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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
Before the puck was dropped for the 2023-24 NHL season, we made bold predictions for all 32 NHL teams. They ranged from Stanley Cup Playoff prognostications to breakout seasons to signings to firings.
Many of those bold predictions are on the path to fulfilment, including one that already came true. But some of these predictions are … less successful, including one that was wrong already.
As the NHL season passes its quarter mark, here’s a progress report on our bold predictions. We’ll rate each prediction on a 1-10 scale, with “1” indicating that the prediction absolutely will not come true and “10” indicating that I absolutely nailed it. Enjoy!
Atlantic Division
The prediction: The Bruins make the playoffs
Now, you’re going to have remember what this prediction looked like before the season. When Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci had retired, and Tyler Bertuzzi and Taylor Hall were squeezed out by the salary cap, and there were real questions about how the Bruins would recover after squandering the best regular season in NHL history with a first-round upset loss to the Panthers.
That was before they started 9-0-1. Before Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman confirmed their status as the league’s top goalie tandem. Before David Pastrnak started building an MVP case by leading his team in scoring by double digits. Before the Bruins showed they’re still the Bruins.
Now, this prediction has gotten a little bolder lately as the Bruins lost four of five games and also lost the thread defensively. But they have an 82.3% chance of making the postseason, per Money Puck. I’ll take it.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
The prediction: The internet discovers JJ Peterka
John-Jason “JJ” Peterka has been fantastic for the Sabres, with nine goals and eight assists in 22 games. He’s notched 14 of his 17 points at even strength, which is outstanding. Buffalo might have something with Peterka, Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson; if not, a reunion between Peterka and Jack Quinn is on the horizon when the latter returns from his Achilles tendon injury.
But I thought Peterka had the quirkiness to enchant the internet with his goofball charms, and we haven’t gotten there yet. Maybe once the Sabres (finally) turn the corner to playoff contender, Peterka-mania will run wild.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
The prediction: Lucas Raymond has his breakout
Thanks in part to a lower-body injury, Raymond took a step back last season after 57 points in 82 games as a 19-year-old rookie. Detroit star Dylan Larkin said Raymond had “a chip on his shoulder” heading into Year 3 in the NHL. He’s certainly played like it through the first quarter of the schedule.
Raymond has 16 points in 20 games; eight goals, eight assists. He’s earned the chance to play on Larkin’s wing and has produced so far. His goals and points are running ahead of his rookie pace. If he continues to hold his spot on Detroit’s top line, it’s pointing towards a Lucas Raymond breakout season. Although recent developments have certainly altered the Red Wings’ right wing depth chart…
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
The prediction: Patrick Kane joins the Panthers
OK, so they can’t all be winners. In fairness, Florida was right there in the running for Kane before he signed with the Red Wings, as the Cats offered a chance to play alongside Aleksander Barkov. But close only counts in horseshoes and goalie interference reviews.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 1
The prediction: Kirby Dach becomes a sold No. 2 center
I think Dach has all the tools to become a very good No. 2 center for the Canadiens behind Nick Suzuki. We’re just going to have to wait to see it.
Dach tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee during the Canadiens’ home opener and was ruled out for the rest of the season. That’s one reason why the Habs’ offense has lingered near the bottom five of the league this season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 1
The prediction: The Senators make the playoffs
As of Wednesday night, the Senators have a 6.8% chance of making the Stanley Cup Playoff this season. They’re in last place in the Atlantic Division, although they’ve played the fewest games. Their .471 points percentage is second-worst in the conference.
They fired GM Pierre Dorion after the NHL docked them a first-round pick after an investigation into a Evgenii Dadonov trade in 2020. Center Shane Pinto was suspended for the first 41 games of the season by the NHL for activities relating to sports wagering. Thomas Chabot has been limited to just seven games due to injury. After Edmonton and Minnesota made early-season coaching changes, all eyes are on the status of D.J. Smith. Things are not great.
Like with Jay Woodcroft and Dean Evason, a lot of the heat on Smith comes from the goal crease. Free agent coup Joonas Korpisalo has been a replacement-level goalie. Anton Forsberg, one of the NHL’s hidden gems for two seasons, has been a sieve. If that turns around, so will the Senators, and there’s still enough runway left for them to take off, eh?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 4
The prediction: The Lightning miss the playoffs
The basis of my thesis here was that the atrophy in the Lightning’s depth was going to finally catch up with them. That they lost nearly a dozen players from their championship run and didn’t sufficiently replace them. This was underscored when GM Julien BriseBois said “I need to see how the pieces of the puzzle fit this year” in reference to how much he could pay Steven Stamkos on his next contract, nodding towards the room for improvement.
My miscalculation was focusing more on the supporting cast than the names at the top of the movie poster. Nikita Kucherov led the NHL in points after 22 games. Brayden Point has 30 points in 23 games. Brandon Hagel, Stamkos and Victor Hedman were all over a point per game to start the season.
The Bolts have scored their way out of early-season trouble, as Andrei Vasilevskiy missed the first 20 games of the season after surgery. They were sixth in goals per game (3.48) after 23 games, but an un-Lightning like 27th in goals-against average (3.52). Getting Vasilevskiy back will obviously help the latter number.
Money Puck has the Bolts with a 79.1% chance of making the playoffs, the 10th best odds in the NHL at the moment. That established, they’re in a wild-card spot that will have a number of teams — the Penguins, Devils, Islanders and perhaps the Sabres — chasing it.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
The prediction: The Maple Leafs win two playoff rounds
It’s come to my attention that winning two playoff rounds is contingent on actually making the playoffs, which has unnerved me a bit about this bold prediction. When the Toronto Maple Leafs round the quarter mark and have as many regulation wins as the San Jose Sharks — a team built to lose games! — therein lies a problem.
Money Puck has the Leafs with a 58.7% chance of making the playoffs, which is less than Florida, Boston, Tampa Bay and Detroit. And the Rangers and Carolina and Pittsburgh and New Jersey. That’s eight teams right there. Until the NHL wakes up to the fact they’re leaving millions on the table by not expanding the playoff field, that’s all they let in.
Ilya Samsonov hasn’t been good and neither has the team defense in front of him. Those offseason additions meant to put them over the top have struggled to make a difference. There’s been considerable speculation about Sheldon Keefe’s job status, and we’re in November. Oh, and the Atlantic Division might have actually gotten tougher to advance through than it was last season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 4
Metropolitan Division
The prediction: Brett Pesce isn’t traded
He has, in fact, not been traded, despite rampant speculation that the Hurricanes could move him for scoring help. That was due to their defensive depth and the lack of a contract extension for Pesce, who is an unrestricted free agent next summer.
“I was hoping and praying I would be here and thankful I still am,” he told the News & Observer.
Now, will he remain in Raleigh for the rest of the season? The Hurricanes aren’t exactly known for moving core roster pieces during the season, but it’s not unheard of, either: Please recall the trade that sent Vincent Trocheck to the Panthers in 2020, when he was in the midst of a six-year deal. The Hurricanes, as expected, are contending for a playoff spot. Pesce and Brady Skjei have been an effective pairing behind Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns. One assumes he sticks around this season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
The prediction: Jarmo Kekalainen is fired before the offseason
This prediction was made after the calamitous hiring of Mike Babcock as the team’s head coach, who resigned after two months after allegations that he violated players’ privacy. In the aftermath of that embarrassment for the franchise, Kekalainen might have already been bounced if it wouldn’t have just added to the preseason distractions for the team. It was made clear that his future with the Blue Jackets would be tied to on-ice performance.
The Blue Jackets had a .391 points percentage through 23 games, which was the third-lowest in the NHL. If it’s on-ice performance that determines Kekalainen’s fate, the Magic 8-ball tells us “outlook not so good.”
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
The prediction: Nico Hischier wins the Selke Trophy
Hischier has been limited to nine games this season due to injury, tallying five points. The Devils were fourth in expected goals against last season and were ninth this season after 20 games. They’re 28th overall in goals against per game (3.65).
If their defensive numbers improve and he stays healthy, Hischier probably gets a longer look from voters. He was second in the voting last season, which means he’s on the radar. And there’s no Patrice Bergeron to hog the award anymore.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
The prediction: Mathew Barzal grows his hair back
Barzal was one of two New York hockey stars that hit the barber shop before the season to snip off their trademark hair. Here’s a status check for the Islanders star and Artemi Panarin of the New York Rangers:
New York hockey shorn locks status check pic.twitter.com/qk1gyNxBhy
— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) November 29, 2023
As you can see, there’s no trace of Panarin’s cherubic locks and Barzal still looks like he joined the ROTC. It’s worked for Panarin, who had 30 points in his first 20 games. Barzal had 19 points in his first 21 games, which was slightly ahead of his points-per-60 minutes average last season. The reverse Samson is working! Alas, that doesn’t portend good things for the prediction.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 3
The prediction: Kaapo Kakko takes flight
Whoa, that’s weird: The words “Kaapo Kakko” appeared in the initial column when I clearly meant to predict that Alexis Lafrenière would take flight this season…
The silver lining here is that the Rangers did get one of their young players to have a breakout start to the season, as Lafrenière was third on the team with eight goals in 20 games. But Kakko, sadly, remained grounded with two goals and one assist in 20 games. They tried him on Mika Zibanejad‘s line, where he fared well last season, but that didn’t stick. Kakko’s average ice time dropped by nearly two minutes per game.
Now, a lower-body injury suffered this week has Kakko on long-term injured reserve, with a source telling ESPN that he will miss “a significant amount of time.”
Bold prediction confidence rating: 2
The prediction: Sean Couturier will be comeback player of the year
From 2021-23, Couturier missed 135 games to injury for the Flyers. Which was a huge bummer, because the Philadelphia forward had established himself as one of the NHL’s top two-way players, having won the Selke Trophy in 2019-20. His return to action has been one of a handful of happy stories during the Flyers’ surprising start.
Could he be the comeback player of the year? Sure. Couturier has 14 points in 20 games, including five goals. He’s been good defensively too, as the Flyers have a 2.17 expected goals against with him on the ice. The longer the Flyers hang in the playoff picture, the more attention Couturier’s comeback season will garner.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
The prediction: Erik Karlsson plays completely
Many of us were wondering what Karlsson would look like in an environment that’s more about looking at the playoff standings rather than side-eyeing a lottery machine. Which is to say the expectations for a defenseman are a bit different in losing season in San Jose than as a player expected to help the Penguins contend for a Stanley Cup.
So how has Karlsson fared with the Penguins as a two-way player? Pretty good so far. He has 18 points in 21 games, skating to a plus-7. Pittsburgh has a plus-10 goal differential and its goalies have a .931 save percentage with Karlsson on the ice at 5-on-5. His pairing with Marcus Pettersson is one of the best in the NHL this season, as the Penguins average 4.13 goals and give up only 1.62 goals against per 60 minutes when they’re on the ice together.
It remains to be seen if Karlsson puts the Penguins over the top as a contender, but it won’t because the reigning Norris Trophy winner isn’t playing a complete game.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
The prediction: Alex Ovechkin will score his 850th career goal on Jan. 18, 2024, against the Blues
We arrived at this very, very specific prediction by looking at the past three complete seasons for Ovechkin and averaging out the number of games it took him to score his 28th goal in all of them. Obviously, if those trends held, Ovechkin would score goal No. 850 on Jan. 18 against the Blues.
If you purchased tickets for that game in the hopes of seeing that feat accomplished … you’re going to need the Russian Machine to find another gear. Ovechkin scored five goals in his first 18 games, the slowest goal-scoring pace of his career to open a season. That gives him 827 goals for his career. So, to hit our target date, Ovechkin will have to score 23 goals in his next 24 games.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 1
Central Division
The prediction: André Tourigny gets Jack Adams nomination
The Coyotes have been the epitome of “there” this season. They’re a .500 team through 20 games, with a plus-2 goal differential. They were 16th in scoring and 16th in goals-against average in that span. They’re the ham and cheese on whole wheat bread; which, in fairness, is better than some of the other sandwiches to which they’ve been compared in the past. Arizona has a 40.8% chance of making the playoffs, per Money Puck. As currently constituted, “mid” might be good enough to earn a wild card in the Western Conference this season.
It’s a crowded Jack Adams field already, with coaches like Peter Laviolette, Rick Tocchet, Derek Lalonde, John Tortorella and last year’s winner Jim Montgomery building strong cases. If the Coyotes find a home in the postseason, I think the novelty of the achievement could propel Tourigny into the top three. But as we’ve all seen, the Coyotes finding a home is always the difficult part.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
The prediction: Connor Bedard scores at least 35 goals
The Blackhawks’ sensational freshman is on pace for around 43 goals this season, which would be the second-highest total for a first-year player in the last 30 years, behind Alex Ovechkin‘s 52 goals in 2005-06.
One Canadian sportsbook set Bedard’s total at 32.5 goals for wagering purposes before the season. I thought that was low. I didn’t think he’d quite get to Auston Matthews‘ rookie total of 40 goals, but he’s outpacing him now. Injuries, the rookie wall, the general terribleness of the Blackhawks on the ice … it’s all a concern. But even if Bedard slows his roll, I think he nets 35 goals.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
The prediction: Cale Makar scores 102 points
I made this prediction because I figured that (a) Makar would be salty for not winning the Norris Trophy last season, finishing third and (b) Makar would ease that saltiness by scoring exactly one more point than Erik Karlsson‘s total last season.
Makar’s previous high was 86 points in 77 games back in 2021-22, which nets out to around 92 points in an 82-game season. This season, Makar posted 32 points through 21 games, which puts him on pace for a 124-point season. That would be the fifth-highest point total in NHL history for a defenseman, and the highest since Paul Coffey posted 138 points in the 1985-86 season with the Gretzky Oilers. Makar’s on a mission … but even if he eclipses Karlsson’s total from last season, he still might not win the Norris: Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes has been right next to him in point pace through 22 games, and the Norris voters love a first-time winner.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
The prediction: Jake Oettinger wins the Vezina Trophy
To check on Oettinger’s progress as a Vezina candidate, I went to Money Puck’s goalie rankings for goals saved above expected. And I scrolled and I scrolled and I scrolled and I finally found the Stars goalie down at No. 19 on the season, with 1.4 goals saved above expected. His traditional stats are good but not elite: .911 save percentage and a 2.71 goals-against average in 14 starts.
Dallas has a .684 points percentage through 19 games, and Oettinger has an 8-4-2 record. He’s a netminder that can really get rolling for a few weeks, so I’m not counting him out of the Vezina mix yet. But he’s clearly behind Thatcher Demko, and maybe a few others, for best goalie in the West this season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
The prediction: Bill Guerin becomes a sneaky seller
This might have been my most serendipitous prediction. I thought GM Bill Guerin might get aggressive in reshaping his veteran roster by trading some players who were headed towards unrestricted free agency next summer. Instead, he handed out contract extensions to Mats Zuccarello (two years), Marcus Foligno (four years) and Ryan Hartman (three years). Only Alex Goligoski, Pat Maroon, Zach Bogosian and Marc-Andre Fleury are unsigned after this season.
What I didn’t anticipate is that the Wild would have a 23% chance of making the playoffs after 19 games, firing head coach Dean Evason and hiring John Hynes in the hopes of turning things around. If that doesn’t happen — and if the goaltending doesn’t improve in Minnesota, it won’t — then it’s possible Guerin gets aggressive in trying to open up cap space this team desperately needs. He already played one of his major remaining cards in firing Evason and hiring his guy in Hynes, whom he’s known since their days with the Penguins organization. Disappointment and desperation could lead to changes in the dressing room, too.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
The prediction: Nashville makes the playoffs
I watched the Predators a few times earlier this season and liked what I saw: Squint hard enough, and their aggressive speed game resembled the type of hockey the Devils played last season when Preds head coach Andrew Brunette was on their bench. But they weren’t generating enough goals and Juuse Saros wasn’t on his game. The prediction did not appear to be a solid one.
Then, around Nov. 18, the Predators found another gear, scoring 23 goals in five straight wins to climb back up the standings and back to .500. The recipe for their success was good vibes, offensive swagger and great goaltending. That’s all come together in the last few games, but Nashville is on a considerable homestand right now, with nine of 10 games in Nashville and the only road game — an 8-3 thumping of the Blues — in nearby St. Louis. I’m optimistic, but proceeding with caution.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
The prediction: Jordan Binnington gets his first fighting major
On our podcast The Drop, I joked that there was a chance Binnington might have more fighting majors than wins this season … and then he goes out and has an outstanding first two months of the season, carrying the Blues to a playoff seed as of American Thanksgiving. So, you’re welcome, St. Louis.
He’s cooled off a little bit, but he was still top 10 in goals saved above expected as of Tuesday night. Somewhere lurking inside Jordan Binnington is that “Slap Shot”-like agent of chaos who loves taunting opposing benches and nearly came to blows with Marc-Andre Fleury of all people last season. But how can I confidently predict he will have a fighting major when Binnington didn’t even have a minor penalty through 15 games? Here I am saying he’s going to drop the gloves this season, and he might end up winning the Lady Byng!
Bold prediction confidence rating: 3
The prediction: Connor Hellebuyck re-signs in Winnipeg
I had some naysayers here, probably because they were hoping one of the best goalies in the NHL would get traded or walk from Winnipeg as a free agent next summer. But I got the sense as early as the NHL draft that Hellebuyck would stick around the ‘Peg.
Their cap was set up to pay him handsomely, and they wouldn’t shy away from giving him term. The number of desirable locations that could match the Jets’ offer next summer was more limited than you’ve think. And, above all else: His stuff was in Winnipeg. Guys don’t want to leave their stuff.
So on Oct. 9, the first bold prediction came to pass. Hellebuyck signed a seven-year contract with an $8.5 million average annual value to remain with the Jets. Forward Mark Scheifele actually signed an identical contract that day to also stay in Winnipeg, which admittedly I didn’t see coming. Luckily, I didn’t try to predict that one.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 10
Pacific Division
The prediction: The Ducks’ anniversary jersey becomes their primary one
As I mentioned in my preseason column, this is more of a long-range projection rather than a bold prediction for this season. But I’m sticking to it.
As leading goal scorer Frank Vatrano told ESPN’s Linda Cohn, “The Mighty Ducks” was his favorite movie and playing for Anaheim in these sweaters makes it feel like “being a kid again.” Ducks fly together. Quack, quack, quack.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
The prediction: Andrew Mangiapane has a monster rebound year
The Bread Man has been absolutely dominant this season and is among the early frontrunners for the Hart Trophy as league MVP.
We’re of course talking about Artemi Panarin of the New York Rangers, who had 30 points in his first 20 games. As for Mangiapane, he’s having a bounce-back season, with 13 points in 21 games. He’s ahead of his goals, assists and points per 60 minutes averages from last season. It’s not a monster rebound, but it’s a rebound, and we still have ample time to get monstrous this season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
The prediction: The Oilers will play for the Stanley Cup
Well that got a little intense, didn’t it? The early-season panic that saw the Oilers demote Jack Campbell, fire coach Jay Woodcroft and struggle under the crushing expectations of being a Stanley Cup glamour pick that couldn’t beat the San Jose Sharks.
By now, fellow true believers, you’ve no doubt relocated to a more comfortable seat on the bandwagon after others vacated it. You’ve also no doubt noticed that those who jumped off are now trying to climb on again.
Connor McDavid is back to doing everything, from scoring goals to hiring coaches. (We kid … sorta.) The defense has nominally improved. They’re winning the kind of games they weren’t winning earlier this season. They don’t look like a team that can play for the Stanley Cup yet, but they look like a team that could qualify for the playoffs, and that’s progress.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
The prediction: Cam Talbot proves to be the answer
The Kings took some inspiration from the Vegas Golden Knights in the offseason: That an outstanding group of skaters, in front of goaltending that’s average but not a liability, could combine for playoff success. So they ran it back with Pheonix Copley, brought in Talbot and have David Rittich stashed away in the AHL.
The hope was that Talbot could be the guy, having by far the most experience as a starter. So far, the gamble has paid off: Talbot has over double the starts of Copley and has gone 10-3-1 with a .931 save percentage and a 2.02 goals-against average in 14 games. The 36-year-old has 8.1 goals saved above expected.
The team in front of him has been as good as advertised, ranking first overall in expected goals against per 60 minutes through 19 games. They have a plus-29 goal differential. They’re really good, and might have found the goalie that just needs to be competent behind them.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
The prediction: The Sharks win the NHL draft lottery
Through 22 games, the Sharks are 5-15-2, which is honestly a better record than we expected at the quarter mark. The team has a remarkable minus-54 goal differential, giving up a league-high four goals per game and scoring a league low 1.64 goals per game. They’re a special kind of terrible. A perfect organism of failure, by design.
The Sharks have never won an NHL draft lottery. For most of their existence they couldn’t win the lottery, because they missed the playoffs only four times from 1995 to 2019. But if things keep regressing as expected, they’ll have a 25.5% shot at securing a player that could refocus this franchise and re-energize an atrophied fan base. If only the lottery wasn’t so fickle towards the worst of the worst: Only eight of the last 18 teams that had the best lottery odds secured the first overall pick.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
The prediction: The Kraken take a step back
With their loss to the Blackhawks on Tuesday, the Kraken are now 8-10-5 through 23 games this season. After 23 games last season, Seattle was 15-5-3. Look, I’m no math major, but …
The primary reason I thought the Kraken would take a step back this season? Because they were, in the parlance of the analytics community, “riding the PDO train” in 2022-23. That’s the combined measurement of shooting percentage and save percentage, and they were seventh in the NHL last season. This season? They’re 27th overall. Their 10.3% shooting percentage last season was completely unsustainable, and Seattle has expectedly dipped down to 7.8% in 23 games this season. Hence, their goals-per-game average has dipped from fourth in 2022-23 to 26th in the NHL in 2023-24.
Add in goaltending that’s played to a below-replacement level and Seattle has taken a step back in the first quarter of the schedule. But they’re still in the playoff hunt and have a lot of time to course correct.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
The prediction: The Elias Pettersson contract speculation will loom over everything
I’m sure there’s been plenty of discussion about Pettersson’s next contract in Vancouver, as the Canucks’ star center is a restricted free agent next summer. It’s just hard to hear it over the bellowing screams of euphoria as Canucks fans witness one of the most electrifying starts in franchise history.
It’s hard to see the hand-wringing about Pettersson’s deal with fans are using both hands to calculate the stats of their core of star players. Did you know that Pettersson, J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes are the first trio of teammates to each record 30 points in 23 games or fewer since the 1989-99 Los Angeles Kings with Wayne Gretzky, Luc Robitaille and Bernie Nicholls? Yeah, they’ve been that good.
The vibes are too immaculate to worry about re-signing one of the team’s most important players. At this point, he should be paying them to stay.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 2
The prediction: Logan Thompson reclaims the crease
Please recall that Thompson started last season with a 12-4-0 record and was lights-out for most of it as a rookie sensation. But his stats declined before two injuries basically cost him his season after Jan. 28. Eventually, it was Adin Hill who played his way into Vegas hockey lore as the goalie who led the Golden Knights to their first Stanley Cup championship.
That earned Hill a new two-year contract. Like many, I expected the clock would strike midnight and he’d turn back into a pumpkin this season. In fact, I think much of the punditry overlooked the chance that the Golden Knights might repeat as champion because they ran it back with Hill.
The early results indicate this was an absolutely idiotic take. Vegas is near the top of the conference, and Hill started 9-2-2 with a .933 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average with two shutouts.
Thompson has played well, too, but Hill’s got the crease so far this season. Like the rest of the Knights during the first quarter of the season, it’s like the Stanley Cup Final never ended for Hill.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5