Week 18 betting: Can Jaguars, Steelers keep cover streaks going?

Jacksonville and Tennessee meet with the AFC South title on the line. Jacksonville has lost six straight games outright as a home favorite (0-3 this season). That is tied for the fourth-longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era and tied for the longest active streak (Carolina). However, it has covered four straight games entering this week.

In the other potential winner-take-all matchup, Green Bay is a home favorite over Detroit. Both teams enter the matchup red hot, as Detroit has covered eight of its last nine games, while Green Bay has covered four straight. Green Bay was 12-1 to make the playoffs following its 4-8 start.

New England can also clinch a playoff spot with a win, but it is currently a 7-point underdog in Buffalo. New England is 0-3 ATS in its last three games and 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

Kansas City visits Las Vegas as it looks to improve to 6-0 outright in division games. However, it is 0-5 ATS in those five wins. No team in the Super Bowl era has gone undefeated outright in division games but winless ATS. Kansas City is also 0-5 ATS in its last five games as at least a seven-point favorite.

Two competing trends square off in the Baltimore-Cincinnati game. Cincinnati is 20-3 ATS in its last 23 games including the playoffs, the best 23-game stretch in the Super Bowl era. It has covered seven straight games. However, Baltimore is 16-3-1 ATS as an underdog over the last five seasons.

Season results

• Road teams: 8-7 ATS last week; 125-123-7 ATS this season

• Underdogs: 8-7 ATS last week; 132-111-7 ATS this season

• Unders: 8-6-1 last week; 140-112-3 this season

• Best ATS team: Cincinnati (12-3)

• Worst ATS team: Tampa Bay (4-11-1)

Best ATS Records

Cincinnati: 12-3
New York (N): 12-4
Detroit: 11-5
Los Angeles (A): 10-5-1

Worst ATS Records

Tampa Bay: 4-11-1
Los Angeles (N): 5-10-1
Chicago: 5-10-1
Indianapolis: 6-10
Kansas City: 6-10

Season win totals on the line

• Carolina (6.5), Washington (7.5), New England (8.5), Miami (8.5), Los Angeles Chargers (10, currently pushed)

• Kansas City is 5-0 in division games but 0-5 ATS. No team in the Super Bowl era has gone undefeated outright in division games but winless ATS. In fact, no team has gone undefeated in division games and covered less than two division games.

• Kansas City is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite of at least seven points under Andy Reid (4-8 ATS with Patrick Mahomes including five straight ATS losses).

• Kansas City is 1-10 ATS in conference games this season.

• Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.

• Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.

• Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games with three straight covers.

• All five meetings since 2020 have gone over the total. Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.

• Last week, Jacksonville snapped a seven-game outright losing streak as a favorite. The only times in the last three seasons that Jacksonville was at least a six-point favorite, it lost outright.

• Jacksonville has lost six straight games outright as a home favorite (0-3 this season). That is tied for the fourth-longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era and tied for the longest active streak (Carolina).

• Jacksonville has covered four straight games.

• Tennessee is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games. Ten of Tennessee’s last 13 games have gone under the total including three straight.

• Tennessee has lost four straight games outright as an underdog of at least six points (1-3 ATS).

• Prior to that, Mike Vrabel began his career 6-1 outright and 7-0 ATS as an underdog of at least six points.

• Mike Vrabel is 10-4 ATS on extra rest (8-2 ATS since 2019).

• Prime-time unders are 12-1 over the past four weeks and 33-19-1 this season.

• Road teams are 31-22 ATS in prime-time games this season (road underdogs: 21-13 ATS).

• New York is 0-5 outright and ATS in its last five games when the line is between +3 and -3.

• New York is 0-3 ATS in its last three games. Nine of its last 11 games have gone under the total including three straight.

• Miami is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings against New York.

• Over the last five seasons, Miami is 19-9-1 ATS in division games while New York is 9-20 ATS.

• Miami’s win total of 8.5 is at stake this week. Miami has lost five straight games after an 8-3 start.

• Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against teams with losing records.

• Pittsburgh has covered five of its last six games including three straight.

• Six straight Cleveland games have gone under the total including all five Deshaun Watson starts.

• Mike Tomlin is 4-1 ATS against Kevin Stefanski.

• Cleveland is 11-23-1 ATS in conference games under Kevin Stefanski. He is 5-12 ATS against division opponents but 4-1 ATS this season.

• Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games in that role.

• Indianapolis is 13-5-1 ATS against Houston in the last 10 seasons. The last five meeings went under the total.

• Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five games with overs going 4-1.

• Davis Mills is making his 25th career start. He joins Tim Couch (30) and Dan Fouts (27) as the only quarterbacks since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to be underdogs in their first 25 career starts. This would be his second career start and first road start as an underdog of less than three points.

• Tampa Bay is a league-worst 4-11-1 ATS this season, including 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 games and 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

• It is also 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.

• Five straight Atlanta games have gone under the total.

• Atlanta is 3-9 ATS as a home favorite since 2020 and 17-32 ATS since 2014 (1-2 ATS this season).

• Eight of New Orleans’ last nine games have gone under the total including five straight. Carolina has gone over the total in four straight games. The last four meetings between these teams went under the total.

• Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.

• New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in division games this season. Carolina is 4-1 ATS.

• Carolina is 7-4 ATS under Steve Wilks.

• Carolina’s season win total will be decided this week (6.5).

• New England is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.

• New England is 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• New England is 0-3 ATS in its last three games. New England has only lost four straight games ATS twice within a single season under Bill Belichick (five straight in 2002, four straight in 2000).

• New England is 18-6 ATS as an underdog of at least seven points under Bill Belichick (2-2 ATS since Tom Brady left). New England has not been an underdog of at least 7.5 points in a division game since Week 6 of 2001 against Indianapolis in Tom Brady’s fourth career start (+10, won outright). The only time since then New England has been a seven-point underdog was in 2020 at Buffalo (+7).

• Buffalo is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five home games (4-1 outright).

• Baltimore has not been more than a three-point underdog this season. Since 2018, Baltimore is 16-3-1 ATS as an underdog, including 6-2 ATS without Lamar Jackson.

• Cincinnati has covered seven straight games, tied for its longest single-season streak in franchise history (1970). Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games and a league-best 12-3 ATS this season. Cincinnati is 20-3 ATS in its last 23 games, including last year’s postseason, the best 23-game span by any team in the Super Bowl era.

• Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS at home this season.

• Cincinnati has covered three straight meetings.

• Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four games. Six straight Minnesota games have gone over the total.

• Minnesota is 1-5 ATS this season as a favorite of at least 3.5 points. Since 2020, Minnesota is 1-6 ATS as a favorite of a least six points.

• Chicago is 5-10-1 ATS this season, tied for the 2nd-worst mark in the league. It is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.

• Minnesota has not been at least a 7.5-point road favorite since 2017 (-8.5 at Green Bay; won 16-0).

• Los Angeles is 5-10-1 ATS this season, tied for 2nd-worst in the league. It is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.

• Seattle is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games despite covering against the New York Jets last week.

• Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS against Seattle since 2019 including playoffs and 3-0 ATS since last season.

• Sean McVay is 8-4 ATS against Pete Carroll including playoffs.

• New York is 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season. New York is also 6-1 ATS on the road, all as an underdog.

• New York is 12-4 ATS overall, the 2nd-best mark in the league, and tied for the best 16-game mark the franchise has had in the Super Bowl era (2008).

• Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in its last three games.

• Philadelphia is 8-2-1 ATS as a home favorite under Nick Sirianni.

• New York has been a 14-point underdog only once in the last 25 seasons (2019 at New England: +17). The New York-Philadelphia rivalry has had just one 14-point spread in the Super Bowl era (New York -14.5 in 1973).

• San Francisco is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite this season with four straight covers.

• Arizona is 12-4 ATS on the road since the start of last season including 10-2 ATS as a road underdog.

• San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

• San Francisco has covered six straight division games (5-0 ATS this season).

• San Francisco is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games as a double-digit favorite including 1-4-1 ATS under Kyle Shanahan.

• San Francisco has not been at least a 14-point favorite since 2013. Arizona has not been a 14-point underdog since 2018 (prior to Kliff Kingsbury’s hire).

• Denver is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season (1-4 SU) and 2-9 ATS against teams .500 or worse.

• Denver has covered four straight games following an outright loss.

• Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games including three straight as an underdog. Four straight Denver games have gone over the total.

• Los Angeles games are 4-0-1 to the under in its last five games.

• Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.

• Los Angeles’ win total was 10 entering this season. A win would put LA over the total, while a loss would be a push.

• Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games. 11 of its last 14 games have gone over the total.

• Washington’s season win total of 7.5 is at stake this week. Washington has not been at least a seven-point home underdog this season. The only time it happened last season, Washington (+10) upset Tampa Bay outright. Dallas is 17-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season including 7-4 ATS this season. Dallas is 18-5 ATS in conference games since the start of last season including 7-4 ATS this season

• Detroit is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games including going 5-0 ATS as an underdog in that span.

• Green Bay has covered four straight games.

• Since 2017, Detroit is 9-2 ATS against Green Bay. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in division games. Detroit has never finished a season unbeaten ATS in the Super Bowl era.

• Green Bay is 17-9 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite.

• Prime time unders are 12-1 over the past four weeks and 33-19-1 this season.

• Sunday primetime unders are 12-5 with four straight unders.

• Road teams are 31-22 ATS in prime-time games this season (road underdogs: 21-13 ATS).