Bill Connelly’s mega offseason previews: Conference USA West

7:30 AM ET

Since UAB’s return from a self-imposed death penalty, the Conference USA West title has run through Birmingham, Alabama, with Bill Clark’s Blazers winning three titles in a row. Will anything change now that they return most of last year’s contributors?

Like the Alamo or Pearl Brewery, hope might live in San Antonio. UTSA took a healthy step forward in Jeff Traylor’s first season, and SP+ projections suggest UAB’s Nov. 20 trip to the AlamoDome could determine the division champ.

Let’s take a deep dive into how things might play out in the C-USA West.

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series began with the Conference USA East.

After going a combined 2-34 from 2017 to 2019, UTEP jumped to 3-5 in 2020. Sure, the wins were against two FCS schools and a dreadful ULM. Still! Three wins!

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 128th

Projected record: 3-9 (2-6)

Likely wins*: none
Relative tossups (5): Bethune-Cookman (SP+ win probability: 64%), at NMSU (60%), New Mexico (45%), ODU (36%), Louisiana Tech (35%)
Likely losses (7): Rice (23%), at North Texas (17%), at Southern Miss (15%), UTSA (15%), at FAU (14%), at UAB (7%), at Boise State (2%)

* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative tossups are all the games in between.

What we learned about UTEP in 2020

Dana Dimel isn’t satisfied. Despite improving in the win column, Dimel seemed to know his program’s trajectory didn’t look great and replaced veteran coordinators Mike Canales (offense) and Mike Cox (defense) with, well, new old names in Dave Warner and Bradley Dale Peveto.

UTEP wants to be physical. The Miners were run-heavy on standard downs, choosing physicality over creativity. That likely won’t change with Warner, a former Mark Dantonio assistant, calling plays. Running back Deion Hankins had his moments, and when UTEP ran the ball, quarterback Gavin Hardison hit wideout Jacob Cowing (16.9 yards per catch) over the top, too. With 10 offensive starters returning, this formula could work a little more frequently than it did last year.

What we didn’t learn about UTEP in 2020

Whether there will ever be enough talent. UTEP doesn’t get many of the recruiting benefits typically associated with having “Texas” in your school name. Backs Hankins and Josh Fields were well-regarded, as were sophomore defensive tackle Jalen Rudolph, linebacker Jerome Wilson Jr. and nickel McKel Broussard. Plus, Dimel added a solid cornerback in Kansas State transfer Walter Neil Jr. But signing three-star recruits is still more “exception” than “rule” for the program, and the two SP+ top-100 teams the Miners played last fall outscored them by a combined 111-24. Dimel is a patient man with a physical, experienced squad. You still need some upside, too.

UTEP’s history in one chart

1. Robert Dobbs’ 1967 squad easily was the program’s best. The Miners went 7-2-1, beating Ole Miss in the Sun Bowl — their last bowl win — and losing to Arizona State and the best Wyoming team ever by a combined three points.

2. After a run of destitution, Bob Stull brought the Miners to 7-4 in 1987, then 10-3 in 1988. Stull left to take the Missouri job, but he came back and served as AD in 1998.

3. UTEP’s last win over a current power conference team: 24-17 over a 1-10 TCU in 1997. Of course, the Horned Frogs were in the WAC at the time; the Miners’ last win over a power-conference-at-the-time program? The aforementioned win over Ole Miss.

4. Despite rough stretches, the team remained a home draw. As recently as Mike Price’s 8-4 run in 2004, the Miners averaged 47,899 per game for home attendance.

5. UTEP has enjoyed one winning season since 2005, and even with last year’s victories, has won five games in four years. 2019 home attendance: 14,155 per game.

Few programs dealt with more turnover, both in the offseason and during the fall campaign, than Skip Holtz’s Bulldogs, and they were lucky to even go 5-5. Bounce-back coming?

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 118th

Projected record: 4-8 (3-5)

Likely wins: none
Relative tossups (6): at UTEP (65% SP+ win probability), Southeastern Louisiana (60%), Charlotte (55%), North Texas (45%), at ODU (45%), Southern Miss (42%)
Likely losses (6): at Rice (31%), UTSA (31%), SMU (19%), at UAB (16%), at Mississippi State (7%), at NC State (7%)

SP+ doesn’t completely comprehend last year’s roster instability and could be underestimating the Bulldogs. Tech fans who have really enjoyed their team’s seven-year bowling streak better hope so, anyway.

What we learned about Louisiana Tech in 2020

The floor’s never far away. For so many football programs, pushing the boulder up the hill is only part of the battle; at any moment, the boulder could run back over you.

The Bulldogs dealt with massive turnover on defense, then had to constantly shuffle both their skill corps and offensive line in season. The result: a No. 113 SP+ ranking and a .500 record that was nearly worse — the Bulldogs were outgained significantly per-play in three of their wins. The offense was neither consistent nor explosive, and with youngsters like safety Bee Jay Williamson, corner Cedric Woods and linebacker Tyler Grubbs, first-year defensive coordinator David Blackwell played things pretty conservatively. This just wasn’t a very good team.

What we didn’t learn about Louisiana Tech in 2020

Whether last year’s struggles will last. The Tech roster is more loaded with former three-star recruits than just about any in C-USA. The secondary is particularly high on potential and has the experience it lacked last year.

We don’t yet have a complete list of Tech super seniors who intend to play in 2021, but quarterback Luke Anthony is likely to be one of them, provided he recovers fully from a nasty late-season leg injury. Appalachian State transfer Marcus Williams is a great addition at running back, and the offensive line should improve. My guess is that simple continuity will benefit this team significantly, but last season certainly raised questions about the upside on the roster.

Louisiana Tech’s history in one chart

1. How good was Terry Bradshaw? Good enough to go No. 1 in the NFL draft despite playing in the small-school Gulf States Conference. He still ranks sixth on Tech’s career passing yardage list.

2. Led by future Hall of Fame defensive end Fred Dean, the Bulldogs went 8-2 in their first top-division season and beat five Div. 1 teams by an average of 21 points.

3. After a short stay in 1-AA, Tech moved back up with another future Hall of Famer in tow: offensive tackle Willie Roaf. They went 16-4-3 in 1990-91.

4. Troy Edwards’ 21-catch, 405-yard performance in the 1998 season opener — against defending national champion Nebraska, no less — remains the single-game gold standard for college football receivers.

5. In 2013, Tech moved to Conference USA and hired Holtz. Since a first-year reset, the Bulldogs have bowled for seven straight years, winning six.

UNT basically played two different seasons last fall — it went 2-3, dealt with more than a month’s worth of postponements and cancellations because of COVID-19 related issues, then went 2-3 again.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 106th

Projected record: 5-7 (4-4)

Likely wins (2): Northwestern State (92% SP+ win probability), UTEP (83%)
Relative tossups (6): at Louisiana Tech (55%), at FIU (52%), at Rice (42%), UTSA (42%), at Southern Miss (41%), Marshall (39%)
Likely losses (4): UAB (34%), at SMU (19%), Liberty (17%), at Missouri (15%)

Seth Littrell took defensive coordinator Phil Bennett out of mothballs — he hadn’t coached since 2017 — in an attempt to save a crumbling defense. With six relative tossups on the schedule, any traction Bennett builds could flip a few games.

What we learned about UNT in 2020

Littrell missed his window (for now). Two years ago, Littrell was one of the hottest up-and-comers in the coaching market, coming off of back-to-back nine-win seasons. But his Mean Green have gone a combined 8-14 since and fallen from 65th to 110th in SP+. His name is now on some hot-seat lists.

The former P5 offensive coordinator still fields a dangerous offense. Quarterback Austin Aune has an experienced line in front of him, an excellent pair of running backs in DeAndre Torrey and Oscar Adaway III and lovely big-play receiving options in fellow sophomores Deonte Simpson and Jyaire Shorter. Losing soon-to-be NFL slot receiver Jaelon Darden hurts, but UNT will score. If recent history’s any indication, though, opponents will score more.

What we didn’t learn about UNT in 2020

Whether Littrell will ever field a good defense. UNT seems to have what it needs on D: good, young pass-rushers (Gabriel Murphy, Grayson Murphy), a mountain at nose tackle (330-pound Dion Novil), well-rounded linebackers (Larry Nixon III, KD Davis), a play-making CB (Quinn Whitlock). But it had these things last year and ranked 121st in defensive SP+. The Mean Green only once reached 91st under Littrell. Can the aggressive Bennett unlock the potential of this unit? Are his days as an effective DC long passed?

North Texas’ history in one chart

1. Before he was winning Super Bowls in Pittsburgh and saying, “Hey kid, catch!” in commercials, Mean Joe Green was an all-Missouri Valley tackle leading North Texas to a combined 23-5-1 record. They peaked at 18th in SP+ in 1967.

2. After bottoming out in 1972, North Texas hired Hayden Fry in 1973. By 1977-78, it was 18-4 with back-to-back top-25 SP+ rankings.

3. Things fell apart quickly after Fry left for Iowa, and money issues prompted a drop to FCS. The Mean Green were only decent at that level, but when others jumped back to FBS in the ’90s, they followed. They’re still searching for Fry-level success.

4. From 2001-04 under Darrell Dickey, UNT won four Sun Belt titles and played in four New Orleans Bowls.

5. Since Dickey’s run, UNT has enjoyed only a couple of successful seasons. Littrell had something going for a minute; does he have another run in him?

Mike Bloomgren’s third season in charge was brief but promising: the Owls went 2-3 with two tight losses and improved to 103rd in SP+, their highest ranking since 2014.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 103rd

Projected record: 6-6 (4-4)

Likely wins (3): Texas Southern (99% SP+ win probability), at UTEP (77%), Louisiana Tech (69%)
Relative tossups (5): at Charlotte (58%), North Texas (58%), Southern Miss (55%), WKU (53%), Houston (32%)
Likely losses (4): at UTSA (33%), at UAB (26%), at Arkansas (12%), at Texas (4%)

Rice starts the season with three of its five most likely losses (at Arkansas, Houston, at Texas). Survive that stretch with confidence intact, and the last two months could be exciting.

What we learned about Rice in 2020

Brian Smith is figuring things out in a hurry. The former Michigan DB coach inherited a defense that ranked 125th in defensive SP+, improved it to 96th in 2019, then 54th in 2020. The Owls forced teams behind schedule, blitzed from every angle and took full advantage of an exciting, deep secondary.

Said exciting secondary returns everyone, plus 2019 contributor George Nyakwol. Sophomore Andrew Bird is one of C-USA’s best cornerbacks, and just about the only guy who isn’t returning is star linebacker Blaze Alldredge, who transferred to Missouri.

What we didn’t learn about Rice in 2020

Whether the offensive identity matches the talent. Bloomgren was Stanford’s offensive coordinator, which hints heavily at what he wants to do: run the ball, play with physicality and probably get tight ends involved. TE Jordan Myers fulfilled that last part, but the Owls ranked 105th in rushing success rate, falling behind schedule before quarterback Mike Collins tried to bail them out on passing downs.

Collins ended up with solid stats despite the lack of a run game. He departs, leaving either JoVoni Johnson, Wiley Green or a newcomer (Weber State transfer Jake Constantine, perhaps?) in charge. Just about everyone else is back, but more passing on early downs might be the best strategy.

Rice’s history in one chart

1. Rice won four SWC titles and with four AP top-10 finishes under Jess Neely, the last of each coming in 1957. The Owls suffered losing seasons in four of his last five seasons, and he retired from coaching in 1966.

2. “But why, some say, the moon? Why choose this as our goal? … Why does Rice play Texas?“

3. In the SWC’s free-wheeling, cheating-and-sanctions heyday, it’s safe to say one team wasn’t cheating, at least not well. Rice averaged just 1.9 wins per year from 1981-89.

4. Let us pause to appreciate the all-time absurdity of the 1994 SWC “title” race. With 10-0-1 Texas A&M banned from the postseason, five teams with 4-3 conference records shared the title, a list that included 5-6 Rice.

5. David Bailiff’s Owls won just 10 games from 2009-11 and started 2012 just 2-5. But they ripped off five straight wins to finish the season, then won 10 games and the C-USA title in 2013. The rally was short-lived, but fierce. Are we witnessing the start of another rally?

USM’s Jay Hopson resigned under pressure just one game into 2020. It only got slightly better from there: the Golden Eagles went 3-7.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 101st

Projected record: 6-6 (4-4)

Likely wins (3): UTEP (85% SP+ win probability), Grambling (80%), FIU (66%)
Relative tossups (6): North Texas (59%), at Louisiana Tech (58%), at South Alabama (56%), at MTSU (55%), at Rice (45%), UAB (37%)
Likely losses (3): at UTSA (34%), Troy (31%), at Alabama (1%)

They have averaged six wins per year over the past four, so a six-win projection sounds about right, yeah?

What we learned about Southern Miss in 2020

It takes a village (of head coaches). Hopson lasted one game, and interim Scottie Walden lasted four before leaving for Austin Peay. Interim No. 2, Tim Billings, ran out the clock, then gave way to permanent successor Will Hall, the former Tulane offensive coordinator and Division II head coach (and Tupelo FireAnts quarterback in the NIFL!).

To summarize: Southern Miss’ returning players had four head coaches in about a three-month span last fall. Not great for culture or morale.

Frank Gore Jr. is indeed a Frank Gore. While JUCO transfer Jason Brownlee was USM’s leading receiver, the most eye-catching newcomer was Gore, who rushed for 708 yards and flashed both explosiveness and physicality as a freshman. A Will Hall offense is a fun rushing offense, and there’s no reason to think Gore and sophomore quarterback Trey Lowe III (or whoever beats him out) won’t thrive together for the next couple of years.

What we didn’t learn about Southern Miss in 2020

How long it might take Hall (and more specifically, defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong) to right the ship. A former Hall assistant at the Div. II level, Armstrong served as Louisiana’s ILB coach recently, and his first DC job is a doozy. USM was dreadfully inefficient last year and has, in two seasons, fallen from 27th to 94th in defensive SP+.

Experience won’t be an issue, at least. The Golden Eagles return nearly every defensive contributor, plus two 2019 starters who missed last season, and add four transfers, three from the SEC. But while the offense has potential star power, it’s hard to see much of it on D.

Southern Miss’ history in one chart

1. Southern Miss has 35 all-time wins over current SEC teams, but the 1981 campaign might have been its masterpiece: it beat No. 15 Mississippi State and No. 20 Florida State and tied a top-10 Alabama.

2. Brett Favre’s career stats (1987-90): 7,695 passing yards, a 52% completion rate, 52 touchdowns, 34 interceptions and one massive upset of No. 6 Florida State.

3. From 1994-2007, coach Jeff Bower led the Golden Eagles to 14 straight winning seasons and 10 bowls, but he somehow never won 10 games in a season.

4. The Eagles finally got their breakthrough under Larry Fedora in 2011, going 12-2 with a C-USA title … then went 1-23 in the next two years after Fedora left.

5. Hall isn’t inheriting a 1-23 program, but he’s still inheriting one that has regressed in three of the past four years.

In Jeff Traylor’s first season as coach, the Roadrunners improved by three wins and 31 spots in SP+, scared BYU and UAB and reached their second bowl in history. Solid start!

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 87th

Projected record: 8-4 (5-3)

Likely wins (7): Lamar (98% SP+ win probability), at UTEP (85%), UNLV (84%), MTSU (76%), at Louisiana Tech (69%), Rice (67%), Southern Miss (66%)
Relative tossups (4): at North Texas (58%), at WKU (53%), UAB (48%), at Illinois (40%)
Likely losses (1): at Memphis (24%)

UTSA is projected behind UAB, but the Roadrunners get the Blazers at home in a coin-flip game that could decide the division.

What we learned about UTSA in 2020

There’s a reason why Traylor got the job. From a résumé perspective, it was a bit of an odd hire. Traylor was regarded as a solid Texas recruiter, and he won three state titles at Gilmer (Texas) High School, but most of his college coaching experience came on the staff of guys about to get fired.

Few first-year coaches proved more in 2020, though: UTSA improved from 116th to 94th in offensive SP+ and from 128th to 96th on defense. The offensive depth chart was constantly shuffled, and four different QBs attempted 30+ dropbacks, but the Roadrunners still showed big-play potential — primarily from dynamite running back Sincere McCormick (1,467 yards) and X-receiver Zakhari Franklin. Meanwhile, the defense was a massive pain to pass against, both because of a diverse pass rush and an aggressive secondary.

Traylor signed a highly touted recruiting class, and with double-digit super-seniors electing to return to the Alamodome in 2021, most of the reasons for their improvement, from McCormick and Franklin to corners Corey Mayfield Jr. and Tariq Woolen to ace blitzers Jamal Ligon and Trevor Harmanson, will be back.

What we didn’t learn about UTSA in 2020

Whether Traylor’s different from the last guy. It’s hard not to notice parallels with the last UTSA head coach. Frank Wilson took over for Larry Coker in 2016, and UTSA went from 7-17 in Coker’s last two years to 12-12 under Wilson. UTSA’s recruiting rankings were solid, too. But in Wilson’s last two years, they were right back to 7-17 and in the SP+ 120s. Does Traylor have the staying power Wilson lacked?

UTSA’s history in one chart

1. After a single 4-6 season at the FCS level, UTSA made its FBS debut in 2012 with Coker in charge.

2. The Roadrunners started out OK, but fizzled after Coker’s initial recruiting classes departed. He resigned after a 3-9 campaign in 2015.

3. Frank Wilson’s first season brought UTSA’s first bowl appearance, a 23-20 loss to New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl. Wilson won six games in each of his first two seasons, peaking at 80th in SP+ in 2017.

4. After recording 17.5 TFLs in 2017, Marcus Davenport went 14th overall in the 2018 NFL draft. He was UTSA’s first first-rounder and second overall draftee.

5. The Traylor era started well — the Roadrunners earned their second bowl bid, a 31-24 loss to Louisiana in the First Responder Bowl. Let’s see what happens next.

Bill Clark has coached five seasons at UAB. The Blazers have improved dramatically in three of them, qualified for bowls in four and won Conference USA in two. Goodness.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 73rd

Projected record: 7-5 (6-2)

Likely wins (6): UTEP (93% SP+ win probability), vs. Jacksonville State (88%), Louisiana Tech (84%), Rice (74%), FAU (71%), at North Texas (66%)
Relative tossups (5): at Southern Miss (63%), at UTSA (52%), at Marshall (50%), at Tulane (38%), Liberty (35%)
Likely losses (1): at Georgia (6%)

UAB is the most proven entity in the C-USA this year, and the schedule features only one truly likely loss. It would be shocking if this wasn’t another big season for the green and gold.

What we learned about UAB in 2020

The defense’s ceiling is even higher than we thought. In three seasons, the Blazers improved from 105th to 45th to 28th to ninth in defensive SP+. They were sixth in yards per play allowed and first in success rate allowed, and they thrived in the red zone to boot.

They’re now scheduled to bring back nine starters, 10 if you include corner Starling Thomas V, who missed 2020 with injury. Four returnees earned all-conference honors in 2020, led by linebacker/tackling machine Kristopher Moll. Hitting ninth again might be difficult, but there’s no reason to think this won’t again be the conference’s single-best unit.

What we didn’t learn about UAB in 2020

Whether the offense will ever totally come around. UAB’s offense avoided three-and-outs and sacks and served its primary focus — give the defense good field position — pretty well, but the Blazers still ranked just 92nd in offensive SP+. It would have been at least a little better if quarterback Tyler Johnston III hadn’t missed four games with injury, but Johnston now loses his best running back, his two best receivers and all-conference tackle Sidney Wells.

In a year in which there’s far less turnover than usual, this feels problematic, but the Blazers do still have some explosive pieces, like junior wideout Trea Shropshire and second-time freshman RB DeWayne McBride. If the O can even get to a top-75 level, that will make UAB a runaway conference favorite, but it hasn’t ranked that high since 2010.

UAB’s history in one chart

After a brief FCS startup, UAB joined FBS in 1996, but made just one bowl in its first 19 seasons.
Clark, Jacksonville State’s former coach, came aboard in 2014, and the Blazers immediately jumped from 2-10 to 6-6.
Despite the improvement, the school announced it was ditching football at the end of 2014.
After massive outcry, UAB quickly announced its plans to bring football back. Clark (who somehow hadn’t left) crafted a brand new roster, and the Blazers won eight games in their first year back, then won 11 games and their first conference title in 2018.
Now winners of two of three C-USA titles, the Blazers are scheduled to move into an on-campus home, Protective Stadium, this fall. To truly live, UAB Football first had to die.