The college football offseason is painfully long, and over the course of the 7.5 months between the national title game and Week 0, we can talk ourselves into quite a bit. The first time a potential Alabama starting quarterback throws an interception in spring ball, we’ll convince ourselves that Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are due for a genuine setback. By August, we’ll decide they’re as loaded as ever.
Here’s where the advanced stats can help us a decent amount. While outliers happen every year based on injuries, close games and the whims of 18- to 22-year-olds and a pointy football, a solid projections system can help us define the most likely range of outcomes for teams.
With 2023 recruiting in the rearview mirror, transfer portal movement quiet for now and my initial SP+ projections released into the wild, now’s as good a time as any to set some standards for the teams conventional wisdom tells us will have the highest standards this fall. For each of the teams in Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25, plus a select few others, let’s use SP+ to establish ceilings and floors, and let’s talk about the single biggest variable affecting which one they gravitate toward. (Hint: If they have a new starting quarterback, that’s probably the biggest variable.)
Now, we have to be careful in how we set the parameters. SP+ gives Auburn a 0.01% chance of going 12-0 at the moment, but does that mean the Tigers’ ceiling is 12-0? Sure, technically, but we’re going to keep things more realistic: The ceilings and floors listed below basically come from the middle 80% of the projections. I lopped off the extreme projections — Georgia with a 0.2% chance of going 7-5! Michigan with a 0.1% chance of going 6-6! Temple with a 0.1% chance of going 11-1! Nebraska with a 0.02% chance of going 12-0! — and looked only at the projections landing between the 10% and 90% ranges.
Because I’m tamping down the outliers, you’ll quickly find that most teams have a range of either three or four wins between their respective ceilings and floors. But this exercise does a solid job of separating teams into tiers of expectations. Only three teams start out with a 12-0 ceiling. Everyone else is going to need some breaks to get there.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 9-3
Initial SP+ rank: 1 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 62%
Biggest variable: Quarterback. Stetson Bennett is gone, and while his replacement — be it junior Carson Beck, sophomore Brock Vandagriff or redshirt freshman Gunner Stockton — will inevitably have been much more well-touted than Bennett was coming out of high school, the bar is high, especially with a new (and old) offensive coordinator in Mike Bobo. Still, the Dawgs return tight end Brock Bowers, receiver Ladd McConkey, three offensive line starters and a majority of last year’s starting defense. They’ve got what they need to make a run at a third straight national title as long as the quarterback position and play-calling aren’t outright weaknesses.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 9-3
Initial SP+ rank: 2 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 39%
Biggest variable: Quarterback. Either junior Kyle McCord or redshirt freshman Devin Brown will take over for C.J. Stroud behind center. Both were top-100 recruits, and either will find plenty to like about what is probably the best skill corps in the country — receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka and running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams all return for the Buckeyes. Perhaps more importantly, second-year defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will have both more familiarity and more star power (end J.T. Tuimoloau, linebackers Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers) going for him, too.
3. Michigan Wolverines
Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 9-3
Initial SP+ rank: 3 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 46%
Biggest variable: Pass rush. The third of the three teams in the “12-0 to 9-3” range boasts something the others don’t: an incumbent QB (J.J. McCarthy). They’ll have one of the most experienced teams in the country, too. There’s a lot to like. But the Wolverines’ pass rush in 2022 was merely good, not great, and now they must replace edge rusher Mike Morris. Between Coastal Carolina transfer Josaiah Stewart and some youngsters, Michigan will need to unearth some players who not only match last year’s sack production but increase it.
4. Florida State Seminoles
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4
Initial SP+ rank: 11 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 19%
Biggest variable: Expectations. Now we get to the teams in the “11-1 to 8-4 or 7-5” range. After finishing the season on a six-game winning streak — and leading the nation in returning production — the Noles are all but guaranteed to start the season in the AP top 10 for the first time since 2017. That they’re projected only 11th in SP+ says they might not have the overall roster that other contenders do, however, and they still face trips to Clemson and Florida, a game vs. LSU in Orlando and likely home run swings from others.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4
Initial SP+ rank: 4 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 21%
Biggest variable: Epic change. Quarterback Bryce Young, edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and both coordinators are gone, replaced by Tommy Rees on offense and Kevin Steele on defense. Nick Saban remains an ace recruiter, and the Crimson Tide’s depth chart will be as loaded as ever with former blue-chippers. But with Saban passing on a transfer quarterback for now, either Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson or an incoming freshman (Eli Holstein or Dylan Lonergan) will be piloting a new-look, new-identity (and new O-line) offense. The defense will have about seven new starters, too. How much change is too much?
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4
Initial SP+ rank: 5 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 25%
Biggest variable: Drew Allar vs. hype. As planned, the five-star quarterback served as Sean Clifford‘s understudy during an excellent 11-2 season. Now he’s The Guy. He’ll share a backfield stud sophomores Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, lining up behind a seasoned, high-upside line. The defense could be absolute dynamite. The pieces are in place for a top-five run, but Allar not only has to live up loads of hype; he also has to help James Franklin figure out a way past Ohio State and Michigan. PSU has lost four in a row to the Big Ten East’s heavyweights.
7. USC Trojans
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4
Initial SP+ rank: 10 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 19%
Biggest variable: Duh, defense. In six seasons as a head coach, Lincoln Riley has never produced an offensive SP+ ranking worse than fifth. He’s also only produced one defensive SP+ ranking better than 63rd. (In 2022, the Trojans were first and 87th, respectively.) With Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams and what appears to be another good skill corps returning, it’s safe to say USC will again be elite offensively. But Riley and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch bear a significant burden of proof when it comes to stopping opponents. Can experience and a new truckload of transfers reverse a dreadful defensive reputation?
8. LSU Tigers
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 7 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 10%
Biggest variable: Big plays. In head coach Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge, the Tigers won 10 games and stole the SEC West title with an upset of Alabama. With ever-scrambling quarterback Jayden Daniels and most of the offense returning, and with Matt House’s defense bringing in 10 transfers to pair with safety Greg Brooks Jr. and other veterans, it’s easy to think big. But winning the “easy points” battle is key to making a title push. LSU ranked 101st in marginal explosiveness* on offense and 50th on defense. Efficiency? No problem. Big plays? A bit of a problem.
* Marginal explosiveness: My go-to explosiveness measure, which looks at the magnitude of a team’s successful plays and adjusts for down, distance and field position.
9. Oregon Ducks
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4
Initial SP+ rank: 8 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 23%
Biggest variable: Offensive line. Bo Nix was one of the stories of 2022, throwing for nearly 3,600 yards and 30 touchdowns after his transfer from Auburn. With most of his skill corps returning, and with an iffy defense returning enough experience to project improvement, there’s a lot to like about the Ducks as a contender in a suddenly loaded Pac-12. But Nix will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Will Stein, formerly of UTSA), and he’ll be protected by an offensive line replacing four starters. If it holds up, Oregon’s a top-10 team. But what if it doesn’t?
10. Tennessee Volunteers
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 6 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 13%
Biggest variable: The Joe Milton bandwagon. Does it derail once again? As I wrote in Tuesday’s SP+ projections piece, Milton has seduced multiple head coaches with his rocket-launcher arm (and looked great in the Orange Bowl against Clemson), but he has also twice lost his starting job. If he properly captains Josh Heupel’s up-tempo offense — a QB-friendly attack that returns a loaded run game and receiving weapons like Bru McCoy and Ramel Keyton — then the sky is the limit for a Volunteers team that boasts massive defensive experience and, intriguingly, hosts Georgia. Is Milton’s third time a charm?
11. Washington Huskies
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 16 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 13%
Biggest variable: Defensive efficiency. The third of six potential Pac-12 contenders on the list, the Huskies surged from 4-8 to 11-2 in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as head coach. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 4,641 yards and 31 touchdowns and elected to return to Seattle to once again pair up with the dynamite receiver duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. The defense was merely solid, however, attempting a bend-don’t-break approach but bending way too much. Playmakers like Bralen Trice and Tuli Letuligasenoa do return, but the Huskies need to do much better at knocking opponents off schedule.
12. TCU Horned Frogs
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 6-6
Initial SP+ rank: 19 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 5%
Biggest variable: Change everywhere. Quarterback Max Duggan is gone. Two running backs and three receivers topped 500 yards; they’re all gone. Ace pass rushers Dylan Horton and Dee Winters and star corner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson? Gone. Offensive coordinator Garrett Riley? Off to fix Clemson. Sonny Dykes won some big transfer recruiting battles, and the defense should still be heavy with seniors. The floor is pretty high, but with a high number of projected close games on the schedule, the Horned Frogs’ range of outcomes for 2023 is wide, and the god of close games might not be nearly as kind.
13. Utah Utes
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 13 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 7%
Biggest variable: Big plays (same as always). The announced return of quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe, among others, gave Kyle Whittingham’s Utes a shot in the arm in their pursuit for a third straight conference title. But your margin for error is always iffy when you lose the big-play battle, and that’s long been an issue for Utah. They ranked 104th in marginal explosiveness on offense and 131st on defense. They’re as physical and efficient as ever, but in a loaded conference race, now would be a great time to gain control over the gashes.
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 15 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 10%
Biggest variable: A new marriage. We thought we knew what Marcus Freeman would be working with in 2023 after pairing offensive coordinator Tommy Rees with prolific Wake Forest quarterback transfer Sam Hartman. But Rees left for Bama in Tuscaloosa in February, leaving Freeman to scramble for a replacement. (After a number of misfires, the search continues.) An experienced Irish defense has top-15 potential, and Hartman will have a loaded and physical run game at his disposal, but Notre Dame simply couldn’t throw when it needed to last year. A new coordinator and new QB must fix that.
15. Clemson Tigers
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4
Initial SP+ rank: 12 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 19%
Biggest variable: Modernization. After six consecutive top-four finishes and two national titles, Clemson settled into being merely a top-15 program over the last two years. The Tigers averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of ninth in that six-year run, but that average sank to 61st in 2021-22. Acknowledging the obvious need for a refresh, Dabo Swinney brought in TCU’s Garrett Riley, who will have some fun pieces — QB Cade Klubnik, RB Will Shipley, WR Antonio Williams — around which to build. The defense wasn’t as good as projected in 2022, but it should be fine. As the offense goes, so goes Clemson.
16. Texas Longhorns
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 9 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 12%
Biggest variable: Closing games. In two years under Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns are 9-2 in games decided by more than one score. That’s generally a sign of a team with huge potential. But they’re also 4-10 in one-score finishes, a ghastly record that is almost certainly some combination of horrible luck and a perfect predilection for doing the wrong things at the wrong times. If it’s more former than latter, then with excellent recent recruiting and a top-20 ranking in returning production, the Horns could be geared up for a breakout season. But … was it more former than latter?
17. Oregon State Beavers
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 6-6
Initial SP+ rank: 31 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 4%
Biggest variable: DJ U. Jonathan Smith’s Beavers leaped from 89th to 16th in defensive SP+ (and, consequently, from 7-6 to 10-3) last year and should have the pieces to at least threaten another top-30 performance on that side of the ball. But injuries and iffy play at quarterback held them back — they averaged just 17 points per game with eight interceptions and no TD passes in three losses. Will Clemson quarterback transfer DJ Uiagalelei turn around both his career and OSU’s offensive trajectory with a move out west? If so, this might be a five-team Pac-12 title race.
18. Kansas State Wildcats
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 6-6
Initial SP+ rank: 22 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 3%
Biggest variable: New playmakers. With an offense that ranked only 59th in success rate, Chris Klieman’s Wildcats were reliant on big plays during their Big 12 title run. But the two most explosive offensive options, Deuce Vaughn and Malik Knowles, are gone. For that matter, so are defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah and ball-hawking corner Julius Brents. K-State will be experienced and dangerous in 2023, but they either need to grow far more consistent, or they need a new batch of high-level play-makers to meet a very high standard. (Landing FSU’s Treshaun Ward was a good step in that regard.)
19. Tulane Green Wave
Ceiling: 10-1 | Floor: 7-4 (Tulane currently has only 11 games scheduled)
Initial SP+ rank: 37 | Odds of finishing 10-1 or better: 26%
Biggest variable: Again, new play-makers. If this past weekend’s appearance in a Mardi Gras float is any indication, Willie Fritz’s Green Wave are still basking in the glow of their 12-win season in 2022.
What a glorious float for the Cotton Bowl champs at @GreenWaveFB 🌊😍 pic.twitter.com/hNa7dNp2iy
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) February 11, 2023
After Tulane’s best season since 1998, 3,000-yard passer Michael Pratt announced he was staying and three of the Wave’s fiercest AAC rivals (Cincinnati, Houston and UCF) left for the Big 12. Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry left for Miami, but there’s a lot going right. The Wave still have to replace electric stars in 1,500-yard rusher Tyjae Spears (6.9 yards per carry) and receivers Duece Watts and Shae Wyatt (nearly 20 yards per catch). Fritz was aggressive in the transfer portal, but Tulane has a high bar to clear after ranking eighth in marginal explosiveness in 2022.
20. Ole Miss Rebels
Ceiling: 9-3 | Floor: 5-7
Initial SP+ rank: 18 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 1%
Biggest variable: Quarterback. After starting 8-1 and averaging 37.4 points per game in 2022, Lane Kiffin’s Rebels lost their last four and averaged 24.5. Jaxson Dart ranked 15th in Total QBR before November 1 and 64th after. As he is wont to do, Kiffin was aggressive in bringing in reinforcements. Dart, Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders and LSU transfer (and former top-50 recruit) Walker Howard will compete for the QB job in 2023. The Rebels defense will be loaded with seniors, but we’ll see if they get what they need from the most important position in the sport.
21. North Carolina Tar Heels
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 6-6
Initial SP+ rank: 28 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 6%
Biggest variable: Defense, as always. In Mack Brown’s four years back in coaching, his UNC Tar Heels have averaged an SP+ ranking of 16.3 on offense … and 85.5 on defense. In Gene Chizik’s first year as defensive coordinator, they were 105th in defensive SP+, allowing 32.6 points per game in losses. Now he’s got a secondary to rebuild. Offensive coordinator Phil Longo left for Wisconsin (he was replaced by Chip Lindsey), and while quarterback Drake Maye would likely thrive in any offense, it’s hard to imagine double-digit wins without solid defensive improvement.
22. UTSA Roadrunners
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 6-6
Initial SP+ rank: 60 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 2%
Biggest variable: A brand new secondary. Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners got a huge shot in the arm when quarterback Frank Harris announced he was returning for UTSA’s first season in the AAC. He’ll be working with a new line and new play-caller, but UTSA’s stable of play-makers remains strong. If there are issues in 2023, they’ll probably stem from a defense that (a) allowed too many big plays (118th in marginal explosiveness) and (b) lost five of its top six defensive backs. Heavy turnover in the secondary correlates strongly with defensive regression, and UTSA was already just 88th in defensive SP+.
23. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Ceiling: 9-3 | Floor: 5-7
Initial SP+ rank: 35 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 1%
Biggest variable: Defense, as always. In the last 13 years, Texas Tech has never finished in the defensive SP+ top 60 and has only once topped 78th. Last year: 82nd. Joey McGuire’s first season in charge was exciting – Tech beat both Texas and Oklahoma on the way to its first eight-win season in nine years – and we’re seeing some “dark-horse Big 12 contender?” buzz after a solid batch of super seniors (including quarterback Tyler Shough) announced their return. The defense is experienced, but unless experience translates into a top-50ish performance, the buzz will likely be for naught.
24. James Madison Dukes
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 65 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 9%
Biggest variable: Another offensive rebuild. Curt Cignetti’s Dukes burst in the FBS door with bad intentions. They went 8-3 in their first season and would have won the Sun Belt East if they’d been eligible; their defense was downright nasty, ranking ninth in points allowed per drive and first in three-and-out rate. It returns a ton. The offense was good, too, but Cignetti will have a new offensive coordinator and starting QB and mostly new skill corps. The line returns intact, but that’s a lot of change, and going 11-1 (or better) will require lots of new starters becoming stars.
25. Iowa Hawkeyes
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 27 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 6%
Biggest variable: I’ll give you one guess. (It’s offense.) Iowa has finished sixth or better in defensive SP+ for four straight seasons. They ranked first defensively in 2022 but went just 8-5, falling to 118th in offensive SP+ and averaging an appalling 10.8 points in losses. Instead of firing offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, Iowa gave him a new contract with a ridiculously low bar for improvement. Sadly, if they clear that low bar — and with incoming Michigan transfers in QB Cade McNamara and TE Erick All, plus some O-line reinforcements, they might — they could win a lot of games.
There are five more teams that missed the cut on Schlabach’s list but boast a ceiling of at least 10-2 with a floor no lower than 7-5. We should talk about them, too, as they are also candidates for big seasons.
(I should also share that Oklahoma State has a remarkable “10-2 ceiling, 5-7 floor” split that I’m pretty sure could only happen in the Big 12. Have fun with that, Cowboys fans.)
Oklahoma Sooners
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 14 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 16%
Biggest variable: A second-year defensive breakthrough. OU was basically a lower-grade Texas in 2022, going 6-2 in multi-score games but finishing under .500 for the first time since 1998 because of an 0-5 record in the close ones. The offense was good when quarterback Dillon Gabriel was healthy, but despite head coach Brent Venables elite defensive reputation, he wasn’t able to engineer improvement there in year one, and the Sooners allowed 41.7 points per game in losses. Will that change in his second year of culture-building (and with a new batch of defensive transfers)? It better!
UCLA Bruins
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 21 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 12%
Biggest variable: Newbies. The Bruins won 17 games in 2021-22, but we seem to be writing them off a bit in 2023 after the departures of seven offensive starters, including QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet. But Chip Kelly has worked the transfer portal aggressively in 2023, bringing in seven potential starters on offense, plus a few on defense as well. This will be a new but experienced team this fall, and if the chemistry experiment succeeds, they have more than enough talent to make this a … five-way Pac-12 race? Six-way? Eight-way? What number are we up to now?
Troy Trojans
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 54 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 12%
Biggest variable: Offensive efficiency. Jon Sumrall’s Trojans won maybe the best ever Sun Belt in 2022, and with much of the conference losing loads of last year’s production, Troy returns around 14 starters. They will face a major challenge from JMU and South Alabama at the least, but they’ll have a shot at another huge season. The offense sure could help out more, though. Troy ranked just 106th in offensive SP+, creating occasional huge plays but falling behind schedule a lot. Can QB Gunnar Watson and company more consistently execute the small plays to go with the big ones?
Wisconsin Badgers
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 25 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 6%
Biggest variable: An epic identity shift. It feels like a betrayal of everything the Big Ten West stands for that its most consistently solid purveyor of Big Burly Manball is attempting to modernize. New head coach Luke Fickell should love what he inherits defensively, but the change from a plodding, run-heavy attack to Phil Longo’s up-tempo spread is going to be fascinating. Three QB transfers and five WR transfers will help — you sure can flip your identity quickly these days — and the division is ripe for the taking if the Badgers avoid growing pains. But this is absolute whiplash.
Fresno State Bulldogs
Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 67 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 10%
Biggest variable: The forward pass. Fresno State won the Mountain West in 2022 thanks to excellent defense (36th in defensive SP+) and an offense that thrived with a healthy Jake Haener. The D could be loaded again, but with both Haener and most of last year’s receiving corps gone, the Bulldogs are starting over on O. Jeff Tedford doesn’t tend to field poor passing attacks, but 2023 will test that even with the addition of UCF’s Mikey Keene. If they are strong enough in that regard, another season of double-digit wins — their fifth in seven years — is on the table.