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Brett Okamoto, ESPN Staff Writer
The UFC is officially on break until 2024 and the final fight card of the year delivered some incredible knockouts, dominating performances and a fight of the year candidate. But as we shut the door on 2023, the main event of UFC 296 will remain a hot topic of discussion.
Leon Edwards easily handled Colby Covington to retain the welterweight title Saturday in Las Vegas. The speed and precision of Edwards was too much for Covington, who was making his first appearance in the Octagon in nearly two years.
Prior to Edwards’ win, Alexandre Pantoja put on a clinic against Brandon Royval, taking down the challenger over and over again. He coasted in his first title defense and looks ahead to a 2024, when he could bring some stability at the top of the flyweight division.
Then there was Shavkat Rakhmonov, who once again didn’t need any judges to secure another win. Rakhmonov’s victory over Stephen Thompson was impressive, but is a title shot the right booking for the undefeated welterweight?
Who’s next for the champions and biggest standout fighters of the night? Let’s take a look:
Leon Edwards, welterweight champion
Who should be next: Belal Muhammad
Nothing to really discuss here. Edwards has talked about moving up, and there is actually a case for it. He’s only defended his title twice, but he’s won 12 in a row. He’s taken out Kamaru Usman twice. Now Colby Covington. You can’t say the man doesn’t deserve big opportunities, but at the end of the day, he’s got work to do as a champion. That’s just the reality.
Muhammad has won nine in a row and looked particularly impressive lately. He took a short notice fight against Gilbert Burns earlier this year and put his streak on the line. He’s done what the UFC has asked. He’s won the fights. He’s next.
Wild card: Middleweight title shot
Like I said, you can make an argument for Edwards to do just about anything, because he’s been so impressive for so long. He deserves to make demands and have them heard. But again, there’s work to do in the division, and historically, that always comes first before any move up in weight.
Colby Covington, welterweight
Who should be next: Gilbert Burns
No other way to say it, but this was a weird night for Covington. Obviously, give Edwards a ton of credit for that.
Covington did not look comfortable at UFC 296, and you can’t blame that all on a layoff. Edwards looked sharp and Covington had nothing for him on Saturday. Covington made it clear he wants to return soon and promised he’ll be better. He still has a number next to his name and should be ranked appropriately — and that means a fight with Burns.
Covington didn’t look great in his last fight and neither did Burns, who fought Muhammad on a quick turnaround (and injured his arm early in that fight). This one doesn’t have a lot of heat, certainly not as much as some of Covington’s latest matchups, but it’s the easy call to make.
Wild card: Dustin Poirier
The UFC is about selling pay-per-views, right? Usually that’s title fights. But sometimes it’s BMF belts or grudge matches and there’s an easy grudge match to sell between Covington and Poirier.
The two are former teammates at American Top Team. Covington started the beef with disparaging remarks of Poirier seemingly out of nowhere years ago, and Poirier’s anger toward those remarks is clearly genuine. Poirier has even said he will never fight Covington in the Octagon, because he doesn’t want to play any part in him ever making money.
But money talks and right now, neither of these two are in line for any kind of title fight — and they won’t be any time soon. So, if the UFC decides to float the idea for the sake of selling some views, anything is possible.
Alexandre Pantoja, flyweight champion
Who should be next: Winner of Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi on Feb. 24
The idea of a fourth (!) fight between Pantoja and Moreno doesn’t do a ton for me (even though it’s always a fun matchup) and I doubt it does that much for the fan base in general, but this is how things work.
If Moreno beats Albazi, in a fight that’s been scheduled for five rounds, I’d be surprised if he’s not next. Same goes for Albazi. Perhaps, if Moreno wins, and something else spectacular happens in the division, we could see someone leapfrog Moreno, but as of now, the winner of this matchup is the favorite to fight for the belt next.
Wild card: Winner of Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape on Jan. 13
Here’s an interesting caveat. UFC president Dana White has already talked about blowing out its Mexican celebration night of UFC Noche in September. If Moreno wins, maybe the UFC would hold his title shot until September. And if that’s the case, maybe it will go with Pantoja vs. the winner of this fight sometime before.
Shavkat Rakhmonov, welterweight
Who should be next: Kamaru Usman
It’s kind of the only thing that makes sense, but it’s not likely to happen. Usman has already said he has no intention of fighting Rakhmonov unless it’s for a title, as they’ve trained together in South Florida. Usman is also simply at the point of his career where even if that weren’t the case, he probably wouldn’t be interested in the fight.
Still, I have to list it as “should be next” because it’s literally the only thing that makes sense. Belal Muhammad (deservedly) is only interested in fighting for a championship. Rakhmonov and Gilbert Burns, the only other welterweight ranked ahead of him, are also teammates at Kill Cliff FC. It’s a pickle.
Wild card: Belal Muhammad
If for whatever reason, a welterweight title shot is not available to Muhammad for a lengthy period, the UFC could ask him to fight again. We’ve seen stranger things. Beyond that, though, it’s hard to come up with anything for Rakhmonov other than wait and possibly weigh in as an alternate in a future title fight.
Paddy Pimblett, lightweight
Who should be next: Benoit Saint Denis
So, here’s the deal. At some point, the UFC’s mindset on Pimblett was always going to turn from What matchup builds him up? to Alright, if he loses this next one, who would we be OK with him losing to?
In other words, Pimblett is now “built” in a sense. Now, it’s time for some tough fights, and if he happens to lose, the UFC certainly wouldn’t mind that loss coming to another name it would like to build. That’s where I get Saint Denis.
Saint Denis has shown a ton of potential. He’s 27 and ranked No. 12 in a wickedly deep division. Some will definitely say this is throwing Pimblett to the wolves, and … it is. But he’s 5-0 and he’s been a betting favorite in each of his appearances. Give him a shot at a ranked opponent and make that ranked opponent someone who would benefit from beating someone of Pimblett’s popularity.
Wild card: Jim Miller
Miller fights Gabriel Benitez next month, but he’s repeatedly said he would like to fight at UFC 300 in April. He’s previously fought at UFC 100 and 200. He is the UFC’s Ironman. Fans know and love him. Even with all the tread on his tires, he would be a very legitimate fight for Pimblett and he’d bring name recognition.
Josh Emmett, featherweight
Who should be next: Giga Chikadze
Unbelievable knockout, man. Just scary. Even when you’ve seen Emmett’s power, it’ll still shock you like it did on Saturday.
I don’t know what Emmett’s title aspirations look like at age 38, coming off back-to-back losses earlier this year. With knockout capability like that, you can’t say it’s impossible for him to still reach the top. It would require the right wins and a few other dominos to fall, but man, when you’ve got lights out power like that, anything can happen.
This fight was supposed to be against Chikadze, and I think the obvious thing is to go ahead and rebook it.
Wild card: Winner of Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev on Jan. 20
If Chikadze is unavailable, the winner of this fight could be on the same timeline as Emmett. Emmett was actually supposed to fight Arnold in 2020, but pulled out with an injury.
Personally, I expect it to be Chikadze, but depending on everyone’s timing, this is another likely option.
Cody Garbrandt, bantamweight
Who should be next: Dominick Cruz
I liked Garbrandt’s callout of Deiveson Figueiredo, the two were supposed to fight for the flyweight championship in 2020, but if we’re just being real, Figueiredo is going to want (and deserves) a higher ranked opponent.
What’s up with Cruz? He hasn’t fought since August 2022, when he lost to Marlon Vera (who is fighting for the belt next). Cruz is still very highly ranked, but he’s the definition of someone sitting on a ranking. I’m sure Cruz is a little tired of hearing about Garbrandt’s “perfect” fight against him back in 2016, when he won the 135-pound championship. There’s a lot of history with this matchup. It makes sense.
Wild card: Adrian Yanez
Garbrandt is on a two-fight winning streak, while Yanez is on a two-fight skid. That alone makes the fight unlikely. But tell me who doesn’t want to see it?
Yanez has lost some luster, but both of his losses came against ranked opponents. He hasn’t fallen off completely. If Garbrandt beats him, it means something. If Yanez wins, it means something. And stylistically, it’s a beautiful boxing matchup. Would be a great fight, and draw plenty of eyeballs.