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Rachel Doerrie, ESPN
Draft weekend is upon us! Two days from now, more than 200 players will have their rights selected by NHL teams with the hopes of lifting Lord Stanley’s Cup in the future. Teams will draft those players hoping they become key cogs on a contending team. There is plenty of intrigue heading into Friday night’s first round (7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+) outside of the first pick — the Celebrini name bar is all but stitched to the back of a San Jose Sharks jersey.
With Matvei Michkov coming over to North America sooner than expected, surely that bodes well for Ivan Demidov’s hopes of going second overall? And in what order do the defensemen get picked? Who are the biggest risers and fallers? How many trades will be made by Friday evening? Which team will go off the board?
There are so many questions heading into the draft, and only one thing is certain: There will be surprises.
The mock draft vastly differs from the Big Board. The latter is a pure ranking of players based on model outputs, viewings, industry intel and other factors. This close to the draft, the mock is what industry knowledge tells us might happen on Friday night in Las Vegas. Teams have varying lists every draft, but this year more than I can remember, the variance is staggering. A few teams have players in their top five that other teams have in the late teens. Truly, this comes down to how each team feels about each player.
More: Prospect rankings
Draft week buzz
Tij Iginla’s journey
Draft order
Macklin Celebrini, F, Boston University (NCAA)
If the stitching of the name bar on the back of the San Jose Sharks sweater isn’t done already, I’d be shocked.
Celebrini is franchise cornerstone. It is only a matter of time before the San Jose Jr. Shark formally becomes a San Jose Shark.
0:45
Macklin Celebrini’s NHL draft profile
Check out some of the highlights that have solidified Macklin Celebrini’s place as the projected top pick.
Artyom Levshunov, D, Michigan State University (NCAA)
This is where the intrigue begins.
The intel has me leaning toward Levshunov, but Ivan Demidov is the wild card. It doesn’t seem like Chicago’s brass know whom they are taking with certainty, either. The draft could fall much differently if the Blackhawks were to select the Russian forward instead of Levshunov — which will be noted in the picks ahead that are affected.
If Chicago does take Levshunov, the Blackhawks are getting a high-floor, high-ceiling defenseman who possesses all the tools required to be a transition ace and offensive driver. He kills opposing plays, is active in the play on both sides of the puck and chips in offensively. He skyrockets to the top of the Blackhawks’ prospect pool and almost surely has an inside track to a top-pairing role in the future.
Anton Silayev, D, Torpedo (KHL)
If Chicago takes Demidov, Anaheim’s decision is easier; it’ll take Levshunov. Regardless, I think the Ducks go with a defenseman, be it Levshunov or Silayev.
In Silayev, the Ducks get a hulking defenseman, human eraser and excellent skater. He’s raw and will require lots of patient development, something the Ducks have done a fantastic job with over the years. His floor is reasonably high, with many believing he will carve out a career as a top-four defenseman and potentially be the ideal partner for an offensive dynamo.
All this changes if Trevor Zegras is dealt at the draft. The Ducks can use him to get immediate help on the back end, while creating a hole for a skilled winger. Silayev is the best bet should they stand pat with Zegras, given Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek’s modus operandi and the club’s track record of developing top defensemen.
Cayden Lindstrom, F, Medicine Hat (WHL)
The combination of Adam Fantilli and Cayden Lindstrom down the middle for the next decade must be an enticing one for Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell.
I think Demidov is also a consideration here given his skill set and Columbus’ need for elite talent up front. Lindstrom’s back injury scares some teams, but with a doctor’s clearance, the rumored interest from Columbus makes a lot of sense. The Blue Jackets are clearly interested in bigger players, and both Lindstrom and Silayev (if he’s available) fit that bill perfectly.
Ivan Demidov, F, SKA St. Petersburg (MHL)
The Habs passed on Matvei Michkov last year. Surely, they can’t pass on a second supremely skilled winger, right? The thought of Montreal having both Michkov and Demidov would’ve put teams in the Atlantic Division on notice. The Canadiens missed out on one, and given their need for elite talent up front, it is hard to imagine a rationale for passing on another now.
If Montreal wants a different high-end forward, Tij Iginla and Beckett Sennecke are also options, but neither has a ceiling anywhere close to that of Demidov.
However, if Lindstrom somehow gets by Columbus, expect him to be selected by Montreal.
Zeev Buium, D, Denver (NCAA)
The team may have a new name and be in a different city, but the staff remains the same. Utah loves big guys — including Dmitry Simashev (6-4), Daniil But (6-5) and Maveric Lamoureux (6-7) — making one of Buium or Sam Dickinson the most likely pick in this spot.
Utah has big defensemen, but its prospect pool lacks a power-play quarterback. Buium is an elite puck mover who tilts the ice in his team’s favor. Zayne Parekh is the best offensive defenseman in the draft, but Utah seems higher on Buium’s all-around game.
Sam Dickinson, D, London (OHL)
One of the biggest moves of the week happened when Ottawa acquired Linus Ullmark from the Boston Bruins. Given the Senators’ management group’s desire to build the blue line, the big left-handed defenseman makes perfect sense, especially if Jakob Chychrun is on the move this offseason.
Dickinson is high on many lists, and the industry belief is if the Sens take a defenseman at No. 7, it will be Dickinson or Parekh. I lean Dickinson based on the prototype of player that Ottawa GM Steve Staios’ management group likes. If the Senators opt for a forward, it is believed they are high on Beckett Sennecke.
Zayne Parekh, D, Saginaw (OHL)
It is no secret that Seattle is leaning defenseman with the eighth pick. While it doesn’t rule out the surprise selection of a forward, Seattle’s pressing need for prospects on the blue line matches perfectly with Zayne Parekh’s availability here.
His ceiling is as an elite, point-producing, offensive dynamo who runs a power play with precision. Seattle needs an injection of talent on the blue line, and Parekh is the best player available and happens to fit its exact need.
Parekh could fall because some teams question his ability to defend, but the offensive tools are too hard to ignore for a club that is starved for elite talent on defense. If Buium is still available, he’s someone the Kraken are believed to be interested in as well.
Tij Iginla, F, Kelowna (WHL)
Outside of Chicago at No. 2, this is the most interesting selection of the first round. Should Iginla be available, and I’m not convinced he will be, the Flames will have to choose between family ties and organizational needs. They need a defenseman, but passing on Iginla — the son of franchise icon Jarome Iginla — without one of the top defenders available would raise eyebrows.
Iginla’s play style and high-end talent are exactly what the Flames need up front. Add in the bonus of not having to worry about a supreme young talent leaving town given the family ties, and the Flames would have every reason to be excited for a second Iginla to join the organization. If one of the top defensemen is still available, it is likely to be Zayne Parekh, whom the Flames would be thrilled to get.
Beckett Sennecke, F, Oshawa (OHL)
There are a few permutations at play here given the 50-50 chance New Jersey trades this pick and that Sennecke isn’t available at No. 10.
If this were the stock market, Sennecke would be in the conversation with GameStop for which stock gets to the moon first. Sennecke has shot up many draft boards, with some chatter about his being a top-five selection heading into Friday night.
If the Devils keep the pick and Sennecke is there, I expect they will take him to bolster boost their prospect pool with a high-end forward. If he is there and New Jersey trades the pick, there’s a good chance the team that acquires the pick wants one of Sennecke or Iginla, if the latter is available.
1:26
Meet the top prospects of the 2024 NHL draft
Meet the top prospects ahead of the 2024 NHL draft, including Macklin Celebrini, Artyom Levshunov, Cayden Lindstrom and Zeev Buium.
Berkly Catton, F, Spokane (WHL)
The Sabres, like the Devils, should be trading this pick. They are ready to take a step forward, and acquiring a player who helps them now is a better use of the asset than a player who won’t hit the NHL for another year or so.
But assuming they keep the pick, Catton fits their draft pattern perfectly. Last year, Zach Benson fell into their lap, and the same happens this year with Catton. He’s an offensive dynamo who is just as dangerous with his playmaking as he is with his shot. Combine that with a well-rounded game on both sides of the puck, and the only reason Catton isn’t long gone by now is his small stature.
Konsta Helenius, F, Jukurit (Liiga)
Whichever one of Catton or Helenius gets to Philadelphia, the Flyers are getting a center who will play in the top half of their lineup. Michkov’s arrival only exacerbates the hole left by Cutter Gauthier in the prospect pool; the Flyers need a center.
In Helenius, the Flyers are getting a two-way play driver who is versatile, well-rounded and thinks the game at a very high level. He’s the yin to Michkov’s yang, and the two could be key cornerstones in Philadelphia for years to come. If Berkly Catton is available, and I do not expect him to be, he would be a fantastic fit next to Michkov on the Flyers’ top line in the near future.
Cole Eiserman, F, USNTDP
Every team needs an elite scorer. The rest of Eiserman’s game is up for discussion, but his elite offensive instincts and innate ability to put the puck in the net are not. He is an elite goal scorer in every sense.
Minnesota has a plethora of prospects but lacks a potential 40-goal scorer — admittedly, most prospect pools do. There is no guarantee that Eiserman hits his ceiling because he’s not a dual-threat type of player, nor does he have the requisite speed to blow by defenders. His defensive play needs a lot of work, but he does the one thing every team needs: He scores … a lot.
Carter Yakemchuk, D, Calgary (WHL)
“If Cole Eiserman is available, he’s not getting by San Jose.” That sentence, or some form of it, has been uttered to me no less than 10 times since the draft combine. In this instance, he’s not available. Good thing, too, because San Jose has a massive discrepancy in prospect quality at forward and defense.
Instead, the Sharks add Yakemchuk, a big, right-handed defenseman with an excellent shot and quality puck-handling skill. San Jose lacks a blue-chip prospect on the blue line, and while Yakemchuk is unlikely to be a top-pair guy, he’s consistently active in the play. Yakemchuk would be a great fit for the Sharks, who desperately need a driver on the blue line who can run a power play and make an impact. He’s raw, but Yakemchuk has the tools to be exactly that.
Michael Hage, F, Chicago (USHL)
Sticking with the archetype here, there are two players who fit the pattern: Michael Hage and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard. I have the Wings going with Hage here simply because he has the higher ceiling.
The Red Wings need skilled forwards to complement their prospect pool, and I don’t expect any of Sennecke, Iginla or Catton to be available. If they are, Yzerman will likely be in a full sprint to the stage.
In Hage, the Red Wings get a dual-threat, right-handed center with good size and an excellent transition game. Hage transports the puck through the neutral zone, moves it to dangerous scoring areas and consistently adds value with his handling. Detroit needs more forwards with high offensive ceilings, which is why I’d lean Hage over the more confident bet in Brandsegg-Nygard.
Stian Solberg, D, Valerenga (Norway)
Fortune favors the bold, and the Blues get the late riser of the draft in Stian Solberg. The Norwegian defenseman has skyrocketed up draft boards with his play at the world championships, where his physical play was the talk of the scouting area. That continued during the combine, where he tested very well, and many teams were impressed by his interview.
He’s billed as the hardest hitter of the class, and scouts see him as a pure, shutdown defenseman. He lacks offense, which is why his projection is much lower, but there is little doubt teams covet the raw defender who brings a throwback, physical game.
Adam Jiricek, D, HC Plzen (Czech)
Getting Adam Jiricek here is a gift for Washington. The Caps have a glaring need for defensive prospects, and Jiricek has a chance to be an impactful defenseman. The NHL doesn’t have a lot of defensemen who skate well, bring physical edge and kill plays in transition. They are usually locked up to long-term contracts.
Injuries are a legitimate concern with Jiricek, and his lack of development is easily explained by the lost time. The Capitals have been bold with their early selections and Jiricek has a chance to be a top-five player in the class if he reaches the ceiling many saw last season. Given the glaring need for a defensive prospect in the pipeline, Jiricek makes a lot of sense.
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, F, Mora (Hockey AllSvenskan)
Assuming the Blackhawks take Levshunov at No. 2, I expect they will take a forward here. If they go with Demidov at No. 2 and one of Solberg or Jiricek is available, then that is a natural fit. The Blackhawks love skilled players but are likely to stay away from Trevor Connelly.
Brandsegg-Nygard as sure a bet as you’ll find at this point, with the consensus seeing his floor as a third-line center. He brings a good blend of size, skill and two-way effectiveness as the engine of his line. The Blackhawks have quite a few high-end forwards, but they lack some of the harder skills that Brandsegg-Nygard possesses. He’ll fit nicely into the Blackhawks’ lineup as a middle-six player in the next few years.
Liam Greentree, F, Windsor (OHL)
When considering the Golden Knights’ selections, they operate in a more pragmatic fashion. Most teams draft players who fit with what their identity is. The Golden Knights rarely keep their top prospects; instead, they are drafting assets. They draft players who will hold trade value throughout the league and use them as currency to acquire players like Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl down the road. The main prospects in those deals held trade value.
There are whispers that Vegas likes Trevor Connelly and would consider selecting him. If that is true, Vegas is adding a player with top-10 talent but one who might be a nonstarter for other organizations in a trade.
Jett Luchanko, F, Guelph (OHL)
Luchanko is a popular player among scouts. The Islanders are an identity team, and Luchanko’s ability to dictate the pace of the game with his motor fits that identity well. His production exploded this season with an elevated role in Guelph, and he was excellent in a depth role at the world under-18 championships.
A versatile player, Luchanko has Swiss army knife potential in him at the NHL level. A two-way, speedy center who brings offensive punch, Luchanko is shifty and still developing his playmaking ability. The Islanders are getting a player with a unique package and lots of runway to develop into a second-line player, as he’s one of the younger players in the class.
Ryder Ritchie, F, Prince Albert (WHL)
The smooth and evasive Ritchie is hard to miss. He’s a transition menace, too slippery to defend and has the flash to get fans out of their seats. The Kings need some high-end skill in the forward prospect group, and Ritchie has that in spades.
The Kings have shown a willingness to be patient with their prospects and Ritchie needs time to develop a more well-rounded offensive game that sees him dictate play on and off the puck. If Ritchie can become more manipulative with the puck — and more dangerous off the puck with his movement — he has the foundational tools to become a second-line winger.
Trevor Connelly, F, Tri City (USHL)
Connelly feels like a player whom a team with two first-round picks will look at. That, or teams who favor elite skill and overlook other issues. In today’s NHL, teams can’t afford to miss on their first-rounders, but given the Predators’ two picks and stated desire to add high-end skill to the talent pool, Connelly makes sense here. If Nashville believes its organization can mold Connelly and/or that his transgressions are less serious than the public believes, getting a near slam-dunk, top-six player at No. 22 could be a steal.
Connelly’s eventual draft slot will be interesting; he’s got all the skill to be a top player in the draft, but he finds himself on quite a few “do not draft” lists for good reason.
EJ Emery, D, USNTDP
It is no secret the Leafs have more in the forward and goaltending prospect cabinets than they do in defense. Leafs GM Brad Treliving and his staff prefer to build their teams from the blue line out. Given the pieces up front and in the pipeline, taking a big, right-handed, smooth-skating, physical defenseman makes significant sense.
He defends the rush with excellent mobility and gap control. His potential as a top-four defenseman with physical prowess, capable of shutting down the opponent’s best player, is enticing to the Leafs. He needs to add some puck-moving capability to round out his game and make the top-four projection more confident. Should Emery be gone, I think Toronto looks at Charlie Elick and Dominik Badinka as options on defense.
Igor Chernyshov, F, Dynamo Moskva (MHL)
Given where most rankings have him slotted, Chernyshov is the best player available here. He’s considered to be one of the top power forward options in the draft class. Chernyshov is right-handed but plays left wing, giving him some versatility.
The Avalanche have built themselves into a team that scores many ways, which fits well with Chernyshov’s profile. He creates plays off the rush using his well-rounded offensive toolbox. He attacks the middle of the ice, drives the puck to dangerous areas and creates scoring opportunities. If he doesn’t hit his upside of a second-line player, there is a spot for him in the bottom six as a checker given the hard skill he possesses.
Cole Beaudoin, F, Barrie (OHL)
The Bruins acquired this pick in the trade for Linus Ullmark (originally their own), and they need a good player here. Beaudoin is someone the Bruins have been watching closely, and his performance at the U18 championships only increased the Bruins’ interest.
Beaudoin fits the Bruins’ identity of a physically mature center with good hockey sense, ability to win puck battles and most importantly, “has the dog in him.” The Bruins need to bolster their prospect pool, and Beaudoin gives them a reliable option in the middle six going forward. If Beaudoin is gone, and he might be, I could see the Bruins liking Sacha Boisvert and Emil Hemming in this spot.
Sacha Boisvert, F, Muskegon (USHL)
Montreal might trade this pick; there is certainly chatter around it. This could be a scenario where a team wants a player and executes a trade to get him.
Should Montreal keep the pick, Boisvert fits well with what it has going. With a plethora of high-end prospects on the blue line, the Canadiens could use some depth at center in their pool. Boisvert is a sharpshooter with a unique blend of two-way awareness, physicality and well-rounded offensive traits. He can score, execute a wide array of passes and has the puck-retrieval skills to be a power forward in the NHL.
Nikita Artamonov, F, Novgorod (KHL)
Artamonov fits the profile of a Hurricanes prospect, and it is rare that a player produces offense in the KHL during his draft year. A highly intelligent player with the motor to match, Artamonov gets the puck to the middle of the ice, consistently creating advantages with his playmaking ability. He’s disruptive on the forecheck, reads coverage well and tracks back in transition.
The Canes will surely like the idea of a two-way player developing into an offensive contributor in the NHL, which is quite possible with Artamonov’s toolbox. Also note that if Connelly is available, this is likely where the slide stops.
Charlie Elick, D, Brandon (WHL)
After taking Iginla with the No. 9 pick, Calgary gets its physically imposing defenseman here in Elick. If Calgary goes defense with the lottery pick, I think we might see a swing for the fences at forward (Dean Letourneau or Terik Parascak).
With Elick, the Flames get a physically imposing blueliner who loves to throw his weight around. He kills plays with great mobility and is considered one of the top shutdown defenders in the draft. Given Calgary’s need for help on the back end, Elick fits well as a future top-four matchup defenseman.
Terik Parascak, F, Prince George (WHL)
The team that routinely hits on its picks between 20 and 64 gets a crack at a player who produced 105 points in 68 games. He’s further down in the mock than he is in the ranking because the model loves his statistical profile. Scouts have concerns that he doesn’t drive play and requires a playmaking linemate to be effective.
The good news is that Dallas has plenty of drivers in its system, and Parascak is smart enough to become a play driver too if he can add speed and physical tools. The Stars will like his clinical finishing, ability to pick apart defensive coverage and work rate, but he’ll need to round out his offensive game to be a middle-six contributor in the NHL.
Dean Letourneau, F, Saint Andrew’s College (HIGH-ON)
In watching Letourneau this season, I saw Rangers scouts at his games more than any other team. There is a lot to like about the potential unicorn who stands 6-7, is a transition dynamo and most importantly, a right-handed center.
Given his lack of experience in junior, Letourneau is very raw, but the physical package combined with excellent hands is enticing. Playing at Boston College next season (and potentially beyond) gives him time to develop, and he needs to understand how to use his physical gifts to his advantage to become a more effective power forward.
Tage Thompson took a while to develop too, and while the projection isn’t as confident on Letourneau, there is a chance he becomes the unicorn every team wishes it had drafted a few years from now.
Andrew Basha, F, Medicine Hat (WHL)
After getting Silayev with their lottery pick, the Ducks add a dynamic winger with high-end hockey sense. And if the Ducks go with Cayden Lindstrom at No. 3, drafting his linemate, whom they would’ve seen when scouting Lindstrom, is a good bet too.
Basha transports the puck from the outside to the inside, gets the puck to dangerous areas and is an ace in transition. Offering a combination of excellent playmaking, good speed and a polished two-way game, Basha could be a Swiss army knife that fits well as a complementary player with the likes of Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish.
Emil Hemming, F, TPS (Liiga)
The Flyers add to their forward prospect cupboard with a second Finnish forward. Hemming is a well-rounded winger with a good shot and a two-way game who projects well to a middle-six role in the NHL. He showed glimpses of higher-ceiling offense but is most likely to be a reliable two-way presence.
The Flyers have done a good job adding skill to their prospect pool, and Hemming adds a two-way dimension that will be valuable in the NHL. Given the ties to London and how closely the Flyers would’ve watched Oliver Bonk, Sam O’Reilly could be another candidate for Philly with the last pick of the first round.