Inside the QB battles that could shape the College Football Playoff

Training camps kick off this week for select teams (many more follow next week), which means position competitions are resuming in earnest. As always, no group of players will capture more attention than those vying to be QB1 for Week 1.

The number of notable quarterback competitions isn’t overly robust, but several top-shelf programs are included. Of the four CFP teams from 2022, only Michigan (J.J. McCarthy) returns a starter at quarterback. Alabama is set for one of its most wide-open preseason competitions in the Nick Saban era, while in-state rival Auburn also must find its answer after adding Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne.

Teams such as Baylor (incumbent Blake Shapen), BYU (Pitt transfer Kedon Slovis) and Texas Tech (incumbent Tyler Shough) decided their starting quarterbacks in the spring. But others remain unsettled, even those that added big-name transfers, such as Oregon State (D.J. Uiagalelei).

Fourteen quarterbacks were selected in the NFL draft. While some teams have clear replacements — Tennessee‘s Joe Milton III for Hendon Hooker, Penn State‘s Drew Allar for Sean Clifford, TCU‘s Chandler Morris for Max Duggan, Kentucky‘s Devin Leary for Will Levis — others must find answers in the coming weeks, including Florida, UCLA and perhaps even Ohio State.

Here’s a snapshot of the key quarterback competitions around college football, the top candidates and how things could evolve as August rolls along.

2022 starter: Bryce Young (first-round NFL draft pick, No. 1 overall)
2023 candidates: Tyler Buchner, redshirt sophomore; Jalen Milroe, redshirt sophomore; Ty Simpson, redshirt freshman

Forecast: Buchner’s post-spring decision to transfer in, and his prior connection with new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees at Notre Dame, changed the outlook for Alabama’s competition. If Milroe or Simpson had distanced themselves with impressive play, Alabama wouldn’t have been in the market for an impact transfer. Buchner drew good reviews from Notre Dame’s coaches this spring, competing with Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman. “There was a reason why Tyler was the starter last year,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman told ESPN. “Tyler is an extremely talented football player. The problem is, he lost 10 games [to injury].” At Alabama, Buchner is competing with less-proven players in Milroe, who backed up Young in 2022, and Simpson, ESPN’s No. 34 overall recruit in the 2022 class. Milroe led Alabama’s offense for a game and a half when Young injured his shoulder, showcasing strong dual-threat ability by rushing for 172 yards on 23 carries against Arkansas and Texas A&M.

Prediction: Buchner. I could see Milroe getting the nod, but Buchner’s familiarity with Rees and his approach should give him the edge. Both players still need to show they can avoid interceptions — Buchner has eight on 118 career pass attempts, while Milroe was picked off three times on 53 attempts last season.

2022 starter: Robby Ashford (returning)
2023 candidates: Robby Ashford, redshirt sophomore; Payton Thorne, redshirt junior

Forecast: There are a lot of new elements at Auburn, from coach Hugh Freeze to offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery to Thorne, who entered the transfer portal from Michigan State right before the spring window closed. The main holdover is Ashford, who started most of the 2022 season for Auburn and showcased dual-threat ability with 709 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Freeze has had success with mobile quarterbacks and likely will find a role for Ashford even if Thorne wins the job. Thorne had a very good season at MSU in 2021 (3,240 pass yards, 27 touchdowns) and a decent one last fall (2,679 pass yards, 19 touchdowns). He shared a backfield in 2021 with Kenneth Walker III, who won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back and opened things up for Thorne and MSU’s receivers. Without Walker, Thorne took on more with the offense last season, when he had six multi-touchdown games but also only three games without an interception. How quickly he absorbs the Montgomery-Freeze offense in camp will determine whether he wins the job.

Prediction: Thorne. He can’t afford a super slow start to camp and will be behind the learning curve, but his overall mix of experience and talent will carry the day as Freeze wants a reliable Year 1 option for a transitioning Auburn offense.

2022 starters: Trenton Bourguet (returning), Emory Jones (transferred to Cincinnati)
2023 candidates: Bourguet, redshirt senior; Drew Pyne, redshirt sophomore; Jacob Conover, redshirt sophomore; Jaden Rashada, freshman

Forecast: ASU isn’t pegged to contend in the loaded Pac-12, but the team has one of the nation’s most interesting quarterback rooms. First-year coach Kenny Dillingham added three fascinating QBs in his first offseason: Pyne, who started most of last season at Notre Dame; Conover, a BYU transfer whom ESPN rated as the No. 109 overall recruit in 2019; and Rashada, ESPN’s No. 27 recruit in the 2023 class who came to ASU after a lucrative NIL deal with Florida fell apart. Bourguet doesn’t have the recruiting accolades of his competitors, but he performed well during a tough 2022 season, completing 71.1% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Pyne’s performances at Notre Dame spanned the spectrum in 2022, but he has the experience and intangibles to lead the offense. Conover is seemingly a long shot, but Rashada has the most natural gifts of the group and could soon rise up the depth chart. But entering camp, ASU likely is looking at Bourguet or Pyne, and Dillingham wants a clear answer. “Somebody’s got to know he’s the leader,” he said. “Somebody’s got to know he’s the guy and you got to put belief and faith. That dude’s got to believe that if he makes a mistake, he’s not going to get benched in order to play confident and free.”

Prediction: Bourguet. Rashada is likely the long-term answer for ASU, but Dillingham can start his tenure with a veteran who displays accuracy and knows the environment. Bourguet doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, which is essential for a team introducing so many new elements.

2022 starter: Anthony Richardson (first-round NFL draft pick, No. 4 overall)
2023 candidates: Graham Mertz, redshirt junior; Jack Miller III, redshirt sophomore

Forecast: After losing Richardson, Florida is deciding between two Big Ten transfers in Mertz (Wisconsin) and Miller (Ohio State). The key for coach Billy Napier and his staff is to maximize Mertz’s talent while reducing his mistakes, which never consistently happened at Wisconsin. Mertz was Wisconsin’s most decorated quarterback recruit ever — ESPN’s No. 21 overall in the 2019 class — and started 32 games, finishing with 5,405 pass yards, 38 touchdowns, 26 interceptions and only a 59.5% career completion rate. He never became the difference-maker Wisconsin had hoped, and was emblematic of the team’s mini decline that led to coach Paul Chryst’s ouster. He gets another chance in Gainesville but must hold off Miller, who started for Florida in its Las Vegas Bowl loss to Oregon State. Miller appeared in seven games in two seasons for Ohio State before transferring.

Prediction: Mertz. Even though Miller has been at Florida longer, Mertz has a significant edge in meaningful field time. He has also impressed Napier, who at SEC media days lauded Mertz’s experience and described him as “fanatical about his preparation.” Mertz has had issues translating his approach to games, but Florida at least needs to see what it has before giving Miller a chance.

2022 starter: Stetson Bennett (fourth-round NFL draft pick, No. 128 overall)
2023 candidates: Carson Beck, redshirt junior; Brock Vandagriff, redshirt sophomore; Gunner Stockton, redshirt freshman

Forecast: Coach Kirby Smart made it clear last week at SEC media days that Beck is the quarterback to beat entering camp. Beck backed up Bennett last season and will enter his fourth season in the program. Rated as ESPN’s No. 234 prospect in the 2020 class, Beck wasn’t as decorated in recruiting as Vandagriff (No. 37 overall in 2021 class) or Stockton (No. 110 in 2022 class), but he operated the offense very well in Georgia’s spring game and impressed the coaches earlier in his career. “There was a time when the coaching staff had Beck in front of Bennett, so we inherited a pretty good quarterback if we thought this guy was better than Stetson Bennett,” Smart said. Vandagriff also took a good amount of reps with the starting offense this spring, and should get more opportunities at the start of camp. But if he or Stockton doesn’t make a significant move soon, Beck should lock up the job.

Prediction: Beck. Smart has been fairly conservative with his quarterback selections, in part because Georgia’s roster is so strong elsewhere. He prioritizes experience at the position and Beck brings the most. If Beck continues to operate the offense well against one of the nation’s most talented defenses, he should get the QB1 label for 2023.

2022 starter: Malik Cunningham (undrafted, signed with New England Patriots as free agent)
2023 candidates: Jack Plummer, senior; Brock Domann, senior; Evan Conley, senior; Pierce Clarkson, freshman

Forecast: The Louisville quarterback who gets Cardinals fans most excited is coach Jeff Brohm, back in his hometown to run an undeniably exciting offense at his alma mater. But Brohm faces a decision about who will be his first QB1. Domann started four games in place of the injured Cunningham last season and had so-so numbers as the team went 3-1. He had 958 passing yards but also six interceptions, and he only completed 53.9% of his attempts. Conley saw his most significant action in 2019, passing for 613 yards and four touchdowns in seven games as a reserve. Clarkson is an ESPN four-star recruit and the son of noted quarterback coach Steve Clarkson. The biggest spotlight will be on Plummer, who elected to reunite with Brohm, his former coach at Purdue, after a year as Cal‘s starting quarterback. Plummer couldn’t keep the top job at Purdue, but he clearly liked Brohm and the offense enough to vacate a starting spot. While at Purdue in 2020 and 2021, Plummer completed 69.7% of his passes for 1,802 yards with 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

Prediction: Plummer. The familiarity factor with Brohm is too strong to ignore, and he gives a transitioning team some steadiness in Year 1. Plummer overcame a leaky offensive line and other issues at Cal to have a decent season in 2022. Barring a major move by another candidate, he should get the chance to start the Brohm era taking the snaps.

2022 starter: C.J. Stroud (first-round NFL draft pick, No. 2 overall)
2023 candidates: Kyle McCord, junior; Devin Brown, sophomore

Forecast: McCord has the inside track as a third-year player in the program, especially since Brown missed the end of spring practice with a finger injury. Brown must close the gap early in August to make this a genuine competition, although McCord left the door a bit open despite increased opportunities in April. “It’s not over,” an Ohio State source said. “We’ve got two really good quarterbacks. We’re not just going to anoint a guy.” McCord was ESPN’s No. 31 overall recruit in the 2021 class. He arrived with his high school wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., a late bloomer in high school who surged to No. 82 nationally in ESPN’s recruiting rankings. After backing up Stroud, McCord is positioned to lead the offense and rekindle his connection with Harrison on the big stage. Brown, ESPN’s No. 81 overall recruit in 2022, is a better runner than McCord and Stroud, and he could give the offense a slightly different look. “We obviously would like for someone to emerge here quickly, but we’ll kind of have to see once we get on the field,” coach Ryan Day said at Big Ten media days on Wednesday.

Prediction: McCord. Unless he struggles early in camp, the junior should get the first opportunity for the Buckeyes in the opener at Indiana. His familiarity with Day, the offense and Harrison should be enough, although Brown can make things interesting with a surge in the first weeks of camp.

2022 starter: Spencer Sanders (transferred to Ole Miss)
2023 candidates: Alan Bowman, redshirt senior; Garret Rangel, redshirt freshman; Gunnar Gundy, redshirt sophomore

Forecast: Most Big 12 quarterback situations are settled, but Oklahoma State’s will remain open at least through the first few weeks of August. At Big 12 media days, coach Mike Gundy said he would evaluate the QB situation midway through camp and possibly make a decision. He will be picking from a distinct group of contenders that includes Bowman, on his third life after a notable stint at Texas Tech (started games in three seasons and had a productive freshman season in 2018) and a quiet one at Michigan (11 pass attempts in two seasons). He must fend off Rangel, who had 711 passing yards in only four games last season, while playing behind Sanders but also starting three contests. Gunnar Gundy, Mike’s son, had 247 passing yards and three touchdowns last season but was slotted behind Sanders and Rangel. “We’re rotating guys with ones, twos, threes, they’re getting a lot of work,” Mike Gundy said. “We’ll run this thing through half of fall camp, somewhere in that area, and if we feel like we know what direction we want to go, I’m going to be making that decision at that time.”

Prediction: Bowman. He clearly has the experience edge, and while his last meaningful production occurred way back in 2020, he seemed to show little rust toward the end of spring practice. Rangel certainly could be the pick, as he understands the system Gundy and offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn want to run, and would be a multiyear option. But Bowman gets the first shot for the Pokes.

2022 starter: Jaxson Dart (returning)
2023 candidates: Dart, junior; Spencer Sanders, redshirt senior; Walker Howard, redshirt freshman

Forecast: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin clearly likes having options at quarterback, and talented players are flocking to the Sip. Dart, a transfer from USC and a former ESPN top-20 national recruit, had a solid first season as the Ole Miss starter, completing 62.4% of his passes for 2,974 yards with 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. But the Rebels added Howard, an LSU transfer rated as ESPN’s No. 42 overall recruit in the 2022 class. They also made a splash with Sanders, a four-year starter at Oklahoma State who won 31 games and led the Big 12 in total offense in 2021 (3,507 yards). “They obviously can’t say it, but they’re not going to keep taking people if they’re truly happy with what they have,” a Power 5 quarterbacks coach said. Sanders wasn’t at full strength during spring practice but will enter camp at 100 percent, according to Kiffin, thickening the plot in the Rebels’ quarterback race.

Prediction: Sanders. At full strength, Sanders gives Kiffin a productive, proven player who can attack defenses in multiple ways. Few would be shocked if Dart retains the job, but Ole Miss clearly wants options and Sanders provides the best one with 9,553 career passing yards and 67 touchdowns.

2022 starter: Ben Gulbranson (returning)
2023 candidates: Gulbranson, redshirt sophomore; D.J. Uiagalelei, redshirt junior; Aidan Chiles, freshman

Forecast: Despite 10 wins and a No. 17 AP finish last season, Oregon State knew it had to upgrade a passing game that ranked 104th nationally. The team added Uiagalelei, a two-year starter at Clemson and ESPN’s No. 43 overall recruit in the 2020 class. Uiagalelei has a massive frame and a strong arm but has struggled with inconsistency. Gulbranson is still in the mix, while Chiles could be the wild card after an impressive spring as an early enrollee. Uiagalelei wanted a dramatically different offense than the one he ran at Clemson and got one at Oregon State, which asks a lot of its quarterbacks beyond simply executing the pass game. He should be more comfortable with the system after the summer, and will be throwing to a healthier wide receiver group in camp than the one he had in spring practice. “All these reps and learning that he got in spring ball, he can’t take a step back,” coach Jonathan Smith told ESPN. “Throwing, timing, accuracy, he’s got to continue to tighten the detail.” Oregon State’s coaches also are aware of what they have with Chiles, an ESPN four-star recruit. “In this environment now, it’s hard to hold onto a good young player,” Smith said.

Prediction: Uiagalelei. Unless Uiagalelei regressed over the summer, he should get the first opportunity. Smith and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren need to see what they have in the clearly talented Uiagalelei before returning to Gulbranson or giving Chiles a shot. After watching Chiles practice, I think he’s the Beavers’ long-term answer and wouldn’t be surprised to see him log meaningful snaps as a true freshman.

2022 starter: Dorian Thompson-Robinson (fifth-round NFL draft pick, No. 140 overall)
2023 candidates: Dante Moore, freshman; Ethan Garbers, redshirt junior; Collin Schlee, redshirt junior; redshirt freshman Justyn Martin; Chase Griffin, redshirt senior

Forecast: DTR set all of UCLA’s major passing and total offense records, and seeing the Bruins offense without him will be jarring for many. This race to replace him is fascinating, though, as the program’s top recruit in recent memory (Moore) and a transfer with starting experience at Kent State (Schlee) are set to compete with several holdovers. The only question around Moore, ESPN’s No. 2 overall recruit for 2023, is how soon he becomes the Bruins’ starter. “Dante Moore is legit, legit,” said a Big Ten assistant who recruited the Detroit native. “I don’t know who [else] they have, but he might even be the Day 1 starter.” Schlee had 2,109 pass yards and 13 touchdowns last season at Kent State but seems more like an insurance policy for the Bruins. He would really need a strong preseason to distance himself from Moore and Garbers, who backed up DTR the past two seasons and knows coach Chip Kelly’s offense. The race is expected to come down to Moore and Garbers. “The way you keep your entire team happy is that you’re fair with everybody and then things are won on the field, not just because someone came in and they’ve got better accolades than somebody else,” Kelly said last week at Pac-12 media days.

Prediction: Moore. He’s talented enough to start right away for UCLA, and there’s not much downside to starting his clock immediately. Unless Garbers clearly separates himself in camp, which is possible given his experience, Moore should get the first shot in what looks like a bridge year for the Bruins before moving to the Big Ten in 2024.