Conn Smythe Watch: Swayman, McDavid, Zibanejad among leaders for playoffs MVP

Greg Wyshynski, ESPNMay 6, 2024, 09:30 AM ET
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Boston Bruins coach Jim Montgomery knows a thing or two about how quickly narratives can shift in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

“The first round is the wild, wild West. Always is,” he said after Boston won Game 7 against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

That goes for the race for the Conn Smythe Trophy, too. Every week, new heroes emerge in the race for playoff MVP, while previous front-runners fade to the background.

With the NHL postseason down to its final eight teams, here are the favorites, the players on the cusp and the candidates who have a little more ground to make up in the race.

This list was compiled through conversations with those around the league, including some who may be part of the 18-person panel of Professional Hockey Writers Association members who will eventually vote on the award.

The favorites

After the Bruins’ Game 7 overtime victory to eliminate the Toronto Maple Leafs, coach Jim Montgomery endorsed his goalie as the main reason they made Round 2.

“He was our best player in the series. It’s not close, right? And I think that his confidence and his swagger, I think it permeated through the group,” the coach said.

Swayman had a .950 save percentage and a 1.49 goals-against average in six games for the Bruins. He has a playoff-leading 7.44 goals saved above expected. He won Game 1 and then rode the bench in Game 2 while Linus Ullmark took his turn in the goalie rotation. That rotation ended with Ullmark’s loss and Swayman’s tremendous play in wins in Games 3 and 4 in Toronto.

He continued his stellar play even as the Maple Leafs tied the series. Swayman was brilliant in Game 7, stopping 30 of 31 shots before David Pastrnak‘s overtime goal to end it. Swayman’s play and general comportment helped Boston unload some baggage it was carrying from last postseason’s first-round collapse, helping the B’s to avoid becoming the first team in NHL, NBA or Major League Baseball history to blow 3-1 series leads in consecutive postseasons.

While other Oilers players have a statistical case for MVP, it’s still McDavid that’s driving the bus. Zach Hyman has seven goals in the playoffs, tied for the league lead. McDavid assisted on five of them. Leon Draisaitl has five goals. McDavid had the primary assist on four of them.

Edmonton’s greatest asset in the postseason so far has been its power play, a symphony of offense that McDavid conducts with his agility and vision. His 12 points (1 goal, 11 assists) lead the playoffs entering Round 2. McDavid told ESPN before the season that he considers the postseason a series of two-week chunks. “The better team in those two weeks wins,” he said. No skater was better than McDavid in the opening two weeks.

After an inconsistent playoff run last season for the Stars — thanks in no small part to Oettinger getting overplayed down the regular-season stretch — the Dallas goalie fortified his reputation as a postseason hero with a .925 save percentage, a 1.95 goals-against average and a strong 22-save performance in Game 7 against Vegas.

“He’s got that mentality that great goaltenders do,” Dallas coach Pete DeBoer said during the series. “They can go to that next level at the most important part of the game.”

Boeser’s numbers are strong after the Canucks’ first-round series win over Nashville, with four goals and two assists.

But it wasn’t how much he scored, but when he scored: the eventual game-winner in Game 3; his hat trick in Game 4, including two goals in the final three minutes of regulation that sent the game to overtime, where the Canucks won it; and his assist on Pius Suter‘s deciding goal in their 1-0 elimination win in Game 6.

The Rangers have won five playoff games in a row, including their second-round Game 1 win against the Hurricanes. That victory was a microcosm of Zibanejad’s playoffs so far: Making a difference at 5-on-5 with the game’s opening goal while fueling the Rangers’ potent power play, where he has scored six of his 10 playoff points.

He’s a heart-and-soul player for the Presidents’ Trophy winners, playing in all situations.

The Panthers have their share of MVP candidates, but Verhaeghe has the slight edge right now. His five goals leads the team, with one of them coming in overtime in Game 2, which stopped any momentum the Tampa Bay Lightning might have generated before heading back home. That was the fifth playoff overtime goal of his career.

Overall, he has nine points in five games, tied with Matthew Tkachuk for tops on the Cats.

Can the same thing happen to the same guy twice? Makar won the Conn Smythe when the Avalanche won the Cup in 2022, and the star defenseman has been arguably their best player so far with nine points in five games as Colorado advanced to the second round to face Dallas.

There’s a ton of competition for MVP honors on the Avalanche right now — among the skaters and in the crease — but those who cover the team say Makar has the edge.

The winger has been one of the most tenacious forwards in the playoffs, with four goals and four assists in six games to lead the Hurricanes. The 22-year-old had a pair of three-point games against the Islanders in Games 2 and 5, when Carolina eliminated New York.

He scored late in the third period against the Rangers to make things interesting in Game 1 of that series.

On the cusp

Connor or Leon, Leon or Connor? There’s no wrong answer at this point for the Oilers. Draisaitl has put his stamp on the playoffs just as McDavid has.

He has five goals and five assists in five games, with two game-winners.

The Canucks have been carried by their star skaters — well, most of their star skaters — but both Miller and Hughes have been outstanding.

Miller is tied with Boeser with six points in six games, while Hughes has five points and leads the Canucks with 23:06 in average ice time. Of the two, we have to give the edge to Miller. A true MVP is the player who practices in his teammate’s peach paisley shirt to break the tension.

The 20-year-old forward leads the Stars in goals (four), points (seven) and shots (27) after their seven-game series win over Vegas. Johnston got Dallas going by scoring the opening goal in Game 7 against the Golden Knights.

Were it not for Oettinger, Johnston would be their MVP leader.

MacKinnon is tied with Makar and Mikko Rantanen with nine points (two goals and seven assists) in five games.

Anyone who watched the Avs’ win over the Winnipeg Jets saw how much MacKinnon’s ferocious skating can push the pace for Colorado. He’s just getting started.

The Rangers center has four goals and four assists in their five playoff games, including a team-high three goals on their potent power play. He’s second on the team in average ice time (21:57) and has been one of their most impactful players.

Battling his former team in the second round, Trocheck could challenge Zibanejad for top skater on the team.

It’s not outlandish to say that Tkachuk would have won the Conn Smythe last postseason if the Panthers had defeated the Golden Knights — even if he didn’t see the end of the finals because of a broken sternum. His reputation as a dominant playoff performer cemented, Tkachuk is tied with Verhaeghe for the team lead with nine points through five games.

With a rematch against the Bruins in Round 2, the stage is set for more “bus in 10” heroics from the Florida star.

Still work to do

The Hurricanes center has five points in six games and leads all Carolina forwards in average ice time (21:47). Since 2020, Aho has 51 points in 54 games in the postseason.

No other Hurricanes forward has more than 27 points in that span.

We’ve seen flashes of “Playoff Bob” — please recall “The Bobbery” against the Tampa Bay Lightning — so far for the Panthers, but he has a .896 save percentage with a 2.78 goals-against average.

However, the Vezina Trophy finalist has plenty of runway to build his MVP case.

It says a lot about McDavid and Draisaitl that a player with seven goals in the playoffs is third in his team’s pecking order for MVP honors.

But Hyman does have a lane here if he ends up with significantly more goals than either of them — even if Connor and Leon are frequently factoring into those goals.

Like Hyman, Nichushkin has seven goals in the playoffs (with no assists) but finds himself overshadowed by others on the Avalanche — including Rantanen, who leads the team with seven even-strength points.

That includes Georgiev, who has played well (.900 save percentage) and has the indelible narrative of being considered a playoff liability for Colorado but playing like a playoff hero.

Brad Marchand leads the team with three goals and five assists, but he has gone scoreless in three straight games.

Pastrnak has three goals and two assists, but he also has the signature goal of the playoffs on his résumé now: the OT winner in Game 7 to eliminate the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Rangers goalie is third in the playoffs in goals saved above expected (2.7) entering the second round. “Shesty” has a .921 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA in five games.

If he’s the difference in a Rangers series win over the Hurricanes, it could catapult him into the MVP discussion.

Ken Dryden. Patrick Roy. Cam Ward. Arturs Silovs?

The Stanley Cup playoffs has seen its share of rookie goaltending heroes. With a .938 save percentage and a 1.70 GAA in three games after replacing the injured Casey DeSmith (who replaced the injured Thatcher Demko), the Latvian netminder helped send the Canucks to the second round. How long he’ll have the crease is anyone’s guess, but for now, he’s one of the best stories of the playoffs.