen only two veteran free-agent pitchers sign multiyear deals — Bauer for three years and Mike Minor for two in Kansas City — is rough. One in which a pitcher of Odorizzi’s caliber remains unemployed when innings are at such a premium doesn’t make much sense.

Rosenthal is one of a large group of relievers still jobless. While Rosenthal will get a job and should find himself among the better-paid relievers this winter, others are fighting a hard-to-win battle against signing non-guaranteed contracts. Among those still available: Brandon Workman, Shane Greene, Tyler Clippard, Jose Alvarez, Oliver Perez, Brad Boxberger, David Robertson, Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, Oliver Drake, Ryan Tepera, Ian Kennedy, Jesse Chavez, Heath Hembree and Pedro Strop. Also: Roberto Osuna, whose long domestic-violence suspension in 2018 and elbow issues have softened his market.

Bradley is coming off his best offensive season since 2016 and remains a well-above-average center fielder. While he has sought a long-term deal all winter, front-office officials have wondered in recent days whether the market could force him to settle for a one-year deal.

So, in the micro, even though some players did well, free agency wasn’t great. What about the macro?

Consider the Bauer contract. For years, teams have slowly chipped away at the length of contracts given out. The upshot has been obvious: The more one-year deals players sign, the more flooded the market is the next season. The greater the supply, the more wiggle room teams have to squeeze players.

The only players immune to this have been stars — players of Bauer’s ilk. And stars who enter free agency, especially ones like Bauer, who just turned 30, almost always get large, long-term contracts. Teams are willing to pay for the projected down years at the end so they can capture the surplus value at the beginning.

Bauer forwent the biggest overall-dollar package in favor of the biggest per-year contract. On one hand, Bauer is betting on himself, and it’s difficult to criticize anyone for that, so long as he understands the risks and consequences. On the other, the Dodgers jumped at the opportunity to sign Bauer because for marginally more per year than he could have received on a long-term deal, Los Angeles got all the upside of Bauer without having to weather the downside. A dream deal, all for the low, low price of $42.5 million a year.

The Bauer contract is material here because of what free agency’s evolution says about the game today — and about the labor environment in which it operates. In the past, a star player never would have taken a contract like Bauer’s. Maybe that’s because there never has been a star like Bauer. Or maybe because this was the logical conclusion to the league’s successful two-decade-long effort to chip away at free agency, little by little, and hope what works at the bottom eventually wriggles its way to the top.

Free agency always has been about choice, so for Bauer’s to proceed as it did is, to the union, the outcome that fundamentally matters. And the average-annual-value bump could have the opposite effect of the shorter term; it sets a new ceiling that other players can point to. Still, free agency — and specifically its degradation — is at the heart of the labor animus that exists between the league and the union.

And it is not an exaggeration, either, to call the status of baseball in 2022 tenuous. Yeah, yeah, let’s get through the 2021 season first, Chicken Little. I get it. But here is something you should get, too: Typically, labor negotiations in baseball start about a year before the CBA expires. Right now, it is 9½ months until the deadline, and the sides haven’t had a single bargaining session.

Which can be worked through. If there’s anything about this relationship that’s clear, it’s that deadlines tend to spur them into action. And as much as MLB leadership might not like the union’s and vice versa, their personal feelings about one another shouldn’t be the sort of thing that waylays something as important as these negotiations.

From the players’ side, it will be about free agency and teams’ anti-competitive tendencies and a potential redistribution of money to enrich younger players, seeing as teams are making it clear they’re loath to pay older ones. And for MLB, while the economics of the current deal have behooved them, and always will be front and center, the concerns about the game’s future are serious enough to enlist a group that will make the improvement of the on-field product a priority.

There are dozens of warning signs about why the MLBPA and MLB are on a labor collision course the game hasn’t seen in a quarter-century. It’s not time to worry. Not yet. If talks don’t happen, if they do and are a mess, if they take too long with no substantive progress — yeah, then, by all means, worry away.

What’s that going to look like?

In the absence of an agreement before the World Series is over, here is one potential scenario — perhaps, sources said, the likeliest.

November: Free agency begins … and teams don’t sign anyone. Perhaps there is an odd deal here or there, but with no sense of whether there’s going to be an agreement, let alone a 2022 season, the market freezes.

Dec. 1, 2021: MLB teams lock out players. As much talk as there has been of a player strike, the timing of the collective bargaining agreement’s expiration signals a lockout is the likelier end result.

December, January and beyond: chaos.

Both sides recognize how bad a labor stoppage would be for the sport. The fan backlash, the instability, the potential loss of revenue, the long-term consequences of fighting, the potential loss of games. Regardless of what the players want to win back or how much MLB wants to tighten its power grip, baseball shutting down would be a disaster. Everyone knows it. By the end of the year, it will be clear whether these facts matter.

Can you please say something not depressing?

The weather is bound to get warmer.

OK, troll. Get back to baseball. Who are some breakout hitters?

Warning for this question and the next: These lists are subject to change between now and Opening Day. There will be significantly more data — especially on exit velocities and spin rates, which don’t necessarily have linear relationships with excellence but do often correlate with success — and thus more who make or don’t make the cut.

• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels: Even as he tries to return to the mound following Tommy John surgery, his bat is primed to take a leap forward.

• Adalberto Mondesi, Kansas City: He was arguably the best player in baseball last September. And it wasn’t entirely fluky. Here’s the list of players with better exit velos than him that month: Tatis, Ronald Acuña Jr., Travis d’Arnaud, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers.

• Juan Soto, Washington: Yes, he’s a superstar. This is the year he becomes a supernova.

• Keston Hiura, Milwaukee: He’s too good of a hitter to have as bad of a year as he did in 2020. Same goes for Yelich.

• Franmil Reyes, Cleveland: Want a nice little value play? Reyes to lead MLB in home runs at +3000.

• Daulton Varsho, Arizona: A catcher/center fielder, he’s got unique versatility, and his bat is ready to take off.

How about breakout pitchers?

• John Means, Baltimore: This is a bet on stuff (his fastball jumped 2 mph last year), handedness (he’s a lefty who sits mid-90s) and regression to the mean (nearly 22% of the fly balls he allowed last year went for home runs). Among all those things, his strikeouts and his lack of walks, Means, who will be 28 in April, has all the tools to be a late bloomer.

• Luis Patiño, Tampa Bay: The biggest return in the Snell trade, Patiño will play the entire season at 21. He’ll do so under the watchful eye of Rays manager Kevin Cash and pitching coach Kyle Snyder, and in a staff that even by its standards will use pitchers differently than we’ve ever seen.

• Tejay Antone, Cincinnati: A complete spin play. Antone’s fastball RPMs are in the 98th percentile and his curveball’s the 95th. The question isn’t about his stuff. It’s whether the Reds use him as a starter or reliever.

• Alex Reyes, St. Louis: Once upon a time, he was a top-five prospect. If he can stay healthy, he will dominate regardless of his role. Such is the case when you’ve got a curveball with nearly 11 inches of vertical movement compared to average — a number second only to Bauer.

• Brad Keller, Kansas City: For all the hype about Daniel Lynch and Asa Lacy, Keller is only 25 and has two of the filthiest pitches in baseball: a fastball with nine inches of horizontal movement and a soft-contact-inducing slider. He may not strike out many batters, but that’s because he doesn’t need to.

Who missed last season that we’ll see this year?

There are two sets of players here: Those who opted out of the season, and those who missed it because of injuries.

The opt-out players expected to return include: Stroman, Dodgers starter David Price, Giants catcher Buster Posey, Brewers center fielder Lorenzo Cain, White Sox prospect Michael Kopech, Rockies outfielder Ian Desmond, Nationals starter Joe Ross and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, and Felix Hernandez, who signed a minor league deal with Baltimore.

Those who didn’t play all year, or were limited to a few games, comprise a star-studded list.

Red Sox ace Chris Sale and Mets flamethrower Noah Syndergaard are working back from Tommy John surgery, with Syndergaard ahead of Sale’s pace. Another standout pitcher, Atlanta’s Mike Soroka, is recovering from a torn Achilles and may not be back by Opening Day but will play a vital role in the Braves’ rotation.

The Yankees are hoping a pair of Tommy John returnees can bolster their rotation: Luis Severino and Jameson Taillon, the latter of whom they acquired in a trade with Pittsburgh. Another Yankees starter who barely pitched in 2020: Corey Kluber.

Fresh off signing a $245 million contract, Stephen Strasburg threw five innings for Washington before shutting down and needing surgery to repair a nerve issue in his wrist. Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez had a similar year: only nine plate appearances before a season-ending knee procedure.

Perhaps the most welcome return of all: Trey Mancini, the Orioles’ 28-year-old outfielder, who was diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer and spent the season undergoing chemotherapy. He is now cancer-free and will join Baltimore for full-squad workouts.

Who’s going to win Rookie of the Year?

There are so many good choices — including four who actually received Rookie of the Year votes last year. Because of the shortened season, MLB adjusted eligibility rules, and Atlanta’s Ian Anderson, Miami’s Sixto Sanchez, Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes and Baltimore’s Ryan Mountcastle all are second-time-eligible — and not at all bad choices.

Also eligible: Postseason hero and pop-song-inspiration Randy Arozarena, whose 99 regular-season plate appearances leave him 31 short of exhausting his eligibility. He is the AL favorite, though if shortstop Wander Franco joins him with the Rays early in the season, he could stake his claim. Franco is Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1 prospect and the consensus best minor leaguer in baseball.

Others in the AL worth monitoring: Seattle’s Jarred Kelenic, though he’s likely to get service-timed; Chicago slugger Andrew Vaughn, same; Minnesota’s Alex Kirilloff, if he can get regular playing time; Detroit starters Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal; White Sox second baseman Nick Madrigal; Texas third baseman Josh Jung; Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie; and two Kansas City prospects who could reach the big leagues but also might be better bets for 2022: infielder Bobby Witt Jr. and left-hander Daniel Lynch.

Anderson, Sanchez and Hayes are all excellent choices in the NL, along with a pair of center fielders (Atlanta’s Cristian Pache and St. Louis’ Dylan Carlson), Cincinnati catcher Tyler Stephenson and, if the Padres’ coterie of pitchers gets waylaid by injuries, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who might be the best pitching prospect in baseball.

What are you looking forward to with baseball’s return?

Well, how polite of you to ask. The first 10 things that popped into my head, in no particular order:

Michael Nelson Trout.

Regular-season games with fans in stands.

Nolan Arenado fielding a ball at third base and conjuring memories of Scott Rolen.

Hitters waving at Devin Williams’ changeup.

The Home Run Derby. I’m not even a big Home Run Derby guy, but if it’s being held, that means the season is going well.

David Fletcher memes.

Jacob deGrom throwing sliders that have a harder average velocity than half the starters in the big leagues’ fastballs.

Bat flips.

Fernando Tatis Jr. running. From first to third. From third to home. From shortstop to second base. Wherever. The hair and the speed are a dynamic duo.

Drew Robinson’s return.