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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
The SEC needed only one team to reach the College Football Playoff last year to earn another national title, but there were moments — the SEC could get THREE teams in!?! — when it looked like they’d get more.
This year, Alabama, LSU and Tennessee will try to elbow out defending national champion Georgia from the top spot, so prepare for conversations about multiple SEC teams finishing in the top four. They won’t be the only conference with multiteam talk, though. The Big Ten produced two semifinalists last year in Ohio State and Michigan — and those schools could do it again. (Unless Penn State has something to say about it … wait, could the Big Ten get THREE teams in?!?)
While it’s certainly possible for a conference to have multiple teams finish in the selection committee’s top four, it’s not normal. It has happened only three times in the playoffs’ nine-year history (excluding the 2020 season, when Notre Dame temporarily joined the ACC because of the COVID-19 pandemic). Alabama and Georgia both finished in the top four in 2017 and 2021, and Ohio State and Michigan represented the Big Ten in the CFP last season.
When the CFP expands to 12 teams in 2024, this won’t be viewed as such a Herculean achievement — conferences will be expected to have at least two or three teams in the field. For one final season, though, the burden of proof remains higher for any team that doesn’t win its conference.
The selection committee must “unequivocally” agree a team that isn’t a conference champion is one of the four best teams in the country. Typically, that has been proven through on-field dominance (the eye test and statistics like scoring margin and a top-15 offense and defense), and strength of schedule, which places a heavy weight on nonconference opponents and wins against CFP top 25 teams.
Taking into consideration how the committee thinks in addition to ESPN’s Football Power Index and other factors, here’s an early prediction on which Power 5 conferences have the best chance to put multiple teams in the playoff.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Pac-12 | Big 12
1. SEC
Top contenders: Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee
FPI says: 51% chance for multiple CFP teams
Agree or disagree: Strongly agree
Here’s why it will: The committee has shown over the past decade it holds the conference in high regard, and it has had multiple teams reach the playoff before — multiple times. Georgia doesn’t face Alabama or LSU during the regular season, so the SEC avoids a guaranteed loss for what should be one of its three best teams before the SEC championship game. It can happen if Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama or LSU roll through the regular season undefeated but lose in the SEC title game. It can also happen if Alabama doesn’t win the SEC but finishes with one loss and has a win over Big 12 champion Texas. Or, if LSU doesn’t win the SEC, but finishes with one loss — at Alabama — and has a win over ACC champ Florida State.
Here’s why it won’t: The most compelling and realistic reason is simply because other Power 5 conference champions are either (A) undefeated or (B) have one loss, a better résumé and a better team than the SEC’s No. 2 and No. 3 teams. That could happen if USC and either Clemson or Florida State flex this season, presenting the selection committee with the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC champs for their top four. But the SEC could be flying solo again if it repeats last season’s blueprint, when two of the league’s best teams finish with at least two losses. Plus, if Georgia doesn’t win at Tennessee on Nov. 18 and in turn doesn’t win the East Division, the Dawgs could be in big trouble. There is no Oregon on this schedule like last season. Georgia plays UT Martin, Ball State, UAB and Georgia Tech in its nonconference schedule — none of which are going to impress the selection committee, even in lopsided wins. The entire East Division could be eliminated if Tennessee beats Georgia but loses at Alabama on Oct. 21 and again in the SEC championship game. The SEC’s two-team scenario could still happen with Alabama and LSU both getting in, though … which is why the SEC tops this list.
2. Big Ten
Top contenders: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
FPI says: 25% chance for multiple CFP teams
Agree or disagree: Agree. Would increase the chance slightly
Here’s why it will: The Big Ten did it last year, and Ohio State and Michigan have similar teams returning, with the most glaring exception being a new starting quarterback at Ohio State. The chances should be bumped marginally because Penn State has the talent and opportunity to join one of them in the debate. The Nittany Lions will have home-field advantage on Nov. 11 against Michigan, where a win could create a three-way tie in the Big Ten East Division if Ohio State beats Penn State and Michigan beats Ohio State. Beyond winning the Big Ten, PSU’s ideal scenario would be to claim a win over the eventual Big Ten champs in a three-way tie, or the committee’s highest-ranked Big Ten team. The Buckeyes have a similar schedule to last year, and a Sept. 23 trip to Notre Dame could help impress the selection committee if Ohio State doesn’t win the Big Ten again. (That’s assuming that the Irish finish the season as a CFP top 25 team again). With road trips to Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Michigan, and an Oct. 21 home game against Penn State, strength of schedule won’t be an issue for Ohio State if it loses a game — especially if it wins the Big Ten. If the Big Ten is going to get two teams in again, its best path is for Penn State or Michigan to win the Big Ten, Ohio State to finish with one loss to either of them, and for the Buckeyes to beat a top-25 Notre Dame team on the road.
Here’s why it won’t: The committee magnifies nonconference schedules if teams don’t win their league titles, and that could be problematic for Michigan and Penn State. Michigan fans don’t want to hear it (again), but if the Wolverines don’t win the Big Ten East, it’s possible they would have only one win against a ranked opponent. Michigan plays East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green in its nonconference schedule, teams that combined for a 19-19 record last year and finished the season unranked. Penn State faces West Virginia, Delaware and UMass in its nonconference — teams unlikely to be ranked at the end of the season.
3. ACC
Top contenders: Clemson, Florida State
FPI says: Less than 1% chance for multiple CFP teams
Agree or disagree: Strongly disagree (it should be much higher!)
Here’s why it will: Strength of schedule and no more divisions in the ACC. Clemson and Florida State can face each other twice — once on Sept. 23 at Clemson and again in the ACC championship game if they finish as the league’s top two teams, which is a strong possibility. Clemson could sneak in without winning the conference thanks in part to a win against Notre Dame if the Irish stay ranked. A road win at rival South Carolina could also prove valuable if coach Shane Beamer’s program takes another step forward and again finishes as a top-25 team. Clemson could have a regular-season win over the ACC champs, but lose a close game to FSU in the conference title game. If that’s the lone loss, the Tigers would still make a compelling argument. The flip side holds true for the Seminoles, who could have regular-season wins against defending SEC West champ LSU, and road wins at Clemson and Florida — but lose to the Tigers in the ACC title game. The same would obviously hold true for both teams if they lost to each other during the regular season but then won the ACC title.
Here’s why it won’t: Inconsistency. Can either of these teams really reach the ACC title game undefeated or with one loss? Their schedules could either catapult them in or knock them out. Clemson’s defense is going to be outstanding, but the Tigers have a new quarterback in Cade Klubnik and new offensive coordinator in Garrett Riley. While expectations are high for both, Florida State, North Carolina and Notre Dame will have the edge in experienced QBs. Florida State beat LSU last year but couldn’t handle Wake Forest, NC State or Clemson, losing three straight.
4. Pac-12
Top contenders: USC, Washington
FPI says: Less than 1% chance for multiple CFP teams
Agree or disagree: Agree
Here’s why it will: It’s a similar scenario to the ACC because without divisions, USC and Washington can face each other on Nov. 4 and again in the conference championship game — just like USC and Utah met twice last year. If they can finish with either one loss or undefeated, the selection committee would consider the Pac-12 champion and its runner-up. If Washington goes undefeated during the regular season, including a road win at USC, but loses to the Trojans in the Pac-12 title game, the Huskies would still be considered, as they’d have a win against the eventual Pac-12 champs on their résumé. The same can be said for USC if the Trojans were to run the table during the regular season but lose to Washington in the conference title game. It’s also possible for either team to lose to each other during the regular season but redeem it with the Pac-12 title. USC has a stronger chance to make it in as a one-loss runner-up because of the opportunity for an Oct. 14 road win at Notre Dame, compared to Washington’s road trip to Michigan State, which finished 5-7 last year. It also helps that there could again be multiple conference opponents ranked, as Washington, Utah, USC, Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA all finished in the committee’s final 2022 ranking.
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Here’s why it won’t: Because the Pac-12 has routinely flopped when it matters the most. Even with Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams, USC didn’t have the defense it needed to beat Utah once in two chances last year. While the Trojans’ defense should improve, it could be the same story this season — another Friday night flop before Selection Day. Before the Pac-12 starts garnering serious consideration for two top-four teams, it needs to prove it can get one in.
5. Big 12
Top contenders: Texas
FPI says: Less than 1% chance for multiple CFP teams
Agree or disagree: Strongly agree
Here’s why it will: Texas beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa means everything in this scenario. The most realistic scenario for the Big 12 to have two CFP teams? An undefeated or one-loss Big 12 champ, plus a one-loss Texas that has a win over SEC champ Alabama. If Texas goes undefeated during the regular season but loses in the Big 12 championship game, the committee would at least consider both the league champ and its runner-up. It could also play out like it did last year, though, when the committee chose the runner-up (TCU) over the Big 12 champion (three-loss Kansas State), depending on what happens during the regular season. The Big 12 is last on the list here in part because the odds decrease significantly if the league doesn’t produce an undefeated conference champ like K-State or Oklahoma, giving the committee little choice but to include the Big 12 champ — and because so much hinges on Texas beating Alabama.
Here’s why it won’t: While the other Power 5 conferences are crowded with more established elite competition, the Big 12 might not have one great team, let alone two. Even the Big 12’s best teams still have something to prove, starting with Texas, which hasn’t lived up to the hype in forever. While there should be improvement at Oklahoma in coach Brent Venables’ second season, the Sooners would need a quantum leap from last year’s 6-7 finish to enter the CFP conversation. Even with a better team, Oklahoma has little to no margin for error because of a nonconference schedule that includes Arkansas State (3-9 last year), SMU (7-6) and Tulsa (5-7). K-State also doesn’t have a strong enough schedule to make a compelling case to the committee without a Big 12 title. The Wildcats open against Southeast Missouri State, Troy and a respectable road trip to Missouri. TCU will have a tough time replicating last year’s CFP appearance without quarterback Max Duggan, running back Kendre Miller and receiver Quentin Johnston.