Start with two of the best recent Group of 5 college football programs (Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina), plus a rising Georgia State. From Conference USA, add a borderline top-50 program (Marshall) and a high-potential young program in a fertile recruiting area (Old Dominion). Throw in the second-best program in FCS (James Madison). What do you get? The best division in the G5 ranks: the Sun Belt East.
If the SEC was the biggest winner of this recent round of conference realignment, the Sun Belt came in second. It plucked three programs from C-USA — a decade after C-USA had done something similar to the Sun Belt, no less — and beat C-USA for JMU’s services. It raised its already blossoming football ceiling without overstretching its borders. And it could give us the best division title race in the mid-major ranks this fall. Welcome to the G5 thunderdome.
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 131 FBS teams. The previews will include 2021 breakdowns, 2022 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: MWC West | MWC Mountain | AAC (Nos. 6-11) | AAC (Nos. 1-5) | MAC East | MAC West | Sun Belt West
2021 recap
Appalachian State has finished in the SP+ top 40 for four straight seasons, but for a brief moment last season, we almost forgot about Shawn Clark’s Mountaineers. Their 41-13 loss to Louisiana on Oct. 12 seemed to set the table for Coastal Carolina to roll to a second straight East crown … until App turned around and knocked off the Chanticleers a week later. The Mountaineers destroyed all comers from there, winning their last five conference games by an average of 42-12 before losing a much tighter game at Louisiana, 24-16, in the Sun Belt championship game.
Coastal still enjoyed a lovely 11-win season but technically finished third in the East because of a 42-40 home loss to Georgia State on Nov. 13. GSU won seven of its last eight games to turn a 1-4 start into a program-best 8-5 finish, 6-2 in conference. Troy and Georgia Southern finished in the back of the pack and fired their respective head coaches. (And then Troy moved to the West division.)
2022 projections
* JMU currently has only 11 games scheduled.
** The Dukes are not eligible for a bowl in their first FBS season.
Four teams are projected within 0.7 average conference wins of each other, and two more are only a couple of surprises away from contention. The best division in the G5 indeed might also have the best division race.
Burning questions
Does Appalachian State still have receivers? App State has done a lot of its winning in recent years with defense. The Mountaineers have ranked 49th or better in defensive SP+ for seven straight seasons, but they leaped to 13-1 in 2019 when their offense took a step forward as well. They’ve now been in the offensive SP+ top 50 for three straight seasons.
After years of running the ball well, App’s offense was driven by a dynamic passing game last season. Clemson and Duke transfer Chase Brice threw for 3,337 yards and 27 touchdowns, and the trio of receivers — Corey Sutton, Thomas Hennigan and Malik Williams — combined for 2,546 yards. Brice returns this fall, but all three receivers are gone; in fact, only one returning wideout (Christian Wells) caught more than five passes in 2021.
Wells could be awesome: He was targeted only 21 times last season but caught 12 balls for 243 yards and two scores. But the receiving corps will determine App’s chances in a loaded East. The run game should be solid with backs Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples running behind a line with four seniors. Plus, while the defense gets thinned out a bit — of the 17 players who got 300-plus snaps last year, eight are gone — it has loads of star power. Outside linebackers Nick Hampton and Brendan Harrington took part in 27 tackles for loss (Hampton had 11 sacks), and corner Steven Jones Jr. picked off five passes in 2021. But the Mountaineers’ big-play passing gave them a different level of upside, and receivers Wells, Dashaun Davis and perhaps North Carolina transfer Kaedin Robinson will need to step up for App to rule the East again.
Does Marshall have a quarterback? Brice … Coastal’s Grayson McCall … Georgia State’s Darren Grainger … ODU’s Hayden Wolff … the East returns quite a few exciting quarterbacks in 2022, and it will be hard to win the division if you’re behind the curve at that position.
Unfortunately for Marshall, the Herd’s starting quarterback will likely be starting for Virginia Tech. Grant Wells transferred to Blacksburg this winter, leaving second-year head coach Charles Huff with an exciting roster and no slam-dunk choice to pilot it. Wells threw for 3,522 yards last season, and the receiving corps returns go-to target Corey Gammage, prolific slot Shadeed Ahmed and dual-threat running back Rasheen Ali (1,401 rushing yards plus 46 receptions). But redshirt freshman Cam Fancher and true freshmen Chase Harrison and Peter Zamora took most of the snaps behind center in spring ball while Huff waited for Texas Tech and Utah State transfer Henry Colombi to arrive this summer.
Colombi is solid and will probably win the job, and he’ll have weapons around him if a high-turnover line, with only one starter returning, holds up. Coordinator Lance Guidry’s defense, meanwhile, should still be strong against the pass. Corners Steven Gilmore and Micah Abraham and pass-rushers Owen Porter (end) and Eli Neal (linebacker) all return, though turnover at tackle and safety needs to be addressed.
Still, Marshall suffers from a continuity standpoint in an area where most of its new division rivals do not. The Herd have the highest projected SP+ rating in the division and are projected underdogs in only one game (at Notre Dame on Sept. 10). But they play in seven relative tossups — games projected within 7.5 points — and close games are often decided by quarterbacks and special teams. Marshall has a new QB, and last year’s special-teams unit was dismal. Can the Herd overcome that?
What happens in Grayson McCall’s last ride? The mullet is back, and it still “pisses teal.”
— Gray (@McCall_Grayson) December 21, 2021
It’s nearly impossible to overstate the effect that McCall has had on the Coastal Carolina football program. The Chants had gone 13-23 with an average SP+ rating of 114.7 in their first three FBS seasons: not terrible for a newcomer, but obviously not great. Since McCall checked into the lineup in 2020, they have gone 22-3 and ranked 25th in SP+ twice.
That rise wasn’t all about McCall, obviously — their defense surged in the past two seasons, too, and the caliber of the skill corps athletes surrounding McCall continues to improve — but his precision and versatility have given us an incredible glimpse of what a modern offense heavy in option principles can look like. Head coach Jamey Chadwell has long been associated with creative option attacks, but the outstanding passing was a new variable. McCall’s return to Conway is great news for all fans of sexy offenses.
The Chants do have a lot to replace, however: leading running back Shermari Jones, receiver Jaivon Heiligh, tight end Isaiah Likely and three line starters on offense, plus star defensive tackle C.J. Brewer and, alarmingly, five of last year’s top six linebackers and seven of nine defensive backs. McCall’s return means Coastal’s ceiling remains high, but we’ll quickly find out if Chadwell’s recent building job was repeatable or if it was just a perfect and hard-to-duplicate collection of talent. Running backs Braydon Bennett and Reese White, guard Willie Lampkin, end Josaiah Stewart and corners D’Jordan Strong and Lance Boykin are all proven entities with upside. But loads of new starters will need to come through if Coastal is to contend.
Does Georgia State have another gear? In its first four seasons in FBS, Georgia State rode an out-of-nowhere four-game winning streak to a bowl bid in 2015 but otherwise went a ghastly 6-39. The potential of a mid-major program based in Atlanta was obvious, but the Panthers had no history and no track record.
They have a track record now. In five seasons under Shawn Elliott, GSU has bowled four times, winning three of them. Since stumbling to 2-10 and 125th in FBS in Elliott’s second season, the Panthers have improved for three straight years — to 107th, then 88th, then 71st. The offense has been exciting for a while, and the defense began showing promise in 2021 as well.
It’s difficult to improve your SP+ ranking for four straight seasons. Among current Sun Belt members, the last to pull that off was Marshall from 2011 to 2014, but Georgia State will at least have a chance. The Panthers have to replace offensive coordinator Brad Glenn and a couple of stars in the trenches — left guard Shamarious Gilmore, defensive tackle Dontae Wilson — but they return 16 starters.
Darren Grainger-to-Jamari Thrash is one of the best pass connections in the conference, Jordan Veneziale and Blake Carroll are particularly active inside linebackers, corners Quavian White and Bryquice Brown are rock solid, and GSU’s calling card of late, intensely physical play in the trenches, should continue to be a strength. The Panthers ranked 25th in rushing success rate on offense and 20th on defense, and they return four offensive line starters and a trio of defensive linemen (ends Javon Denis and Tre Moore and nose tackle Thomas Gore) who took part in 29 tackles for loss. Throw in two efficient running backs (Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams), and the pieces needed to bowl again are there. Unearth just a little bit more offensive explosiveness, and we’re talking sleeper East contender.
JMU is the best FCS program to make the leap. What does that mean, exactly? Timing the jump to FBS is harder than it looks. Programs such as UMass and Texas State had already begun to falter at the FCS level when they jumped to FBS and stalled out altogether. Occasionally you’ll see a team such as Marshall or Liberty hit the ground running, but it’s really tricky.
All indications are that Curt Cignetti’s James Madison team is more Marshall or App State than UMass. The Dukes were without question the best FCS program not named North Dakota State in recent times, going 70-11 from 2016 to ’21, beating NDSU for the 2016 national title and falling to the Bison in tight playoff battles in 2017, 2019 and 2021. It’s hard to build quality depth and size in the trenches in FCS, but JMU was just about the only team that could stand up to NDSU in this regard. The Dukes’ defensive line was incredibly disruptive in 2021, and their three returning starters on the offensive line average 6-foot-4, 318 pounds.
Quarterback Cole Johnson is gone after throwing for 3,779 yards and 41 touchdowns last season, and they must replace defensive dynamos in end Bryce Carter, tackle Mike Greene and corner Greg Ross. The depth is still solid, though, and Cignetti brought in a few FBS ringers — Colorado State quarterback Todd Centeio, Boston College receiver Kobay White and active Arkansas State safety Jarius Reimonenq among them. While the Dukes can’t bowl just yet, they should be able to stand mostly on their own.
What happens now that ODU has normalcy again? Old Dominion announced former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne as its head coach on Dec. 9, 2019. On the 635th day of his tenure, he finally coached a game. The Monarchs were one of three programs to cancel their 2020 fall campaign, and they rather predictably started slowly last season. But after a 1-6 start that saw them ranked 119th in SP+ at the start of November, ODU surged late, winning five straight games to pull off an unlikely Myrtle Beach Bowl bid.
The offense averaged 36 points per game during the winning streak, and it returns 10 starters. Quarterback Hayden Wolff has strong efficiency weapons in running back Blake Watson and tight end Zack Kuntz, and wideout Ali Jennings III broke out late in the season. Tackles Nick Saldiveri and Khadere Kounta are among the best in the conference as well. The season-long numbers weren’t great, but the potential is obvious.
ODU was more consistent on defense in 2021, but it has to replace star linebacker Jordan Young and three-fifths of the secondary. A speedy but light line returns mostly intact, and corner Tre Hawkins III is excellent, but depth could be an issue unless some high-potential sophomores such as linebacker Jason Henderson and safety Terry Jones take star turns. (And they might!)
How patient are Georgia Southern fans? Georgia Southern was one of the FCS-to-FBS success stories, winning nine games in each of its first two seasons after the jump. The Eagles briefly stumbled after losing coach Willie Fritz to Tulane, but Chad Lunsford led them to 25 wins from 2018 to 2020. They were maintaining their beloved option principles, and while other Sun Belt programs were surpassing them, they were still solid.
That changed in 2021. The offense ground to a halt, and Lunsford was fired early in a 3-9 campaign. The school elected to bring in former USC coach Clay Helton to lead the program into the future. Helton is decidedly non-option, and new offensive coordinator Bryan Ellis was pass-happy Western Kentucky’s co-coordinator last season.
Buffalo quarterback Kyle Vantrease and Houston receiver Jeremy Singleton are in to speed up the change, Helton signed a four-star freshman running back in Terrance Gibbs, and experience levels are strong on both sides of the ball. But with such a massive identity shift, and in such a strong division, it’s probably best to avoid setting any major expectations for the Eagles in 2022. They are projected favorites in only three games, one in conference. College football is a lot more fun when Georgia Southern is puffing its chest out and slapping teams around in Statesboro, but it might be a little while before that happens again in volume.
My 10 favorite players
QB Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina. He has completed 71% of his passes in his already-storied career, with a patently absurd 54-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio. He was eighth in Total QBR last year. He rules.
RB Rasheen Ali, Marshall. One of the least heralded recruits on Marshall’s roster, Ali dominated immediately, averaging 3.3 yards per carry after contact and rushing for 90-plus yards eight times.
WR Ali Jennings III, Old Dominion. Jennings’ first six games in 2021: 15 catches for 208 yards. His next seven games: 46 catches for 855 yards. He gives the Monarchs’ offense a completely different dimension.
C Malik Sumter, Georgia State. Maybe the most physical line in the conference is anchored by the 285-pound Sumter, who blew just 0.8% of his blocks all season, per Sports Info Solutions.
RT Cooper Hodges, Appalachian State. Chase Brice dropped back to pass 437 times last year; Hodges allowed a sack in just one of those attempts. If Brice has the receivers, a veteran line will give him time to find them.
DE Josaiah Stewart, Coastal Carolina. One of the gems of Coastal’s 2021 recruiting class, Stewart was an immediate star, exploding for 12.5 sacks and seven run stuffs among 15.5 TFLs.
DE Isaac Ukwu, James Madison. The Dukes have a couple of stars to replace up front, but they’ve still got the 255-pound Ukwu on the edge. He was second on the team with 16.5 TFLs and first with nine sacks.
LB Abraham Beauplan, Marshall. Really, take your pick among Marshall’s linebackers. The trio of Beauplan, Eli Neal and Charlie Gray combined for 24.5 TFLs, 10 sacks and 34 run stuffs last year; Beauplan had 18 of those stuffs.
LB Nick Hampton, Appalachian State. One of the best blitzers in college football, the 225-pounder recorded 11 sacks and forced 16 incompletions and interceptions last season. He was effective dropping into coverage too.
CB Derrick Canteen, Georgia Southern. One of the Sun Belt’s best defenders as a freshman in 2020 — he picked off six passes and broke up 11 more — Canteen missed most of 2021 with a pectoral injury. Welcome back.
Anniversaries
In 1982, 40 years ago, Erk Russell completed his first season as Georgia Southern’s head coach. The former Georgia defensive coordinator built an FCS powerhouse from scratch in Statesboro, going 21-11-1 over his first three seasons, then shifting into high gear. The Eagles reached four national title games in five years, winning three. They would win three more titles after his retirement in 1989.
In 1997, 25 years ago, Marshall’s Randy Moss Randy Moss’d. After going for 1,709 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns against overmatched FCS defenders in 1996, Moss somehow raised his game. In the Thundering Herd’s first FBS season, he produced 1,820 receiving yards and 26 scores, throwing in a 49-yard kick return and 58-yard punt return for good measure. Marshall went 10-3, and Moss won the Biletnikoff Award and finished fourth in the Heisman voting.
In 2007, 15 years ago, Appalachian State beat Michigan. You probably remember this one.
It kick-started both a third straight FCS national title run for the Mountaineers and the wildest college football season of all time.
Also in 2007: ODU hired a football coach. Bobby Wilder turned out to be a pretty inspired choice. He took over the startup program, went 46-14 at the FCS level and reached the FCS quarterfinals in 2012 before leading the Monarchs to FBS. They went 10-3 in 2016, though their momentum fizzled out from there.
In 2017, five years ago, JMU’s winning streak reached 26 games. The Dukes have had plenty of historic success, but they peaked in 2016 and ’17. Under Mike Houston, now East Carolina’s head coach, JMU won its last 12 games of 2016, rolling through the CAA, stomping New Hampshire and Sam Houston by a combined 120-29 in the FCS playoffs, then upsetting North Dakota State in the semis and outlasting Youngstown State in the finals. The next year, they stomped East Carolina, among others, on the way to a 14-0 start but missed out on a second straight national title by four points, falling 17-13 to North Dakota State.
Also in 2017: Jamey Chadwell took over at Coastal for the first time. The former North Greenville, Delta State and Charleston Southern head coach came to Coastal to serve as Joe Moglia’s offensive coordinator, but Moglia took a leave of absence for the 2017 season, and Chadwell’s Chants went just 3-9. Moglia returned for the 2018 season, then retired for good — he’s now the “executive director for football” within the Coastal athletic department — and Chadwell resumed his post. He’s 23-3 in the past two seasons.
Also in 2017: Shawn Elliott took over at Georgia State. Whatever the Panthers program becomes moving forward, it will come from the blueprint Elliott put together.