Why Matvei Michkov is the NHL draft’s ultimate X factor

NHL

NASHVILLE, Tennessee — Matvei Michkov is the agent of chaos for the 2023 NHL draft. Or the X factor. Or the player with the highest ceiling outside of Connor Bedard, the generational talent expected to be the first overall pick.

“He’s the mystery man,” said Matthew Wood, a right wing from UConn who is expected to go in Wednesday night’s first round.

“Nobody has seen him. He’s a ghost,” Arizona Coyotes general manager Bill Armstrong said. “We have not met with him at this point. But you never know. That’s top-secret information. Not quite sure I can answer that completely.”

If Bedard is the draft’s best player, Michkov is undoubtedly its most fascinating one. The 18-year-old Russian phenom is the hottest topic on the ground in Nashville, as teams and pundits and his fellow prospects openly wonder where he’ll be drafted.

“I guess it’s kind of a little bit of a guessing game,” said Ryan Leonard, a right wing from the U.S. national team development program.

Michkov won’t go at No. 1, as the Chicago Blackhawks will certainly take Bedard first, having already sold thousands of tickets next season after winning the draft lottery. It could be at No. 2 overall, as there’s been scuttlebutt that the Anaheim Ducks could forgo drafting Michigan star center Adam Fantilli in favor of Michkov. It could be anywhere in the first 10 picks. It’s a mystery.

“I mean, I guess I know just as much as you guys do,” Fantilli said. “I’ve never gotten to meet him. At the end of the day, it comes down to what a team needs and what a team wants. He’s a great hockey player.”

Michkov, a right wing, is an offensive dynamo who is equally adept at scoring goals and creating them. He had 16 points in seven games, including 12 goals, at the 2021 IIHF U18 world junior championships. He has 22 goals in 22 games in the Kontinental Hockey League’s developmental league in 2021-22. Last season in the KHL, he had 20 points in 27 games, starting the season as a 17-year-old.

Michkov is ranked second by NHL Central Scouting behind center Leo Carlsson from Orebro HK in Sweden among European skaters.

“He’s a dynamic player, with the way he can put the puck in the net and make plays,” Bedard said this week. “I know what he did in the KHL last year was special. It was record-breaking for his age. He’s got so many things in his game that makes him great.”

But Michkov is also a prospect many scouts haven’t gotten a chance to survey in person, thanks to the hockey world’s fractured relationship with Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The IIHF’s ban on Russian teams in international tournaments and travel restrictions have made that more challenging. He also did not attend the NHL combine.

“In the modern history of the draft, and certainly since the fall of Soviet Union and Iron Curtain, there’s never been an elite prospect that could go first or second overall that’s been less personally scouted by NHL GMs, execs, head scouts and any scouts not based in Russia,” said Bob McKenzie, a draft analyst for TSN. “That part is totally unprecedented.”

Even if a team is convinced of his greatness, there are other complications to drafting Michkov. He won’t be available to play in the NHL until at least 2026-27 due to his contractual commitment to SKA Saint Petersburg of the KHL. He’s also raised some eyebrows before the draft when reports indicated he was trying to maneuver himself to a certain team or teams in the first round.

Craig Button is a former NHL general manager and one of the NHL’s top draft analysts. When asked if he had ever seen anything like Michkov’s pre-draft machinations, he answered with two words: “Jaromir Jagr.”

In 1990, Jagr was one of the top prospects in the NHL draft talent pool. Teams at the top of the draft were interested in him. He was interested in joining Mario Lemieux and the Pittsburgh Penguins, who were selecting fifth overall.

Former Penguins GM Craig Patrick was initially surprised Jagr fell to the Penguins in the draft. He would reveal years later that Jagr had told the four teams picking ahead of Pittsburgh that he wasn’t leaving Czechoslovakia to join the NHL right away — but told the Penguins that he would join them immediately if they selected him. That was enough to scare off his other suitors and clear the way for Pittsburgh to draft one of the greatest players in NHL history.

That Michkov could attempt that kind of maneuver just adds to his mystery.

Since arriving in the U.S., he’s met with the Montreal Canadiens (No. 5 pick) and Philadelphia Flyers (No. 7 pick). It’s been speculated that the Washington Capitals (No. 8 pick) are very interested in drafting him. San Jose Sharks GM Mike Grier, who owns the No. 4 overall pick, would only say the team “met with all the Russian players that we wanted to meet with.” The Columbus Blue Jackets have indicated that they haven’t met with Michkov, and are focused on taking a center at No. 3 overall.

Everyone wants to know where the Russian phenom will end up — especially his peers.

“Everyone’s kind of in the same boat. Media, players, teams … you’re not sure where he is going to go,” said Zach Benson, a left wing with the Winnipeg Ice. “Wherever he goes, that team’s getting a good one.”

“Obviously it adds a different element to [the draft] and it’s something that doesn’t really happen every year,” said Nate Danielson, a center for the Brandon Wheat Kings. “It’ll be exciting to see what happens. I’m sure it’ll be a lot of craziness.”

Even the only player assured to go ahead of Michkov is intrigued by the mystery.

“I’m sure whoever takes him will be super lucky to have him,” Bedard said. “His talent is unbelievable.”

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