Real Madrid and Manchester City now know the cost of failing to perform in the reshaped Champions League: a titanic win-or-bust clash between the last two European champions simply to claim a place in the Round of 16. Welcome to the Champions League Playoffs!
After the nail-biting conclusion of the competition’s first League Stage, some of Europe’s biggest clubs have unexpectedly found themselves facing a two-legged knockout fixture to reach the Round of 16.
And while Man City vs. Real is the undoubted tie of the round, fellow heavyweights Bayern Munich, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund and last season’s Europa League winners Atalanta must also negotiate tricky ties to make it into the next round.
With UEFA adopting a new tennis-style draw that operates two separate paths (Silver and Blue) to the final, the bracket after the Playoff draw has opened up a clear route to the Champions League final in Munich at the end of the season.
So what are the Playoffs, and how will they play out?
SILVER PATH
Club Brugge vs. Atalanta
Club Brugge sealed their place in the Playoffs with a game to spare after wins against Aston Villa and Sporting CP while also holding Juventus to a draw, but the Belgian club almost shocked Manchester City on matchday eight by taking the lead at the Etihad and going close to eliminating Pep Guardiola’s team before eventually losing 3-1.
Brugge will be underdogs against Atalanta, however, with Gian Piero Gasperini’s team becoming one of the most consistent teams in Europe. Their Europa League final win against Bayer Leverkusen last season underlined their quality and they are a team with plenty of goals from Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketalaere and Mateo Retegui.
WINNERS: Atalanta
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
It’s the nightmare draw for both clubs: the Champions League winners of 2022 against the 2023 champions. On the last three occasions City and Real have met in the knockout stages, the winners of the tie has gone on to win that season’s competition.
This is Erling Haaland vs. Kylian Mbappé, Pep Guardiola going against Carlo Ancelotti and a tie that could be won by any of Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior or Kevin De Bruyne. It is an epic clash, but Real will go into the tie as favourites. They sit on top of La Liga and Mbappe is now beginning to hit top form, while City continue to underperform in the Premier League and seemingly can’t keep a clean sheet against top opposition.
Expect fireworks!
WINNERS: Real Madrid
Juventus vs. PSV Eindhoven
Peter Bosz’s PSV proved themselves to be a dangerous outsider during the League Stage, winning four games including a matchday eight win against Liverpool that ended the Premier League leaders’ 100% winning start to the Champions League season. The loss of leading scorer Ricardo Pepi to a knee injury that will rule the USMNT forward out of this tie could be decisive, however. PSV simply have to find a way to replace his goal threat.
Juventus have blown hot and cold so far, but their 2-0 win against Man City in December highlighted their threat on a night when Weston McKennie and Timothy Weah came off the bench to seal Juve’s win.
WINNERS: Juventus
Brest vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Brest made a stunning start to their first-ever European campaign by going unbeaten in the Champions League until a 3-0 defeat in Barcelona in November, but the wheels have started to fall off for Eric Roy’s team. While their performances have taken a dive, PSG have found form and their qualification was down to two huge wins against Manchester City and Stuttgart in the final two games.
Over two legs, it’s difficult to see anything but a comfortable win for PSG against their fellow French opponents, especially as Luis Enrique’s team sit unbeaten at the top of Ligue 1 — 19 points clear of eighth-place Brest, who have lost nine league games already this season.
WINNERS: Paris Saint-Germain
BLUE PATH
Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund
Portuguese champions Sporting looked to be cruising towards a top eight finish when a Viktor Gyökeres hat-trick helped seal a 4-1 win against Manchester City on matchday four, but coach Ruben Amorim then left for Manchester United and Sporting slid down the table with three straight defeats until Conrad Harder‘s late equaliser against Bologna on matchday eight saved the team from elimination.
But while Sporting have struggled to overcome Amorim’s departure, Dortmund are also in the midst of a crisis, with Niko Kovac becoming their third coach in less than 12 months after replacing the fired Nuri Sahin this week.
Dortmund reached last season’s final before losing to Real Madrid, but they have been poor domestically this season. They will be favourites, but this tie could depend on the form of Gyokeres and Dortmund’s leading scorer, Serhou Guirassy.
WINNERS: Borussia Dortmund
Celtic vs. Bayern Munich
Bayern will have breathed a huge sigh of relief after being paired with Celtic, knowing they could have faced either the Scottish champions or Manchester City.
By reaching the Playoff round, Celtic have exceeded expectations and last October’s 7-1 defeat against Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park will be a warning of what can go wrong for Brendan Rodgers and his team against Bayern.
Celtic can be a tough prospect at Celtic Park, but Bayern will be too strong; Harry Kane & Co. also have the added incentive of knowing that this season’s final will be staged at the Allianz Arena, which could mean Celtic end up routed by the Bundesliga leaders.
WINNERS: Bayern Munich
2:36
Has the new Champions League format been a success?
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens debate whether the new Champions League format has improved the competition.
Feyenoord vs. AC Milan
Feyenoord have been one of the surprise teams of this season’s competition, showing that they have successfully moved on from coach Arne Slot’s departure for Liverpool last summer. But this tie could all depend on the outcome of Milan’s attempts to sign Feyenoord’s leading goalscorer Santiago Giménez, with talks at an advanced stage over the Mexico international’s potential transfer.
Without Gimenez, Feyenoord might lack the firepower to beat Milan, but Brian Priske’s team will still be tough to beat at the intimidating De Kuip Stadium. Milan are arguably the weakest of Italy‘s four remaining teams in the competition, so Feyenoord could yet pull of a shock.
WINNERS: Feyenoord
AS Monaco vs. Benfica
Monaco and Benfica finished mid-table, one place apart and only separated by goal difference in favour of the Portuguese team, so this tie is as close as you could imagine. Adolf Hutter’s Monaco are young and inconsistent, while Bruno Lage’s Benfica are exciting but prone to defensive mistakes: just watch the highlights of their incredible 5-4 home defeat against Barcelona for evidence of their strengths and weaknesses.
The experience of World Cup winners Nicolás Otamendi and Angel di Maria is likely to give Benfica the edge in this tie, especially with the second-leg taking place at Estadio da Luz in Lisbon.
WINNERS: Benfica