As they look to defend their National League West crown, the San Francisco Giants made the first big splash in the post-lockout free-agent frenzy. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Friday that left-handed starter Carlos Rodon has agreed to a two-year, $44 million deal with the Giants that includes an opt-out clause after 2022.
Rodon was one of the big surprises of 2021 and joined Clayton Kershaw as the best starting pitchers available coming out of the lockout. He had pitched just 7⅔ innings in 2020 while coming off Tommy John surgery, and the White Sox non-tendered him — only to re-sign him on a one-year deal.
Healthy for the first time since 2018, Rodon made some mechanical adjustments and had the best season of his career, going 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA in 132⅔ innings, pitching a no-hitter and posting the best strikeout rate in the American League among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He had always battled his control prior to 2021, but he cut his career walk rate from 3.9 per nine innings to 2.5 and his already nasty slider was more unhittable than ever, as batters hit .107 with no home runs against it.
So why did Rodon get only a two-year deal? He pitched sparingly the final two months of the season, including spending time on the injured list for shoulder fatigue. When he did pitch, his velocity was down from the first half, and he struggled in his playoff start against the Astros (although his velocity was in the upper 90s in his outing of 2⅔ innings). The White Sox didn’t even extend him a qualifying offer, an indication they had concerns about his health moving forward.
Factoring that in, the Giants do take a risk here. If Rodon pitches well and stays healthy, he no doubt exercises the opt-out clause and the Giants get him for just one season. The worst-case scenario is he gets injured and then the Giants are on the hook for 2023 as well.
The Giants did need to take this kind of gamble, however. While they shockingly won 107 games in 2021, my colleague Bradford Doolittle’s projection system has them in a close race for the sixth spot in the National League (remember, we have a 12-team playoff format now) with the Cardinals and Phillies before Rodon — a healthy 12 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and even well behind the Mets and Padres in the wild-card standings. Rodon’s upside as a No. 1-caliber pitcher for 160 innings fills a hole in the rotation and lessens the blow of losing Kevin Gausman to the Blue Jays.
Indeed, it is worth pointing out the success the Giants have had working with veteran starters — and especially veteran starters coming off injuries under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, pitching coach Andrew Bailey and director of pitching Brian Bannister. Gausman’s career turned around in San Francisco, and in 2021, the team brought in two more pitchers coming off injuries: Anthony DeSclafani went 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA in 31 starts and Alex Wood went 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA over 26 starts. Both ended up re-signing with the Giants as free agents. While Rodon turned his career around in 2021, going to the Giants — great park, great support staff — improves the likelihood he remains at a high level.
Throw in free agent Alex Cobb and the Giants have a veteran-heavy rotation — with 2021 breakout Logan Webb the likely Opening Day starter. Certainly, the other risk is Rodon slips back into his inconsistent strike-throwing ways of the past. This is where I trust the Giants to get the best out of him, and the short-term contract isn’t really that big of a financial gamble compared to the five-year deals that Gausman or Robbie Ray received.