It’s not an exaggeration to suggest we are in a golden era of shortstops. This past season, 12 shortstops reached at least 4.0 WAR via the Baseball-Reference measurement of the metric, one more than in 2021 and matching 2019 for the most ever. Before 2018, there had never been even 10 shortstops to reach 4.0 WAR in a single season. With more offensive depth at the position than ever, shortstops collectively posted a .692 OPS in 2022, not much below the major league average of .707 — a remarkable output from a position where defense remains as vital as ever.
Shortstops are also making more money than ever. There have been two consecutive offseasons in which several of the best have entered free agency in the primes of their career, creating fierce bidding wars and shortstop turnover across the league. Last year, it was Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez and Trevor Story (and would have included Francisco Lindor except he signed a long-term extension with the New York Mets). This year, it featured Correa again along with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
Now that Swanson has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Chicago Cubs, let’s rate all the winners and losers as the shortstop carousel over the past two offseasons finally spins to a stop. Well, let’s rate the teams. All of the shortstops are big winners, considering the contracts start at $140 million in total value.
The winners
1. Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies signed Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract. While the length of the deal might seem a little preposterous because it runs through Turner’s age-41 season, the Padres reportedly offered $342 million and a third team, according to Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, was also in at a high offer. So the Phillies get a terrific all-around player who has been remarkably consistent the past three seasons, hitting .316/.364/.514. Turner can slot in at the top of order with his blazing speed but has also added enough power to slot in the middle of the lineup.
That speed is why I would have preferred Turner to any of the other available shortstops. Turner is entering his age-30 season, so let’s look at the shortstops since 1969 who produced the most WAR after turning 30. At the top of the list: Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter, Omar Vizquel, Bert Campaneris, Miguel Tejada and Alan Trammell. With the exception of Ripken, the others all had above-average speed in their 20s — and Turner has elite speed, ranking in the 99th percentile among all players in 2022. The fast shortstops, in general, aged much better than slower shortstops, such as John Valentin, Rich Aurilia or J.J. Hardy.
That alone doesn’t guarantee Turner will remain a big star deep into this contract. Speedy shortstops like Jimmy Rollins and Hanley Ramirez didn’t produce much value after turning 30. But I’ll take my chances on Turner. Even if he doesn’t remain at shortstop, his bat still plays and he could easily slide over to second base or even the outfield. I believe he’s the best bet to age well.
2. Houston Astros. Houston never seemed all that interested in signing Correa after 2021, handing over shortstop to rookie Jeremy Pena — and then promptly winning the World Series, with Pena hitting an American League Division Series-winning home run before capturing MVP honors in both the AL Championship Series and World Series. Pena became the first rookie shortstop to win a Gold Glove, and he hit 22 home runs while earning 4.8 WAR. All for $34.4 million less than the Minnesota Twins paid Correa in 2022.
Pena’s offensive game remains imperfect — he posted a .289 on-base percentage — but he’s young enough to improve. Most importantly, putting together a major league roster is a jigsaw puzzle of salaries and value, and Pena gives the Astros a valuable player for a low salary, allowing them to spend money elsewhere — like signing Jose Abreu and re-signing Michael Brantley. Aside from that, it’s not inconceivable Pena outperforms all the other shortstops over the six seasons from 2022 to 2027. In retrospect, it looks like an easy decision for the Astros to let Correa go, but it’s never easy moving on from a homegrown star like him. They made the correct choice.
3. San Diego Padres. The Padres didn’t land Turner, but they did sign Bogaerts for 11 years and $280 million. Like Turner, he’s entering his age-30 season and also won’t be playing shortstop when he’s 40, but the Padres are all-in for the immediate future. Adding an All-Star player like Bogaerts is a huge, sensible move for them — as long as ownership remains committed to high payrolls. I covered the risk for these contracts, and no doubt some, most or all of them won’t end well. I love Bogaerts’ consistency at the plate (although his 33-homer power surge in 2019 looks like a rabbit-ball fluke), and he’s actually coming off the best defensive season in his career, so maybe he stays at shortstop for a few more years before he moves to another position. His bat-to-ball skills should allow him to continue to put up solid numbers into his mid-30s.
4. San Francisco Giants. After Aaron Judge turned them down, the Giants quickly pivoted and signed Correa to a 13-year, $350 million contract — an annual average value just under $27 million that is a few pennies lower than Turner’s AAV. The bonus is that Correa is two years younger than Turner or Bogaerts, so in theory, San Francisco gets two additional prime seasons. That’s why he got more money. He has been the best defender of the three over the course of his career, and his OPS+ over the past four seasons is basically the equal of those two: 133 for Bogaerts, 131 for Turner, 130 for Correa. So I’ll call the Giants a winner. They needed a foundation-type player and got one.
Now … the problems. Correa is the slowest of the three — ranking in the 45th percentile in sprint speed in 2022. His last stolen base came in 2019 (he had one that season). His defensive metrics had been outstanding in recent seasons — until 2022, when his Statcast rating in outs above average slipped to the 18th percentile. Was that just a one-year aberration? A sign of things to come? A sign that perhaps he benefited from the Astros’ excellence in positioning? He’s one year removed from winning a Gold Glove, so the Giants are certainly banking that he’s going to remain at shortstop deep into this contract. He has been healthier the past two seasons, but all the time he missed from 2017 to 2019 is also of concern.
5. Atlanta Braves. Yes, even though the Braves lost Swanson, I’m calling them winners. They are where they are, in part, because they show organizational discipline, keep churning out prospects and have managed to sign most of those young players to long-term deals. The highest annual-average-value contracts on the roster belong to Austin Riley ($21.2 million) and Matt Olson ($21 million). Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million deal with the Cubs comes in at over $25 million a year. Do you want to pay him more than you’re paying Riley or Olson, let alone Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II? Plus, letting Swanson walk improves the team’s chances of handing out big money to keep ace Max Fried.
As good as Swanson was in 2022 (5.7 WAR), this past season stands out compared to the rest of his career (an average of 2.8 WAR per 162 games). This deal would have made Swanson Atlanta’s highest-paid player, gambling that 2022 wasn’t merely a career season. Yes, some regarded Swanson as the heart and soul of the Braves, and perhaps the club will miss that work ethic and attitude. But the Braves are in the best position of any franchise outside of perhaps the Los Angeles Dodgers to remain competitive over the long haul — in part because they haven’t gambled on contracts like this one. I think it was the right decision.
6. New York Yankees. Plan A was signing Judge. Had their MVP signed elsewhere, Plan B likely would have been signing one of the shortstops, even though two of the Yankees’ top prospects are shortstops Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. Sure, there’s nothing wrong with signing a player the caliber of Correa, but it wouldn’t have solved what the Yankees most needed. If they had lost Judge, they would have needed an outfielder, which might have meant spending the money they used to sign Carlos Rodon and/or trading one or both of those shortstop prospects to fill that need. Judge, Rodon and the young prospects is a better scenario for the Yankees than one with Correa and potentially without Rodon.
Wait and see (maybe winners, maybe losers)
1. Chicago Cubs. Going back to 2021, the Cubs traded Baez to the Mets rather than attempting to re-sign him. That looked like the right choice when Nico Hoerner took over as the starting shortstop and had a strong season in 2022: .281/.327/.410, good defense and 4.5 WAR. The Cubs weren’t good, but shortstop was hardly the team’s biggest problem. Nonetheless, the Cubs scooped up Swanson this weekend, making him the second-biggest free agent signing in franchise history after Jason Heyward’s $184 million deal.
Like Heyward, Swanson’s value is tied significantly to his defense, which rightfully earned him a Gold Glove in 2022 — his 21 outs above average led all shortstops. Certainly, if he plays at or close to his 2022 level (5.7 WAR) for an extended period of years, the Cubs’ $177 million deal might end up looking like a relative bargain compared to the contracts for Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. Swanson’s season — both offensively and defensively — looks like a career season, although it’s worth noting that Semien had his breakout season in 2019 at 28, the same age as Swanson in 2022. It’s unusual to take a leap forward at that age, but it can happen. Also, a middle infield combo of Swanson and Hoerner at second — and, for 2023 at least, Cody Bellinger in center field — gives the Cubs outstanding up-the-middle defense in a year when that will become more important with the new shift rules in place.
2. Texas Rangers. The Rangers committed $500 million to Seager and Semien heading into 2022, moving Semien to second base in the process. Semien (5.9) and Seager (4.0) combined for 9.9 WAR, so it’s hard to complain about that production, although Semien’s offensive numbers were down from his best seasons of 2019 and 2021 and Seager’s .245 average was down from his .297 career mark during seven seasons with the Dodgers. Texas also went 68-94 in 2022 — and then doubled down on big contracts for 2023, adding Jacob deGrom. Let’s see how this plays out. (Seager should be one of the biggest benefactors of the shift ban, as Sports Info Solutions numbers report Seager lost more hits via the shift than any other hitter in 2022.)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers. They lost Turner and were never really tied to any of the other shortstops. They appear intent on keeping the payroll under the $233 million tax threshold and playing Gavin Lux at shortstop. Lux did come up through the minors as a shortstop, and most scouts at the time thought he could handle the position in the majors, plus he has shown above-average range at second base, but there still seems to be a lot of skepticism about his ability to play shortstop. More importantly, it seems like the Dodgers are willing to take a small step back in 2023 for a long-term approach here — and that will include making a run at Shohei Ohtani when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2024.
4. Colorado Rockies. OK, it would be easy to pick on the Rockies; it’s always easy to pick on the Rockies. They didn’t trade Story before he hit free agency when they should have and then gave Kris Bryant even more money than the Red Sox gave Story. Bryant ended up playing just 42 games in his first season with the Rockies, so that deal is off to a bad start. They did get a draft pick for losing Story, which became outfielder Sterlin Thompson from the University of Florida, and that at least is a great baseball name. And now the Ezequiel Tovar era should start at shortstop in 2023. He hit .318/.386/.546 at Double-A at age 20 and appears to have a bright future.
The losers
1. Detroit Tigers. At six years and $140 million, the deal Baez signed with the Tigers ahead of 2022 seemed reasonable — especially if you wanted to buy into the final two months of his 2021 season when, after that trade to the Mets, he hit .299/.371/.515. Still, Baez always seemed like the riskiest of the entire group given his poor plate discipline, and that risk played out in the wrong way in his first season with Detroit as Baez suffered through a .238/.278/.393 season with just 17 home runs.
To make matters worse, the Tigers were terrible — and are now back in another rebuilding phase, when 2022 was supposed to see them back in contention. So they’re stuck with an expensive shortstop coming off a bad offensive season and his defense, while still good, is nowhere near as dynamic as it was a few years ago. He’s not a bad player — 2.5 WAR last season — but he’s not a foundational player like he was at his 2018-19 peak with the Cubs when he averaged 6.5 WAR. And he’s unlikely to get back to that level.
2. Boston Red Sox. A year ago, the Red Sox signed Story to a six-year, $140 million deal and moved him to second base. Story’s first season in Boston was a bit disappointing, in part because he missed time because of food poisoning, a fractured wrist and a heel injury, playing just 97 games in total and hitting .238/.303/.434 — the same 102 OPS+ he produced with the Colorado Rockies in 2021 (which had been below the 123 OPS+ from 2018 to 2020).
Part of Story’s allure was that he could be a potential replacement for Bogaerts if Bogaerts left after 2022 — which has indeed happened. That doesn’t seem likely now. The shoulder injury Story suffered in 2021 seems to have sapped his arm strength, which registered in just the eighth percentile of infielders in 2022. That won’t work at shortstop. To be fair, Story did have a good year defensively at second base and projects as a plus-glove there moving forward, but teams don’t really want to have their second baseman as the second-highest paid player on the team (currently the case with the Red Sox).
Teams typically would prefer to pay the big bucks to a shortstop or starting pitcher or center fielder or a big slugger. Story isn’t any of those at this point. And now Bogaerts is gone as well. Luckily, Marcelo Mayer has emerged as one of the top shortstop prospects in the minors, and maybe the Red Sox will get the last laugh when all these big contracts look like clunkers in five or six years. But after missing the playoffs in 2022 and losing Bogaerts, Red Sox Nation is understandably unhappy.
3. Minnesota Twins. They signed Correa to a three-year deal before 2022 — a surprise signing for a team that never goes after the top free agents — but that deal included an opt-out clause after the season, which Correa exercised. The Twins ended up with just one season of Correa, and they finished under .500 and missed the playoffs, even though Correa played well. Kudos for the one-year gamble, and the Twins even made a strong push to re-sign Correa, but it just didn’t work out. Now their shortstop is … Kyle Farmer? Back to Jorge Polanco? Prospect Royce Lewis, who can’t stay healthy? And while they were interested in signing Correa, it seemed to be an all-or-nothing approach, as they didn’t end up with any of the top 30 free agents. (Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielder Joey Gallo have been their two signings.)
4. Los Angeles Angels. In 2021, Angels shortstops ranked 23rd in the majors in OPS. In 2022, they ranked 28th. Andrew Velazquez has a good glove but hit .196 with a strikeout-to-walk ratio that would make Baez blush. He’s adequate, but this is a big-market team trying to get over the hump of no playoff appearances since 2014. The Angels’ current estimated payroll is $212 million. Sure, one of the free agent shortstops would have pushed them above the tax threshold, but an additional four or five wins could easily mean the difference between the Angels making the playoffs or not making it. OK, they’re up for sale and maybe they want to save in hopes of re-signing Ohtani. Given that Ohtani is unlikely to re-sign anyway, shouldn’t you go all-in while you have Ohtani and Mike Trout together?
5. Seattle Mariners. It’s not like the Mariners haven’t spent any money lately — they signed Robbie Ray last offseason and then gave Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo nine-figure extensions during the season — but the roster seems at least a hitter short when compared to the best teams in the American League (especially given the Astros’ moves), and the payroll has some wriggle room in it. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said entering the offseason that the Mariners were committed to J.P. Crawford at shortstop, and that remains the case, as the middle infield upgrade was acquiring second baseman Kolten Wong. The problem: Crawford and Wong both had terrible defensive metrics in 2022 via outs above average. They’ve both been better defenders in the past, but let’s see if that turns into an issue that leaves the Mariners wishing they had somebody like Swanson at shortstop.
6. Baltimore Orioles. I won’t rag on the O’s too much for not pursuing a top free agent — one of the shortstops or even a starting pitcher or two. They probably did overachieve in 2022, so general manager Mike Elias is sticking to his plan, and that clearly precludes major free agent additions until at least next offseason. Still, they signed Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier for $18 million. For an extra $7 million, they could have had Swanson or Bogaerts — times many more years, of course. Elias is clearly following the path he learned while in the Astros’ front office: Win first, hope your homegrown players, like their own young shortstop Gunnar Henderson, turn into the Baltimore versions of Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer, and then make the big moves to get over the top. It looks like it might work — but don’t be surprised if the team takes a step back in 2023.