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Even though the 2022 NFL season is roughly four months from kicking off, it’s never too early to speculate about win totals — or to gamble on them.
As far as the latter is concerned, Caesars Sportsbook released its initial projected win totals for each team for the coming season. There’s a lot that will still happen between now and then, but NFL over/unders are open for wagering, so we asked our 32 NFL Nation writers to handicap the win totals of the teams they cover based on the initial Caesars numbers listed below.
There is plenty of optimism from our reporters about the fortunes of the teams they cover, a little pessimism and the occasional pragmatic push here and there. Whether it’s optimism about running it back with a winning team, giddiness about offseason additions or adopting a wait-and-see approach for rebuilding situations, NFL Nation is here to provide eager bettors with early advice.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Over/under: 11.5
Prediction: Buffalo won 11 games last year but should have won even more. The 2022 Bills should win more than 11. This roster is better than in 2021, thanks to the additions made throughout the offseason, most notably Von Miller. The AFC East improved around the Bills and the schedule has tough games in every portion, but this roster should win at least 12 games. — Alaina Getzenberg
Over/under: 8.5
Prediction: On paper, there are seven games that Miami should win if it considers itself a playoff contender. If it takes care of business in those games and pulls out a couple of swing games, Miami should clear 8.5. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Over/under: 8.5
Prediction: Bill Belichick’s team needs a few things to happen to hit the over, starting with quarterback Mac Jones making the often-discussed second-year jump. There are big questions at linebacker and cornerback to answer as well, and the offensive coaching staff, where Matt Patricia and Joe Judge — whose primary backgrounds are on defense and special teams, respectively — are taking on lead roles. — Mike Reiss
Over/under: 5.5
Prediction: The Jets’ over/under is greater than their average win total over the past six seasons (4.5). Shame on them if they can’t win at least six games. After years of rebuilding — it feels like decades, right? — the Jets have improved their personnel on both sides of the ball to the point where they absolutely should be playing meaningful games in December. The difference between 6-11 and, say, 9-8, will be Zach Wilson and his development. — Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: Baltimore will hit the over as long as Lamar Jackson remains healthy, which was a major issue last year. Since Jackson took over as the starter midway through the 2018 season, his winning percentage (.755, 37-12 record) ranks only behind that of Patrick Mahomes. Without Jackson, Baltimore is 2-5 (.286) over the past three seasons. — Jamison Hensley
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: Last season, the Bengals exceeded expectations with a 10-win season. Cincinnati will need another strong defensive year and for its offense to click as it did in wins over Kansas City and Baltimore if it wants to have a shot of hitting double digits. — Ben Baby
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: Whether Cleveland can top the current over/under will hinge heavily on whether new quarterback Deshaun Watson is suspended under the league’s code of conduct policy. If Watson isn’t suspended, the Browns have the talent to easily reach 10 victories against this schedule. — Jake Trotter
Over/under: 7.5
Prediction: For the Steelers to hit the over, they’ll need the quarterback situation to be settled — and quickly. Whether that’s Kenny Pickett starting from the beginning and deftly adjusting to the NFL learning curve or Mitch Trubisky commanding Matt Canada’s offense, whoever takes over the starting job will have to hit the ground running, literally. — Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
Over/under: 4.5
Prediction: Taking the over requires some faith in an improved offense behind quarterback Davis Mills, but even with a schedule that includes the tough AFC West, I’ll take the over in Houston. — Sarah Barshop
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: The Colts can’t rely as much on running back Jonathan Taylor like they did last season if they expect to meet or surpass that total. The young receivers, led by Michael Pittman Jr., will have to step up and help Taylor and new starting quarterback Matt Ryan if the Colts expect to go toe-to-toe with their schedule. — Mike Wells
Over/under: 6.5
Prediction: Just having Doug Pederson leading the ship instead of Urban Meyer will make a huge difference, but to hit the over, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has to make major strides in his second season. That doesn’t seem unreasonable, considering he’s not dealing with the dysfunction that infested the franchise under Meyer, the fact that Pederson has given him three assistants who were former college or pro quarterbacks, and the team added receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram in free agency. — Michael DiRocco
Over/under: 9.5
Prediction: Tennessee has won nine or more games in each of its three seasons with Mike Vrabel as coach. This year’s schedule features clashes with the AFC West and a visit to Buffalo to face the Bills. Although it’s no walk in the park, the Titans should be able to salvage 10 wins. — Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Over/under number: 10
Prediction: To hit that over/under of 10, the Broncos will likely have to break the losing streak to the Chiefs, win most, or all, of their home games and be in a position to break a six-year playoff drought. — Jeff Legwold
Over/under: 10.5
Prediction: The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in each of the past four seasons. But they haven’t played a schedule quite as difficult as the one they will face this season, after each of their AFC West rivals loaded up through free agency and trades. The Chiefs can hit the over if they survive an opening six-game stretch that includes two division games plus matchups with the Bills and Bucs. — Adam Teicher
Over/under: 8.5
Prediction: That over/under of 8.5 seems insulting, given the Raiders are coming off a 10-win playoff season, improved across the roster and joined the 21st century with an elite playcaller in new coach Josh McDaniels. That’s on paper, though, and the offensive line still has to protect quarterback Derek Carr, who will need time to deliver the ball downfield to college bestie Davante Adams. — Paul Gutierrez
Over/under: 10
Prediction: On paper, 10 wins should be doable, but fall into an 0-2 hole against a pair of AFC West foes and that climb back will be steep indeed. Win both games, and it should be smooth sailing from there on in. — Paul Gutierrez
NFC EAST
Over/under: 10.5
Prediction: A year ago, the Cowboys won 12 games, but they don’t have Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, Connor Williams or La’el Collins around this year. They haven’t made the big free-agent splashes. Their draft didn’t generate a ton of buzz, either. So why 10.5? They are tied with Washington for the easiest strength of schedule based off last year’s win percentages. — Todd Archer
Over/under: 7
Prediction: Seven wins seems ambitious. This would be a three-win improvement from last season’s 4-13 finish. Is the chance that Jones stays healthy (he hasn’t yet in three seasons) and a new coaching staff really enough to bring the four wins it would take to hit the over? — Jordan Raanan
Over/under: 9
Prediction: Considering the strength of schedule based off last year’s win percentages and the fact they won nine games last season, the over/under of 9 might be a little low. The trade for A.J. Brown should help quarterback Jalen Hurts in his second full season as the starting quarterback. — Todd Archer
Over/under: 7.5
Prediction: That over/under would mean just a half-win better than 2021 when injuries and COVID-19 derailed Washington’s season. The Commanders have upgraded at quarterback and should have a much better offense overall. Defensively, they don’t face near the caliber of quarterbacks they did last season. — John Keim
NFC NORTH
Over/under: 6.5
Prediction: The NFC North is more open than years past, but Chicago isn’t a team currently built to contend for the playoffs, let alone a division title. The Bears will play 13 straight games before they get a week off late in the season. If they want to hit the over, they might have to rely on their defense to carry the load with some early wins as Justin Fields builds chemistry with his new teammates during the early portion of the schedule. — Courtney Cronin
Over/under: 6
Prediction: To hit the over, quarterback Jared Goff has to show that he can be productive with anyone other than Sean McVay as his head coach. Goff is 3-17-1 (.167) with a QBR of 33 in his career without McVay. All of that certainly isn’t his fault. Lions general manager Brad Holmes is putting offensive weapons around him in 2022, and Goff has a familiarity with receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, running back D’Andre Swift and tight end T.J. Hockenson. Plus, the Lions added receivers Chark and Jameson Williams via free agency and the draft, respectively. The rebuilt defense also has to step it up as well. — Eric Woodyard
Over/under: 11
Prediction: The oddmakers must not think coach Matt LaFleur can put together a fourth straight 13-win season. LaFleur has done that in each of his first three seasons as a head coach. If they can make up for the loss of All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, then they could go over again. And remember, they were 7-0 without Adams the past three seasons. — Rob Demovsky
Over/under: 9
Prediction: Take the over. The Vikings’ roster has a higher floor than most teams that hire a new coach. It’s talented and has averaged nine wins per year over the past nine seasons. With a fresh coat of paint on the offense and defense, and a weakened NFC overall, this team should win at least 10 games. — Kevin Seifert
NFC SOUTH
Over/under: 5.5
Prediction: Oddsmakers aren’t high on the Falcons – the over/under on win total is 5.5 – and that’s with good reason, based on the roster as currently constructed. Atlanta could surprise a bit, particularly in the front seven on defense, but inevitably falls just under the over/under mark at five wins this season. — Michael Rothstein
Over/under: 6
Prediction: The odds-makers have the Panthers’ win total at 6. That’s one more win than the team has had in each of the past three seasons. Carolina hasn’t had a winning season since going 11-5 in 2017, which coincides with the last time the team had consistent quarterback play. To surpass six wins, consistent play from Sam Darnold, or whoever is at quarterback, is a must. — David Newton
Over/under: 7.5
Prediction: The oddsmakers are skeptical the Saints can overcome the loss of coach Sean Payton, setting their win total at 7.5. That’s too low, considering they went 9-8 last year despite setting an NFL record with 58 starters used. Getting quarterback Jameis Winston and star wideout Michael Thomas back healthy and adding first-round pick Chris Olave will revive the offense. — Mike Triplett
Over/under: 11.5
Prediction: They managed to go 13-4 last season despite their receiving corps being decimated by injuries in the last quarter of the season. But that was against a 29th-ranked schedule, according to FPI, with opponents finishing a combined 126-145 the year before. This season, the Bucs’ opponents finished a combined 154-134-1 in 2021. — Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Over/under number: 9
Prediction: They’ll need to have a strong start without Hopkins to reach that number. Their season is full of tough stretches and with a history of late-season collapses, reaching nine wins may be a stretch. — Josh Weinfuss
Over/under number: 10.5
Prediction: I’ll take the over. Yes, the Rams have the toughest strength of schedule in 2022, but they had the second-toughest last season and still won 12 games. — Sarah Barshop
Over/under number: 10
Prediction: That’s the number of games the Niners won last season before making a deep postseason run and feels about right for a roster that remains mostly intact. But there’s a lot more possible variance with this group because of the expected ascendance of Trey Lance to the starting quarterback job. — Nick Wagoner
Over/under number: 6
Prediction: I’m taking the over, but barely. That might seem overly optimistic for a team with a major question mark at quarterback, but there’s enough talent elsewhere on their roster — and enough weak-looking opponents with iffy QB situations of their own — to scratch out seven wins. That will require one notable upset. — Brady Henderson