We have years of watching Juan Soto bash home runs, win awards and obliterate benchmarks, but maybe the most fun will be in seeing how he invades the thoughts and intent of opposing pitchers.
He’s only 22 years old; with intense smiles and subtle sneers, his face betrays how absurdly often he diagnoses the pitcher’s plan against him, how he correctly anticipates particular pitches. Even when he doesn’t swing, you can see in his shuffle in the batter’s box and his stare to the mound the great competitive arrogance he has.
Already he possesses all the elements of the best hitters. The ability to make contact — and when he hits the ball, he typically hits it very hard. He also has developed a unique understanding of how opponents plan to get him out, which aids him in making that contact and in driving the ball with power. He rarely chases pitches out of the strike zone.
A special hitter like Soto deserves a special statistic that can reflect those layers of skill and understanding.
Batting average doesn’t cut it because it doesn’t show the acute nature of his plate discipline. There have been some great high-average hitters who are hackers. Slugging percentage can’t really demonstrate his ability to consistently put the ball in play with authority. You can have a really good slugging percentage while also having a ton of missed swings. His home run ratio and exit velocity, as good as they are, don’t really show how efficient he is with his swing, especially in an era filled with a lot of hitters who generate gobs of missed swings.
So we give you the “Crush Quotient” — a relatively simple statistic that reflects Soto’s stunning mastery of what Ted Williams called the science of hitting. The Crush Quotient is this: Total bases divided by the number of swings a hitter takes. If you are like Barry Bonds or Mike Trout or Soto and you know you’re probably going to get very few pitches to hit in the strike zone, you need to do damage when you do get them. A high ranking in the Crush Quotient reveals a special set of skills.
Paul Hembekides, ESPN researcher, applied this to results generated for hitters 21 and younger since 1988, the year in which pitch-to-pitch data began to be compiled. And guess who wound up in the top 5? A couple of the most dynamic young players currently in the majors:
Total bases per 100 swings
1. Albert Pujols — 30.6
2. Mike Trout — 29.7
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. — 28.7
4. Alex Rodriguez — 27.9
5. Juan Soto — 27.7
The 60-game 2020 season generated a relatively small sample size, but most of the hitters at the top of the leaderboard in Crush Quotient (Hembo used 200 swings as a minimum) are the ones you might expect:
1. Juan Soto — 35.8
2. Wil Myers — 33.4
3. Mookie Betts — 32.6
4. Mike Trout — 32
5. DJ LeMahieu — 31.4
If you look at all players since the start of 2018, using 2,000 swings as a minimum, here’s your top nine in Crush Quotient:
1. Mike Trout — 31.9
2. Mookie Betts — 31.9
3. Alex Bregman — 30.5
4. Christian Yelich — 29.9
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. — 28.7
6. Mitch Garver — 28.5
7. Juan Soto — 27.7
8. Michael Brantley — 27.6
9. DJ LeMahieu — 27.2
The Rendon Effect … for Trout
Some analysts don’t believe that the presence of a particular hitter behind another makes much of a difference, but Angels manager Joe Maddon does.
“I believe in protection,” he said the other day, in discussing his choice of where to place Trout in the lineup.
Maddon knows firsthand that in the other dugout, and in the minds of the opposing catcher and pitcher, the conversation about pitch selection is built around the context of who is in the on-deck circle. Someone batting in front of Trout will likely benefit — in the form of more fastballs — from the looming specter of the perennial MVP candidate coming up next. Because opponents are often willing to pitch around Trout, the danger posed by the guy hitting behind Trout is incredibly important.
That Trout had Anthony Rendon hitting behind him last year was difference-making. Last season, 52% of pitches thrown to Trout were in the strike zone — the highest percentage in his career.
What follows is a list of the batters who had the most plate appearances batting behind Trout, year to year, in every season since he became a regular — and the percentage of pitches in the strike zone in those games:
The increase in Trout’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone from 2019 to 2020 was the most significant for any player in the majors — the Rendon Effect, as Hembekides noted.
So, is the baseball different?
This week in the ongoing saga of the baseball composition: the Padres’ Blake Snell told reporters how the laces on the 2021 baseball seem different to him — thicker, he says — allowing him to more easily dig in with his fingertips and spin breaking balls.
“It’s definitely a different ball,” he said.
After reading that, I reached out to a number of teams and heard similar reviews: That the ball is different, that the seams are more pronounced. I also mentioned the Snell comments to a pitcher who happened to be scheduled to work on the same day. He excitedly and jokingly texted that he intended to deploy his old college breaking ball. At the end of the day, however, he reported that the baseballs didn’t seem any different to him from the 2020 baseball — and that two pitchers who worked in the same game felt the same way.
It should not be this way. There should not be such radically disparate views about the game’s central piece of equipment. There should not be questions about whether they are using an old ball or a new ball. In the next collective bargaining agreement, you would hope there is room for a collaborative process so that the baseball is not ripe for as many conspiracy theories as the Loch Ness Monster.
And by the way: If the laces are actually more pronounced and the baseball is a little less aerodynamic and softer, that bodes very well for pitchers who would rather throw breaking balls rather than fastballs. It does not bode well for hitters — or for offense.
On Wednesday’s podcast, David Schoenfield and Hembekides broke down the possible ramifications of more substantive seams on the baseball.
High praise for Pache
With Ender Inciarte banged up this spring, Cristian Pache is more likely to make the Braves’ Opening Day roster. But he may well be on the team on his own merits. Pache is a high-end defender who reminds his manager, Brian Snitker, of a 10-time Gold Glove winner: Andruw Jones.
“The range, the speed, the jumps … he’s just a really talented outfielder,” Snitker said. “I remember he caught a ball in Tampa against the Yankees last year — when the ball was hit, I was actually watching to see if we were going to be lined up on cutoffs and relays. The next thing you know I look up and he’s making the play.”
Snitker loves how Pache throws, lining up well and getting backspin on the ball “so it’ll carry really well.”
Greene’s rare patience
It is not common to see the youngest players drawing walks early in spring training. Usually, excitement and at least a dollop of anxiety can bulldoze any plan. But the Tigers’ Riley Greene is not your typical youngster. Selected fifth overall in the 2019 draft out of Paul J. Hagerty High School in Oviedo, Florida, Greene drew a couple of walks in his first plate appearances.
“He’s been really impressive in camp that he hasn’t been overly excitable,” Tigers manager AJ Hinch said. “His demeanor, his actions all speak to a more mature hitter than his age and experience level indicates. He has a big swing, and he’s trying to do damage. He’s not a guy who is just trying to touch the ball. But he doesn’t panic with two strikes. He doesn’t worry about looking bad if maybe he’s chased a pitch or had a bad pitch called on him. He’s pretty good at keeping the at-bat in a pitch-by-pitch competition with the pitcher. He’s not overwhelmed.”
Hinch says he has looked for opportunities to put pressure on Greene, such as inserting him into the lineup against the Yankees’ “A lineup” against Gerrit Cole.
“A little bit to see how he’d change his demeanor — [and] it hasn’t changed a bit,” Hinch said. “It’s been unflappable.”
In his first taste of pro ball in 2019, Greene collected 22 walks in 57 games.
Noteworthy
Pete Alonso continues to demonstrate adjustments he made after his 2020 struggles, showing more patience and a refined ability to drive the ball through the middle of the field. … For Scott Kazmir, it’s the velocity that has always been the telltale sign. On Friday, his fastball was clocked in the 91-92 mph range through a scoreless inning for the Giants. The 37-year-old has not pitched in the big leagues since 2016. … There continues to be enormous excitement in the Angels’ camp about how great Shohei Ohtani looks — pitching and hitting. Within a Baseball Tonight interview with Trout the other day, he was asked about the potential impact of Ohtani. He mentioned some possible statistical parameters — 10 or more wins on the mound, 30 or more home runs at the plate. … Aroldis Chapman is likely to use the splitter he started to develop last year with more frequency in 2021, especially against right-handed hitters. … Spring training results can never be taken at face value, but Joc Pederson‘s start to camp, with 11 hits in his first 19 at-bats and just four strikeouts, is piquing the interest of rival evaluators. If the Cubs drift out of contention this year, they are likely to become aggressive midseason sellers. Pederson, loaded with power and postseason experience, is likely to become one of the most coveted assets. … The White Sox’s Andrew Vaughn has impressed the Chicago front office with his composure and mental approach, which is reflected in his first plate appearances of spring — he has more walks (6) than strikeouts (3), while going 7-for-20 (.350). … Going into camp, the Yankees thought Jameson Taillon was already throwing with precision and showing excellent stuff. He has started with three scoreless outings, striking out nine in 5⅔ innings. He has, however, served up four walks. … The most important player on San Francisco this year might be Kevin Gausman — if the Giants become midseason sellers. Gausman could be one of the best available players available in the trade market, bearing little risk because he’s under contract for this one season. On Friday, his fastball hit 97 mph. As it continues to build, San Francisco has the long-term financial flexibility to try to lock him up to a multiyear deal. But the Giants also could trade the right-hander for assets during the upcoming season, when the team will be hard-pressed to keep up with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. After that, they could pursue Gausman when he becomes a free agent in the fall. … On Wednesday’s podcast, Giants broadcaster Duane Kuiper previewed the 2021 Giants and talked about how much better catcher Buster Posey is moving now that he’s another year removed from hip surgery. … On Tuesday, Jessica Mendoza discussed the Angels’ ongoing effort to improve the team’s competitive culture. On Thursday, Jeff Passan talked about the Rangers’ inclination to open their ballpark at full capacity. On Friday, Karl Ravech ran through some of the experimental rules and the possibility that one day baseball will be reduced from nine innings to seven. Here’s the bottom line: MLB must find a way in the years ahead to get its product into neat packages of 2½-3 hours.